KeyVex › 2026 Midterms › Wisconsin

Follow the money into the midterms

26days to Election DayTuesday, Nov 3
Updated Oct 8, 10:20 PM ET
Data as of

Every federal race on the ballot, the money behind it, and what the incumbents do with their own money: campaign cash, outside spending, stock trades, estimated net worth and the federal dollars flowing into each state. Public records, refreshed twice a day.

  • Campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026
  • Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026
  • Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026
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Who holds the seats up in 2026

View as table
Senate raceSpecial election

Who holds the seat today. Not a forecast.

Source: Senate and House rosters, as of Sep 27, 2026

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

State report

Wisconsin

On the ballot Nov 3U.S. House (8 seats)Governor
Campaign totals mostly through Jul 22, 2026, each campaign through its latest report; outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

At a glance

Outside money
$12.1M$7.5M for, $4.6M against, including $12K from 1 filer not namedincludes $8.3M from 24/48-hour notices
#28 of 51Median state $13.1M
Campaign money (leading campaigns)
$29.4M2025-26 receipts of the leading campaigns in this state's 2026 racesAll filers: $36.5M
#21 of 51Median state $26.5M
Delegation trading (12 mo)
$9.9M est.45 trades by this state's members in the last 12 monthsOne member accounts for 100% of this
#7 of 51Median state $1.5M est.
Federal awards
$22.73BFY2025 contracts, grants and other assistance; per resident n/a (no population figure). Direct payments are shown apart, below

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

FEMA major disasters since 2021: 2Unemployment 3.2% (Aug 2026); US 4.1% (Aug 2026)

Source: FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026 and FEC campaign reports (2025-26 receipts), mostly through Jul 22, 2026; Senate and House periodic transaction reports disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; USAspending.gov (FY2025) and Census Bureau population estimates (Vintage 2025), as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Senate

No Senate race in 2026.

House races

8 races, 1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.

A race with an official list shows its candidates; a race marked "No official list yet" shows campaigns on file with the FEC, which can include candidates who lost primaries. Open a row for its campaigns: raised spent cash on hand, on one scale per race, through Jul 22, 2026 unless another date is shown.

Districts: outside money
None reportedUnder $250K$250K to $1M$1M to $5M$5M to $15M$15M or moreBorder: incumbent's party; dashed: openIncumbent traded (12 mo)
District 1Bryan SteilBryan Steil RNomineeBryan Steil R $5.5M / $6.3MMitchell Berman D $713K / $152K$1.6M00

Bryan Steil: Nominee source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Bryan Steil R Incumbent$5.5M raised · $1.4M spent · $6.3M cashincludes $2.2M transferred from the candidate's other committees · from PACs 30%
    Outside money: against $107K, for $919K, includes $1.0M from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: America First Agriculture Action Inc. $529K, No Going Back PAC Inc. $199K. Top against: In Union USA $97K, Working Families Party PAC $10K.
  • Mitchell Berman D$713K raised · $561K spent · $152K cashfrom PACs 3%
    Outside money: against $219K, for $374K, includes $593K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Progressive Turnout Project $241K, Somos PAC $85K. Top against: No Going Back PAC Inc. $215K, Civic Renewal Fund Inc. $4K.
Also filed with the FEC (12), $139K raised; $1K in outside money for or against them
District 2Mark PocanMark Pocan DNomineeMark Pocan D $815K / $884K<$1K00

Mark Pocan: Nominee source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Mark Pocan D Incumbent$815K raised · $933K spent · $884K cashfrom PACs 49%
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Sierra Club Independent Action <$1K.
Also filed with the FEC (2), $3K raised
District 3Derrick Van OrdenDerrick Van Orden RNomineeRebecca Cooke D $8.6M / $1.8MDerrick Van Orden R $7.5M / $4.7MAlexander Valiensi Kent I n/a / n/aRustin Levem Provance I n/a / n/a$5.5M00

Derrick Van Orden: Nominee source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Rebecca Cooke D$8.6M raised · $6.8M spent · $1.8M cashfrom PACs 6%
    Outside money: against $456K, for $693K, includes $874K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Pro-Choice Majority Action $249K, LCV Victory Fund $187K. Top against: Safety & Affordability PAC Inc. $187K, America PAC $161K. For: 1 filer not named: $12K.
  • Derrick Van Orden R Incumbent$7.5M raised · $3.4M spent · $4.7M cashincludes $2.1M transferred from the candidate's other committees · from PACs 13% · debts $182K
    Outside money: against $3.6M, for $728K, includes $4.1M from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: America First Agriculture Action Inc. $285K, Law Enforcement for a Safer America PAC $154K. Top against: HMP $1.9M, Edf Action Votes $746K.
  • Alexander Valiensi Kent IRegistered; no financial report on file yet
  • Rustin Levem Provance I Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (5), $761K raised; $2K in outside money for or against them
District 4Gwen MooreGwen Moore DNomineeGwen Moore D $1.1M / $29KArthur Burks I n/a / n/aTim Rogers R n/a / n/a$25K00

Gwen Moore: Nominee source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Gwen Moore D Incumbent$1.1M raised · $1.1M spent · $29K cashfrom PACs 64% · debts $4K
    Outside money: against $0, for $25K, includes $25K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Rolling Sea Action Fund $25K, Grassroots North Shore <$1K.
  • Arthur Burks INo FEC filing on file
  • Tim Rogers RRegistered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (3), $20K raised; <$1K in outside money for or against them
District 5 No official list yetScott FitzgeraldScott Fitzgerald RNot confirmed (2026 campaign on file; no official list names them yet)Scott Fitzgerald R $1.4M / $1.3MAndrew Beck D $15K / $3KNone00

No official candidate list read yet: these are campaigns on file with the FEC, which can include candidates who lost primaries.

Scott Fitzgerald: Not confirmed (2026 campaign on file; no official list names them yet). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Scott Fitzgerald R Incumbent$1.4M raised · $887K spent · $1.3M cashfrom PACs 63%
  • Andrew Beck D$15K raised · $12K spent · $3K cashthrough Jun 30, 2026 · debts <$1K
Also filed with the FEC (1), $6K raised
District 6Glenn GrothmanGlenn Grothman RNomineeGlenn Grothman R $929K / $830KMichael Thurow I $170K / $63KBradley Smith D $166K / $60KElizabeth Fitzgibbon I n/a / n/a<$1K00

Glenn Grothman: Nominee source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Glenn Grothman R Incumbent$929K raised · $622K spent · $830K cashfrom PACs 30% · debts $139K
  • Michael Thurow I$170K raised · $108K spent · $63K cashfrom PACs 5%
  • Bradley Smith D$166K raised · $106K spent · $60K cash
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Grassroots North Shore <$1K.
  • Elizabeth Fitzgibbon I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Matthew John Arndt Green Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (8), $98K raised
District 7Open seat outgoing:Thomas P. TiffanyThomas P. Tiffany RNot on the November ballotMichael Alfonso R $1.4M / $663KFred Clark D n/a / n/a$3.5M00

Thomas P. Tiffany: Not on the November ballot source. No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source)
  • Michael Alfonso R$1.4M raised · $688K spent · $663K cashfrom PACs 16%
    Outside money: against $199K, for $3.3M, includes $1.2M from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Northwoods Future PAC $3.1M, Americans 4 Security PAC $78K. Top against: American Future Fund Political Action $199K.
  • Fred Clark DNo FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (8), $5.9M raised; $1.5M in outside money for or against them
District 8Tony WiedTony Wied RNomineeTony Wied R $1.1M / $516KRick Crosson D $67K / $24KNone45$9.9M est.0

Tony Wied: Nominee source. 45 trades in the last 12 months, $9.9M est. Trades and net worth

  • Tony Wied R Incumbent$1.1M raised · $620K spent · $516K cashfrom PACs 55% · debts $634K
  • Rick Crosson D$67K raised · $42K spent · $24K cashfrom PACs 11%
Also filed with the FEC (3), $159K raised

Source: FEC campaign reports, 2025-26 receipts (mostly through Jul 22, 2026, each campaign through its latest report); FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026; House disclosures for incumbents' trades, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

The delegation's own money

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every current member from Wisconsin, including senators not up this year. Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate from the ranges filed.

Estimated volume by member (12 mo)

Tony Wied R$9.9M est.

No trades in the last 12 months: Bryan Steil, Derrick Van Orden, Glenn Grothman, Gwen Moore, Mark Pocan, Ron Johnson, Scott Fitzgerald, Tammy Baldwin, Thomas P. Tiffany

Purchases: 14Sales: 3145trades
  • Purchases14
  • Sales31
$9.9M est. across 45 trades

Most traded by this delegation

Tony Wied
Tony Wied RWisconsin · District 82026: Nominee source
45trades (12 mo)$9.9M est.volume0late (over 45 days)Apr 30, 2026last traded
14 purchases 31 sales
Net worth $9.3M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Contracting and Infrastructure
Bryan Steil
Bryan Steil RWisconsin · District 12026: Nominee source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $2.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Joint Committee of Congress on the Library · Chair, House Committee on House Administration · Chairman, Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
Derrick Van Orden
Derrick Van Orden RWisconsin · District 32026: Nominee source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, debts match or exceed assets, at midpoints. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Economic Opportunity · Vice Chair, Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry
Glenn Grothman
Glenn Grothman RWisconsin · District 62026: Nominee source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $3.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Health Care and Financial Services
Gwen Moore
Gwen Moore DWisconsin · District 42026: Nominee source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, newest report not readable yet. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Mark Pocan
Mark Pocan DWisconsin · District 22026: Nominee source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $3.8M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson RWisconsinSeat not up in 2026

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $79.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth · Chairman, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations · Chairman, Senate Committee on the Budget
Scott Fitzgerald
Scott Fitzgerald RWisconsin · District 5Not confirmed (2026 campaign on file; no official list names them yet)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $6.6M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, The Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust
Tammy Baldwin
Tammy Baldwin DWisconsinSeat not up in 2026

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $558K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, and Related Agencies · Ranking Member, Science, Manufacturing, and Competitiveness
Thomas P. Tiffany
Thomas P. Tiffany RWisconsin · District 72026: Not on the November ballot source

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $215K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Federal Lands
  • Names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some members may be under-counted.

Source: Senate eFD and House Clerk periodic transaction reports, trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; annual financial disclosures for net worth, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Federal money, disasters, jobs

Federal money, fiscal year 2025

Award obligations by place of performance; per resident uses Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates; direct payments apart
$22.73B in contracts, grants and other assistance
Contracts $6.26BGrants $16.31BOther assistance $152.5M

Direct payments: $90.29B. Not in the comparison above: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live.

Loans (face value): $9.50B

FEMA major disasters since 2021

One dot per disaster, by declaration date
20222023202420252026
Flood 2

Unemployment rate

Seasonally adjusted; the dashed line is the US
3.2% in Aug 2026 (preliminary); up 0.1 points from a year earlier. US 4.1% in Aug 2026. The national rate for Sep 2026 is 4.2%.
2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
Jan 2025Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026
WisconsinUS

Source: USAspending.gov, FY2025 (fetched Oct 7, 2026); Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; OpenFEMA, through Oct 2, 2026; BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, through Aug 2026; US rate from the Current Population Survey, through Sep 2026, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Notes on Wisconsin

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

FEC bulk files fetched Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; outside spending since Jan 1, 2025, through Oct 8, 2026.

Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026; roster as of Sep 27, 2026.

How we count, sources and notices

Where the money is going

Outside groups have reported $1.92B for or against 2026 candidates (including $1.13B counted from 24/48-hour notices); named spenders' purchases dated in the 4 weeks to Oct 4 come to $848.8M.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

Outside money by week

Named purchases by week, for and against. Spenders that are not named are in the total above but not in this chart.
For a candidateAgainst a candidateDashed line: the week so far. Dotted verticals: reports due Oct 15 and Oct 22, Election Day Nov 3. Shaded: the days left
Traders on the ballot

91 incumbents on the ballot reported trades in the last 12 months; the largest by estimated volume, Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R, IN-6), reported 17 trades worth about $207.0M (est.), 50% of the $413.0M (est.) all of them reported.

We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. Trades in the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate (est.).
Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; campaign receipts mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

All races and states

Every race, every state

Races

Every state, ranked

The 50 states and DC, sorted by any column, with the territories at the foot (not ranked). The same figures the map shows. Pick a row to open that state. Unemployment: the state's rate, and its difference from the US rate for the same month.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; federal awards FY2025; unemployment Aug 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every state, ranked by outside money; select a column header to sort
#
1TexasYes38 (13 open)$350.0Mn/a$168.8M949$73.1M est.36n/a4.4% (+0.3)7
2MichiganYes13 (3 open)$218.9Mn/a$70.3M506$5.3M est.3n/a5.0% (+0.9)4
3OhioSpecial15 (0 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$200.0Mn/a$91.1M237$2.5M est.11n/a3.3% (-0.8)2
4IowaYes4 (2 open)$107.9Mn/a$45.5M0None0n/a3.2% (-0.9)7
5North CarolinaYes14 (1 open)$94.0Mn/a$80.4M77$3.1M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)5
6MaineYes2 (1 open)$82.2Mn/a$20.4M17$301K est.1n/a3.2% (-0.9)8
7KentuckyYes6 (2 open)$75.8Mn/a$27.2M7$81K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)15
8New YorkNo26 (5 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$74.8Mn/a$145.2M20$797K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)9
9CaliforniaNo52 (4 open)$71.1Mn/a$156.7M4,701$169.0M est.72n/a5.1% (+1.0)16
10AlaskaYes1 (0 open)$65.3Mn/a$34.5M2$550K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)18
11IllinoisYes17 (2 open, plus 7 not yet confirmed)$57.5Mn/a$62.6M52$1.5M est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)4
12FloridaSpecial28 (7 open)$53.6Mn/a$90.5M348$9.8M est.3n/a4.5% (+0.4)10
13New HampshireYes2 (1 open)$50.7Mn/a$35.9M0None0n/a2.8% (-1.3)8
14GeorgiaYes14 (4 open)$43.4Mn/a$113.5M127$5.5M est.8n/a3.2% (-0.9)6
15South CarolinaYes7 (2 open)$28.5Mn/a$21.5M76$3.2M est.1n/a4.1% (0.0)5
16AlabamaYes7 (1 open)$28.3Mn/a$16.3M25$561K est.6n/a3.4% (-0.7)5
17MinnesotaYes8 (1 open)$28.2Mn/a$40.7M57$3.3M est.4n/a4.4% (+0.3)6
18PennsylvaniaNo17 (0 open, plus 3 not yet confirmed)$27.2Mn/a$67.1M338$66.5M est.1n/a3.7% (-0.4)2
19LouisianaYes6 (2 open)$27.2Mn/a$47.2M139$4.9M est.17n/a4.2% (+0.1)7
20NebraskaYes3 (1 open)$25.7Mn/a$26.5M1$8K est.0n/a2.9% (-1.2)12
21MontanaYes2 (1 open)$24.7Mn/a$10.7M2$83K est.2n/a3.2% (-0.9)13
22ColoradoYes8 (1 open)$24.2Mn/a$49.3M7$583K est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)4
23New JerseyYes12 (1 open)$19.1Mn/a$51.7M210$8.1M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
24ArizonaNo9 (0 open, plus 5 not yet confirmed)$17.4Mn/a$54.8M2$208K est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)8
25VirginiaYes11 (0 open)$13.9Mn/a$64.8M44$1.7M est.0n/a3.6% (-0.5)6
26MarylandNo8 (1 open)$13.1Mn/a$28.1M360$8.4M est.0n/a4.1% (0.0)1
27KansasYes4 (0 open)$12.8Mn/a$17.7M7$81K est.0n/a3.8% (-0.3)14
28WisconsinNo8 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$12.1Mn/a$29.4M45$9.9M est.0n/a3.2% (-0.9)2
29MassachusettsYes9 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$11.1Mn/a$29.0M46$4.6M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
30MissouriNo8 (1 open)$10.8Mn/a$19.8M19$2.3M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)14
31WyomingYes1 (1 open)$8.4Mn/a$4.1M0None0n/a3.0% (-1.1)2
32WashingtonNo10 (1 open)$8.2Mn/a$27.7M108$7.8M est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)11
33UtahNo4 (1 open)$5.4Mn/a$7.6M25$901K est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)2
34ArkansasYes4 (0 open)$5.0Mn/a$19.7M186$2.0M est.6n/a3.9% (-0.2)7
35MississippiYes4 (0 open)$4.5Mn/a$10.7M10$80K est.3n/a3.4% (-0.7)9
36NevadaNo4 (1 open)$4.2Mn/a$18.8M3$24K est.0n/a4.8% (+0.7)1
37OklahomaYes5 (1 open)$3.9Mn/a$19.4M892$45.5M est.693n/a4.3% (+0.2)11
38TennesseeYes9 (3 open)$3.6Mn/a$29.5M120$8.4M est.1n/a3.4% (-0.7)16
39ConnecticutNo5 (1 open)$2.6Mn/a$8.4M36$2.7M est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)3
40New MexicoYes3 (0 open)$2.4Mn/a$14.1M0None0n/a4.7% (+0.6)6
41South DakotaYes1 (1 open)$1.6Mn/a$5.7M1$3.0M est.1n/a2.0% (-2.1)12
42IndianaNo9 (0 open)$1.3Mn/a$20.5M22$207.1M est.0n/a3.3% (-0.8)3
43West VirginiaYes2 (0 open)$625Kn/a$8.0M40$50.4M est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)11
44OregonYes6 (0 open)$618Kn/a$15.3M1$8K est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)6
45District of ColumbiaNoDelegate$308Kn/a$833K1$33K est.0n/a5.7% (+1.6)0
46HawaiiNo2 (0 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$100Kn/a$3.4M5$40K est.1n/a2.7% (-1.4)6
47DelawareYes1 (0 open)$12Kn/a$9.4M1$175K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)2
48IdahoYes2 (0 open)$6Kn/a$6.1M0None0n/a3.6% (-0.5)4
49Rhode IslandYes2 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$9.7M38$932K est.0n/a3.7% (-0.4)4
49VermontNo1 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$1.0M0None0n/a2.6% (-1.5)9
51North DakotaNo1 (0 open)$0n/a$1.9M0None0n/a2.2% (-1.9)9
Puerto RicoNoNone in 2026No federal raceNo federal raceNo federal race0None0$3,164 (2020 Census)6.1% (+2.0)4
GuamNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$168K0None0$26,794 (2020 Census)n/a2
U.S. Virgin IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$713K0None0$116,856 (2020 Census)n/a1
American SamoaNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$39K0None0$8,658 (2020 Census)n/a1
Northern Mariana IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$81K0None0$1,964 (2020 Census)n/a3
Balance of power

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and the House 218 to 214.

Seats as held today. Not a forecast. 35 seats on the ballot. Control takes 51 seats, or 50 plus the Vice President's tie-break (R). Democrats and the independents who caucus with them would need a net gain of 4; Republicans can lose 3 and keep control. All 435 seats on the ballot. 218 seats make a majority. 69 seats have no incumbent on the ballot; in 22 more the incumbent is not yet confirmed.
Senate 100 seats, 35 up
House 435 seats, all up, 2 vacant
  • 53 R, 45 D, 2 ISenate seats held
  • 35Senate seats up: 22 R, 13 D
  • 82Open seats: 13 Senate, 69 House; plus 1 delegate race. 22 more not yet confirmed (0 Senate, 22 House)
  • FL, OHSpecial Senate elections
  • 4Appointed senators
  • 5 upDelegates; PR not up

How we count

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win. Every figure comes from a public record: FEC filings, congressional disclosures, USAspending.gov, BLS and FEMA. Trade volumes and net worth are estimates (est.) from the ranges filed.

Read the full method
Campaign money
Total receipts each 2026 House and Senate campaign reported to the FEC for the 2025-26 two-year period: the figure fec.gov shows when the 2026 two-year period is selected (a senator's candidate page opens on the six-year term, which also counts earlier years). Receipts include money transferred from a candidate's other committees, such as a joint fundraising committee or an earlier campaign. State and national totals subtract transfers between committees we already count, so no dollar is counted twice. A candidate with two FEC IDs is counted once. Totals run through each campaign's latest report; most run through June 30, 2026. Third-quarter reports (through September 30) are due October 15 and pre-general reports (through October 14) are due October 22.
Leading campaigns
The Democratic and the Republican campaign with the most receipts (the incumbent's, where the incumbent is on the ballot), plus any other campaign with at least 15% of the race leader's receipts. Where we cite an official list of the November ballot (most Senate races, and California's and Washington's House races, where two candidates of one party can meet), the candidates on it. Where a rival of the incumbent's own party raised more than the incumbent and no official source we cite settles the primary, both are listed. Other races can include candidates who lost a primary.
Outside money
Independent expenditures reported to the FEC for or against 2026 House and Senate candidates since January 1, 2025, from KeyVex's copy of FEC Schedule E: every line a filer reports, including purchases under $1,000 (amounts under $1,000 are shown as <$1K). A purchase reported on a 24- or 48-hour notice and again on a regular report is counted once, from the notice until KeyVex's copy has the regular report. Notices can be revised, and totals that include them can run ahead of FEC's own figures. Spenders that may be individuals are not named; their totals appear as one unnamed line and are left out of the weekly chart and the list of recent spending. Purchases for an earlier election, such as a 2025 special election, and purchases dated after Election Day are left out. Coordinated party spending is not included.
Trades
Periodic transaction reports filed with the Senate and the House (stocks, funds, bonds, notes and other securities), by trade date, for the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026. Dollar figures are midpoints of the ranges filed, so every volume is an estimate (est.). A Senate trade restated by an amendment, and a House trade on a re-filed report we have identified, is counted once; House amendments carry no marker, so a House trade filed again on a later report can be counted twice. Trades our identity check could not tie to the member are left out, and names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some totals are low.
Disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
Counted from the first report that listed the trade. The law sets 45 days after the transaction as the outer limit for reporting; this compares two dates printed on the filings and is not a finding that any law was broken. Dates more than two years apart are treated as a likely typo, listed as dates to verify and not counted.
Net worth (est.)
KeyVex's estimate from the member's latest annual financial disclosure: the midpoint of the listed asset ranges less the midpoint of the listed debts. The form does not list a member's home. Where the ranges cannot support a figure above zero we say why instead of showing a number.
Seats and status
Members from the congress-legislators roster, compiled from official sources, as of Sep 27, 2026. We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. A seat is listed as open when an official source we cite says the incumbent is not on the ballot, when the FEC lists the race as an open seat and the incumbent has no 2026 campaign of their own, when no incumbent filed for the district under its 2026 lines, or when the seat is vacant. Otherwise the incumbent is not confirmed, and we say what the FEC shows: a 2026 campaign on file, or none. Candidates on the November ballot are listed only with a link to an official election office's candidate list, ballot or results; "Nominee" marks a party's nominee, and candidates on Alaska's top-four ballot, California's and Washington's top-two ballots, or on the ballot by petition are marked "On the ballot".
Federal money
Fiscal year 2025 federal award obligations by place of performance, from USAspending.gov. The map and the table rank contracts, grants and other assistance per resident, using Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates (2020 Census counts for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands). Direct payments are shown apart in each state's report and left out of the ranking: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live. Loans are shown separately at face value.
Disasters
Major disaster declarations (FEMA declaration type DR) since 2021, counted once per disaster.
Unemployment
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, latest month (preliminary). National rate from the Current Population Survey.
District lines
Nine states use new district lines in 2026: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Missouri's new map is not in effect. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.
Louisiana
Each Louisiana House race is an open primary on Nov 3, with a runoff on Dec 12 if no one wins a majority: every candidate on that ballot is marked "On the ballot".

Sources

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026. Roster as of Sep 27, 2026. Government statistics fetched Oct 7, 2026; FEMA declarations through Oct 2, 2026. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation.

Notices

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.
  • State boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files via us-atlas (ISC license, copyright Michael Bostock).