Follow the money into the midterms
Who holds the seats up in 2026
Who holds the seat today. Not a forecast.
Source: Senate and House rosters, as of Sep 27, 2026
KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.
House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.
Where the money is going
Outside money by week
91 incumbents on the ballot reported trades in the last 12 months; the largest by estimated volume, Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R, IN-6), reported 17 trades worth about $207.0M (est.), 50% of the $413.0M (est.) all of them reported.
House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.
Every race, every state
Races
Every state, ranked
House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.
| # | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | Yes | 38 (13 open) | $350.0M | n/a | $168.8M | 949 | $73.1M est. | 36 | n/a | 4.4% (+0.3) | 7 |
| 2 | Michigan | Yes | 13 (3 open) | $218.9M | n/a | $70.3M | 506 | $5.3M est. | 3 | n/a | 5.0% (+0.9) | 4 |
| 3 | Ohio | Special | 15 (0 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed) | $200.0M | n/a | $91.1M | 237 | $2.5M est. | 11 | n/a | 3.3% (-0.8) | 2 |
| 4 | Iowa | Yes | 4 (2 open) | $107.9M | n/a | $45.5M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 3.2% (-0.9) | 7 |
| 5 | North Carolina | Yes | 14 (1 open) | $94.0M | n/a | $80.4M | 77 | $3.1M est. | 0 | n/a | 3.5% (-0.6) | 5 |
| 6 | Maine | Yes | 2 (1 open) | $82.2M | n/a | $20.4M | 17 | $301K est. | 1 | n/a | 3.2% (-0.9) | 8 |
| 7 | Kentucky | Yes | 6 (2 open) | $75.8M | n/a | $27.2M | 7 | $81K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.7% (+0.6) | 15 |
| 8 | New York | No | 26 (5 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed) | $74.8M | n/a | $145.2M | 20 | $797K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.3% (+0.2) | 9 |
| 9 | California | No | 52 (4 open) | $71.1M | n/a | $156.7M | 4,701 | $169.0M est. | 72 | n/a | 5.1% (+1.0) | 16 |
| 10 | Alaska | Yes | 1 (0 open) | $65.3M | n/a | $34.5M | 2 | $550K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.3% (+0.2) | 18 |
| 11 | Illinois | Yes | 17 (2 open, plus 7 not yet confirmed) | $57.5M | n/a | $62.6M | 52 | $1.5M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.7% (+0.6) | 4 |
| 12 | Florida | Special | 28 (7 open) | $53.6M | n/a | $90.5M | 348 | $9.8M est. | 3 | n/a | 4.5% (+0.4) | 10 |
| 13 | New Hampshire | Yes | 2 (1 open) | $50.7M | n/a | $35.9M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 2.8% (-1.3) | 8 |
| 14 | Georgia | Yes | 14 (4 open) | $43.4M | n/a | $113.5M | 127 | $5.5M est. | 8 | n/a | 3.2% (-0.9) | 6 |
| 15 | South Carolina | Yes | 7 (2 open) | $28.5M | n/a | $21.5M | 76 | $3.2M est. | 1 | n/a | 4.1% (0.0) | 5 |
| 16 | Alabama | Yes | 7 (1 open) | $28.3M | n/a | $16.3M | 25 | $561K est. | 6 | n/a | 3.4% (-0.7) | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota | Yes | 8 (1 open) | $28.2M | n/a | $40.7M | 57 | $3.3M est. | 4 | n/a | 4.4% (+0.3) | 6 |
| 18 | Pennsylvania | No | 17 (0 open, plus 3 not yet confirmed) | $27.2M | n/a | $67.1M | 338 | $66.5M est. | 1 | n/a | 3.7% (-0.4) | 2 |
| 19 | Louisiana | Yes | 6 (2 open) | $27.2M | n/a | $47.2M | 139 | $4.9M est. | 17 | n/a | 4.2% (+0.1) | 7 |
| 20 | Nebraska | Yes | 3 (1 open) | $25.7M | n/a | $26.5M | 1 | $8K est. | 0 | n/a | 2.9% (-1.2) | 12 |
| 21 | Montana | Yes | 2 (1 open) | $24.7M | n/a | $10.7M | 2 | $83K est. | 2 | n/a | 3.2% (-0.9) | 13 |
| 22 | Colorado | Yes | 8 (1 open) | $24.2M | n/a | $49.3M | 7 | $583K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.0% (-0.1) | 4 |
| 23 | New Jersey | Yes | 12 (1 open) | $19.1M | n/a | $51.7M | 210 | $8.1M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.3% (+0.2) | 3 |
| 24 | Arizona | No | 9 (0 open, plus 5 not yet confirmed) | $17.4M | n/a | $54.8M | 2 | $208K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.9% (+0.8) | 8 |
| 25 | Virginia | Yes | 11 (0 open) | $13.9M | n/a | $64.8M | 44 | $1.7M est. | 0 | n/a | 3.6% (-0.5) | 6 |
| 26 | Maryland | No | 8 (1 open) | $13.1M | n/a | $28.1M | 360 | $8.4M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.1% (0.0) | 1 |
| 27 | Kansas | Yes | 4 (0 open) | $12.8M | n/a | $17.7M | 7 | $81K est. | 0 | n/a | 3.8% (-0.3) | 14 |
| 28 | Wisconsin | No | 8 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed) | $12.1M | n/a | $29.4M | 45 | $9.9M est. | 0 | n/a | 3.2% (-0.9) | 2 |
| 29 | Massachusetts | Yes | 9 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed) | $11.1M | n/a | $29.0M | 46 | $4.6M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.3% (+0.2) | 3 |
| 30 | Missouri | No | 8 (1 open) | $10.8M | n/a | $19.8M | 19 | $2.3M est. | 0 | n/a | 3.5% (-0.6) | 14 |
| 31 | Wyoming | Yes | 1 (1 open) | $8.4M | n/a | $4.1M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 3.0% (-1.1) | 2 |
| 32 | Washington | No | 10 (1 open) | $8.2M | n/a | $27.7M | 108 | $7.8M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.9% (+0.8) | 11 |
| 33 | Utah | No | 4 (1 open) | $5.4M | n/a | $7.6M | 25 | $901K est. | 0 | n/a | 3.5% (-0.6) | 2 |
| 34 | Arkansas | Yes | 4 (0 open) | $5.0M | n/a | $19.7M | 186 | $2.0M est. | 6 | n/a | 3.9% (-0.2) | 7 |
| 35 | Mississippi | Yes | 4 (0 open) | $4.5M | n/a | $10.7M | 10 | $80K est. | 3 | n/a | 3.4% (-0.7) | 9 |
| 36 | Nevada | No | 4 (1 open) | $4.2M | n/a | $18.8M | 3 | $24K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.8% (+0.7) | 1 |
| 37 | Oklahoma | Yes | 5 (1 open) | $3.9M | n/a | $19.4M | 892 | $45.5M est. | 693 | n/a | 4.3% (+0.2) | 11 |
| 38 | Tennessee | Yes | 9 (3 open) | $3.6M | n/a | $29.5M | 120 | $8.4M est. | 1 | n/a | 3.4% (-0.7) | 16 |
| 39 | Connecticut | No | 5 (1 open) | $2.6M | n/a | $8.4M | 36 | $2.7M est. | 0 | n/a | 5.1% (+1.0) | 3 |
| 40 | New Mexico | Yes | 3 (0 open) | $2.4M | n/a | $14.1M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 4.7% (+0.6) | 6 |
| 41 | South Dakota | Yes | 1 (1 open) | $1.6M | n/a | $5.7M | 1 | $3.0M est. | 1 | n/a | 2.0% (-2.1) | 12 |
| 42 | Indiana | No | 9 (0 open) | $1.3M | n/a | $20.5M | 22 | $207.1M est. | 0 | n/a | 3.3% (-0.8) | 3 |
| 43 | West Virginia | Yes | 2 (0 open) | $625K | n/a | $8.0M | 40 | $50.4M est. | 0 | n/a | 4.0% (-0.1) | 11 |
| 44 | Oregon | Yes | 6 (0 open) | $618K | n/a | $15.3M | 1 | $8K est. | 0 | n/a | 5.1% (+1.0) | 6 |
| 45 | District of Columbia | No | Delegate | $308K | n/a | $833K | 1 | $33K est. | 0 | n/a | 5.7% (+1.6) | 0 |
| 46 | Hawaii | No | 2 (0 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed) | $100K | n/a | $3.4M | 5 | $40K est. | 1 | n/a | 2.7% (-1.4) | 6 |
| 47 | Delaware | Yes | 1 (0 open) | $12K | n/a | $9.4M | 1 | $175K est. | 0 | n/a | 4.7% (+0.6) | 2 |
| 48 | Idaho | Yes | 2 (0 open) | $6K | n/a | $6.1M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 3.6% (-0.5) | 4 |
| 49 | Rhode Island | Yes | 2 (0 open) | <$1K | n/a | $9.7M | 38 | $932K est. | 0 | n/a | 3.7% (-0.4) | 4 |
| 49 | Vermont | No | 1 (0 open) | <$1K | n/a | $1.0M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 2.6% (-1.5) | 9 |
| 51 | North Dakota | No | 1 (0 open) | $0 | n/a | $1.9M | 0 | None | 0 | n/a | 2.2% (-1.9) | 9 |
| Puerto Rico | No | None in 2026 | No federal race | No federal race | No federal race | 0 | None | 0 | $3,164 (2020 Census) | 6.1% (+2.0) | 4 | |
| Guam | No | Delegate | $0 | $0.00 (2020 Census) | $168K | 0 | None | 0 | $26,794 (2020 Census) | n/a | 2 | |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | No | Delegate | $0 | $0.00 (2020 Census) | $713K | 0 | None | 0 | $116,856 (2020 Census) | n/a | 1 | |
| American Samoa | No | Delegate | $0 | $0.00 (2020 Census) | $39K | 0 | None | 0 | $8,658 (2020 Census) | n/a | 1 | |
| Northern Mariana Islands | No | Delegate | $0 | $0.00 (2020 Census) | $81K | 0 | None | 0 | $1,964 (2020 Census) | n/a | 3 | |
Browse a state
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and the House 218 to 214.
- 53 R, 45 D, 2 ISenate seats held
- 35Senate seats up: 22 R, 13 D
- 82Open seats: 13 Senate, 69 House; plus 1 delegate race. 22 more not yet confirmed (0 Senate, 22 House)
- FL, OHSpecial Senate elections
- 4Appointed senators
- 5 upDelegates; PR not up
How we count
KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win. Every figure comes from a public record: FEC filings, congressional disclosures, USAspending.gov, BLS and FEMA. Trade volumes and net worth are estimates (est.) from the ranges filed.
Read the full method
- Campaign money
- Total receipts each 2026 House and Senate campaign reported to the FEC for the 2025-26 two-year period: the figure fec.gov shows when the 2026 two-year period is selected (a senator's candidate page opens on the six-year term, which also counts earlier years). Receipts include money transferred from a candidate's other committees, such as a joint fundraising committee or an earlier campaign. State and national totals subtract transfers between committees we already count, so no dollar is counted twice. A candidate with two FEC IDs is counted once. Totals run through each campaign's latest report; most run through June 30, 2026. Third-quarter reports (through September 30) are due October 15 and pre-general reports (through October 14) are due October 22.
- Leading campaigns
- The Democratic and the Republican campaign with the most receipts (the incumbent's, where the incumbent is on the ballot), plus any other campaign with at least 15% of the race leader's receipts. Where we cite an official list of the November ballot (most Senate races, and California's and Washington's House races, where two candidates of one party can meet), the candidates on it. Where a rival of the incumbent's own party raised more than the incumbent and no official source we cite settles the primary, both are listed. Other races can include candidates who lost a primary.
- Outside money
- Independent expenditures reported to the FEC for or against 2026 House and Senate candidates since January 1, 2025, from KeyVex's copy of FEC Schedule E: every line a filer reports, including purchases under $1,000 (amounts under $1,000 are shown as <$1K). A purchase reported on a 24- or 48-hour notice and again on a regular report is counted once, from the notice until KeyVex's copy has the regular report. Notices can be revised, and totals that include them can run ahead of FEC's own figures. Spenders that may be individuals are not named; their totals appear as one unnamed line and are left out of the weekly chart and the list of recent spending. Purchases for an earlier election, such as a 2025 special election, and purchases dated after Election Day are left out. Coordinated party spending is not included.
- Trades
- Periodic transaction reports filed with the Senate and the House (stocks, funds, bonds, notes and other securities), by trade date, for the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026. Dollar figures are midpoints of the ranges filed, so every volume is an estimate (est.). A Senate trade restated by an amendment, and a House trade on a re-filed report we have identified, is counted once; House amendments carry no marker, so a House trade filed again on a later report can be counted twice. Trades our identity check could not tie to the member are left out, and names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some totals are low.
- Disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
- Counted from the first report that listed the trade. The law sets 45 days after the transaction as the outer limit for reporting; this compares two dates printed on the filings and is not a finding that any law was broken. Dates more than two years apart are treated as a likely typo, listed as dates to verify and not counted.
- Net worth (est.)
- KeyVex's estimate from the member's latest annual financial disclosure: the midpoint of the listed asset ranges less the midpoint of the listed debts. The form does not list a member's home. Where the ranges cannot support a figure above zero we say why instead of showing a number.
- Seats and status
- Members from the congress-legislators roster, compiled from official sources, as of Sep 27, 2026. We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. A seat is listed as open when an official source we cite says the incumbent is not on the ballot, when the FEC lists the race as an open seat and the incumbent has no 2026 campaign of their own, when no incumbent filed for the district under its 2026 lines, or when the seat is vacant. Otherwise the incumbent is not confirmed, and we say what the FEC shows: a 2026 campaign on file, or none. Candidates on the November ballot are listed only with a link to an official election office's candidate list, ballot or results; "Nominee" marks a party's nominee, and candidates on Alaska's top-four ballot, California's and Washington's top-two ballots, or on the ballot by petition are marked "On the ballot".
- Federal money
- Fiscal year 2025 federal award obligations by place of performance, from USAspending.gov. The map and the table rank contracts, grants and other assistance per resident, using Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates (2020 Census counts for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands). Direct payments are shown apart in each state's report and left out of the ranking: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live. Loans are shown separately at face value.
- Disasters
- Major disaster declarations (FEMA declaration type DR) since 2021, counted once per disaster.
- Unemployment
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, latest month (preliminary). National rate from the Current Population Survey.
- District lines
- Nine states use new district lines in 2026: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Missouri's new map is not in effect. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.
- Louisiana
- Each Louisiana House race is an open primary on Nov 3, with a runoff on Dec 12 if no one wins a majority: every candidate on that ballot is marked "On the ballot".
Sources
- FEC bulk data: House and Senate current campaigns (webl26) and candidate master (cn26) Public domain (U.S. government work), fetched Oct 8, 2026; most campaigns report through Jun 30, 2026
- FEC Schedule E independent expenditures (KeyVex's copy) Public domain (U.S. government work), as of Oct 8, 2026
- Periodic transaction reports, Senate and House Public record (Ethics in Government Act), as of Oct 7, 2026
- Annual financial disclosure reports, Senate and House Public record (Ethics in Government Act), as of Oct 8, 2026
- Members of Congress (congress-legislators, compiled from official sources) CC0, as of Sep 27, 2026
- Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 state population estimates (NST-EST2025) Public domain (U.S. government work)
- USAspending.gov, FY2025 award obligations by place of performance Public domain (U.S. government work), as of Oct 7, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (seasonally adjusted) Public domain (U.S. government work), as of Aug 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, national unemployment rate (Current Population Survey) Public domain (U.S. government work), as of Sep 2026
- FEMA disaster declarations (OpenFEMA), major disasters (DR) OpenFEMA terms, as of Oct 2, 2026
- State boundaries: Census cartographic boundary files via us-atlas ISC, as of 2017
Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026. Roster as of Sep 27, 2026. Government statistics fetched Oct 7, 2026; FEMA declarations through Oct 2, 2026. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation.
Notices
- This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
- This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
- BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
- This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
- Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.
- State boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files via us-atlas (ISC license, copyright Michael Bostock).
