KeyVex › 2026 Midterms › Minnesota

Follow the money into the midterms

26days to Election DayTuesday, Nov 3
Updated Oct 8, 10:20 PM ET
Data as of

Every federal race on the ballot, the money behind it, and what the incumbents do with their own money: campaign cash, outside spending, stock trades, estimated net worth and the federal dollars flowing into each state. Public records, refreshed twice a day.

  • Campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026
  • Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026
  • Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026
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Who holds the seats up in 2026

View as table
Senate raceSpecial election

Who holds the seat today. Not a forecast.

Source: Senate and House rosters, as of Sep 27, 2026

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

State report

Minnesota

On the ballot Nov 3U.S. SenateU.S. House (8 seats)Governor
Campaign totals through Jul 22, 2026; outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

At a glance

Outside money
$28.2M$16.3M for, $11.9M againstincludes $4.9M from 24/48-hour notices
#17 of 51Median state $13.1M
Campaign money (leading campaigns)
$40.7M2025-26 receipts of the leading campaigns in this state's 2026 racesAll filers: $61.3M
#17 of 51Median state $26.5M
Delegation trading (12 mo)
$3.3M est.57 trades by this state's members in the last 12 months; 4 disclosed more than 45 days after the tradeOne member accounts for 57% of this
#17 of 51Median state $1.5M est.
Federal awards
$24.83BFY2025 contracts, grants and other assistance; per resident n/a (no population figure). Direct payments are shown apart, below

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

FEMA major disasters since 2021: 6Unemployment 4.4% (Aug 2026); US 4.1% (Aug 2026)

Source: FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026 and FEC campaign reports (2025-26 receipts), through Jul 22, 2026; Senate and House periodic transaction reports disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; USAspending.gov (FY2025) and Census Bureau population estimates (Vintage 2025), as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Senate (Class II)

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source (TXT))
Tina Smith
Not on the November ballot source (TXT)
9 trades in the last 12 months, $1.4M est.
Net worth $4.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Housing, Transportation, and Community Development · Ranking Member, Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth

On the November ballot

Peggy Flanagan D Nominee source (TXT)
Raised $6.5MSpent $5.5MCash $1.1Mthrough Jul 22, 2026
from PACs 3%
Against $7.4MOutside moneyFor $1.5M
includes $1.6M from 24/48-hour notices
Top spenders

For

  1. DLGAHybrid PAC · 9 purchases · latest Aug 7, 2026$1.1M filing
  2. North Star Dawn PACSuper PAC · 1 purchase · latest Jul 24, 2026$200K filing
  3. Clear Voice MinnesotaSuper PAC · 5 purchases · latest Aug 6, 2026$133K filing
  4. Indivisible ActionHybrid PAC · 8 purchases · latest Aug 10, 2026$36K filing
  5. National Nurses United for Patient ProtectionSuper PAC · 1 purchase · latest Jul 20, 2026$25K filing

Against

  1. North Star Dawn PACSuper PAC · 18 purchases · latest Aug 3, 2026$6.0M filing
  2. Unite to WinSuper PAC · 2 purchases · latest Jun 24, 2026$1.0M filing
  3. Minnesota ForwardSuper PAC · 7 purchases · latest Sep 30, 2026$395K filing
Michele Tafoya R Nominee source (TXT)
Raised $5.3MSpent $4.0MCash $1.4Mthrough Jul 22, 2026
from PACs 3% · debts $295K
Against $444KOutside moneyFor $20K
Top spenders

For

  1. Minnesota ForwardSuper PAC · 4 purchases · latest Jun 24, 2026$20K filing

Against

  1. Sheepdog PACHybrid PAC · 17 purchases · latest Aug 4, 2026$444K filing
Rebecca Whiting Libertarian Nominee source (TXT)
Raised $1KSpent $0Cash $1Kthrough Jul 22, 2026
Marisa Simonetti I On the ballot source (TXT)
Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (15), $15.6M raised; $12.8M in outside money for or against them

Source: FEC campaign reports, 2025-26 receipts (through Jul 22, 2026); FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026; Senate disclosures for the incumbent's trades and net worth, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

House races

8 races, 1 open. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.

Each race shows the candidates on its official November list. Open a row for its campaigns: raised spent cash on hand, on one scale per race, through Jul 22, 2026 unless another date is shown.

Districts: outside money
None reportedUnder $250K$250K to $1M$1M to $5M$5M to $15M$15M or moreBorder: incumbent's party; dashed: openIncumbent traded (12 mo)
District 1Brad FinstadBrad Finstad RNomineeBrad Finstad R $2.0M / $1.3MJacob Johnson D $2.0M / $1.0M$1.7M00

Brad Finstad: Nominee source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Brad Finstad R Incumbent$2.0M raised · $808K spent · $1.3M cashincludes $235K transferred from the candidate's other committees · from PACs 48%
    Outside money: against $1.7M, for $42K, includes $1.7M from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Save American Freedom $42K. Top against: Your Community PAC $1.5M, LCV Victory Fund $133K.
  • Jacob Johnson D$2.0M raised · $989K spent · $1.0M cashfrom PACs 5%
    Outside money: against $8K, for $42K, includes $48K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Progressive Turnout Project $39K, Takeaction MN Federal Fund $3K. Top against: Save American Freedom $8K.
Also filed with the FEC (4), $80K raised
District 2Open seat outgoing:Angie CraigAngie Craig DNot on the November ballotMatt Little D $923K / $128KEric Pratt R $511K / $254K$493K00

Angie Craig: Not on the November ballot source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source (TXT))
  • Matt Little D$923K raised · $796K spent · $128K cashfrom PACs 4% · debts $131K
    Outside money: against $17K, for $475K, includes $81K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Medicare for All $200K, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC $150K. Top against: In Union USA $17K.
  • Eric Pratt R$511K raised · $257K spent · $254K cashfrom PACs 8% · debts $105K
Also filed with the FEC (8), $3.7M raised; $3.6M in outside money for or against them
District 3Kelly MorrisonKelly Morrison DNomineeKelly Morrison D $1.4M / $414KTyler Michael Bass R n/a / n/aNone47$1.9M est.4

Kelly Morrison: Nominee source (TXT). 47 trades in the last 12 months, $1.9M est., 4 disclosed more than 45 days after the trade. Trades and net worth

  • Kelly Morrison D Incumbent$1.4M raised · $973K spent · $414K cashfrom PACs 15%
  • Tyler Michael Bass RRegistered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (1), $265K raised
District 4Betty McCollumBetty McCollum DNomineeBetty McCollum D $1.3M / $499KPaul Wikstrom R $28K / $2K<$1K00

Betty McCollum: Nominee source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Betty McCollum D Incumbent$1.3M raised · $1.3M spent · $499K cashfrom PACs 37%
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Sierra Club Independent Action <$1K.
  • Paul Wikstrom R$28K raised · $15K spent · $2K cash
Also filed with the FEC (2), $61K raised
District 5Ilhan OmarIlhan Omar DNomineeIlhan Omar D $5.8M / $1.3MJohn Nagel R $747K / $47KDeVelle L. Jackson I n/a / n/a<$1K00

Ilhan Omar: Nominee source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Ilhan Omar D Incumbent$5.8M raised · $4.8M spent · $1.3M cashfrom PACs 1%
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Takeaction MN Federal Fund <$1K, The People United PAC <$1K.
  • John Nagel R$747K raised · $700K spent · $47K cashdebts $33K
  • DeVelle L. Jackson INo FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (4), $1.2M raised
District 6Tom EmmerTom Emmer RNomineeTom Emmer R $9.8M / $4.5MDoug Chapin D $439K / $70K<$1K00

Tom Emmer: Nominee source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Tom Emmer R Incumbent$9.8M raised · $7.0M spent · $4.5M cashincludes $4.9M transferred from the candidate's other committees · from PACs 23%
    Outside money: against <$1K, for $0. Top against: Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party <$1K.
  • Doug Chapin D$439K raised · $368K spent · $70K cashfrom PACs 2% · debts $50K
Also filed with the FEC (6), $32K raised
District 7Michelle FischbachMichelle Fischbach RNomineeMichelle Fischbach R $1.3M / $920KErik Osberg D $335K / $114K<$1K00

Michelle Fischbach: Nominee source (TXT). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Michelle Fischbach R Incumbent$1.3M raised · $777K spent · $920K cashfrom PACs 57%
    Outside money: against <$1K, for $0. Top against: Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party <$1K.
  • Erik Osberg D$335K raised · $221K spent · $114K cash
Also filed with the FEC (3), $88K raised
District 8Pete StauberPete Stauber RNomineePete Stauber R $2.0M / $1.2MTrina Swanson D $317K / $90K<$1K1$33K est.0

Pete Stauber: Nominee source (TXT). 1 trade in the last 12 months, $33K est. Trades and net worth

  • Pete Stauber R Incumbent$2.0M raised · $1.3M spent · $1.2M cashfrom PACs 47%
    Outside money: against <$1K, for $0. Top against: Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party <$1K.
  • Trina Swanson D$317K raised · $226K spent · $90K cashfrom PACs 3%
Also filed with the FEC (7), $240K raised; $47K in outside money for or against them

Source: FEC campaign reports, 2025-26 receipts (through Jul 22, 2026); FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026; House disclosures for incumbents' trades, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

The delegation's own money

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every current member from Minnesota, including senators not up this year. Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate from the ranges filed.

Estimated volume by member (12 mo)

Kelly Morrison D$1.9M est.Tina Smith D$1.4M est.Pete Stauber R$33K est.

No trades in the last 12 months: Amy Klobuchar, Angie Craig, Betty McCollum, Brad Finstad, Ilhan Omar, Michelle Fischbach, Tom Emmer

Purchases: 23Sales: 29Exchanges: 557trades
  • Purchases23
  • Sales29
  • Exchanges5
$3.3M est. across 57 trades; 4 disclosed more than 45 days after the trade

Most traded by this delegation

Kelly Morrison
Kelly Morrison DMinnesota · District 32026: Nominee source (TXT)
47trades (12 mo)$1.9M est.volume4late (over 45 days)Aug 11, 2026last traded
22 purchases 20 sales 5 exchanges
ASHGY4ACN3AJG3
Net worth $39.2M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Rural Development, Energy, and Supply Chains
4 trades disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
  • ANDG $250,001 - $500,000Traded Jan 20, 2026, first disclosed Apr 2, 2026, 72 days · filing
  • Cavall $1,001 - $15,000Traded Dec 22, 2025, first disclosed Apr 2, 2026, 101 days · filing
  • FluxAI $15,001 - $50,000Traded Dec 22, 2025, first disclosed Apr 2, 2026, 101 days · filing
  • ANDG $50,001 - $100,000Traded Oct 15, 2025, first disclosed Apr 2, 2026, 169 days · filing
Tina Smith
Tina Smith DMinnesota2026: Not on the November ballot source (TXT)
9trades (12 mo)$1.4M est.volume0late (over 45 days)May 7, 2026last traded
0 purchases 9 sales
Net worth $4.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Housing, Transportation, and Community Development · Ranking Member, Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth
Pete Stauber
Pete Stauber RMinnesota · District 82026: Nominee source (TXT)
1trade (12 mo)$33K est.volume0late (over 45 days)Oct 27, 2025last traded
1 purchase 0 sales
Net worth $722K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Energy and Mineral Resources
Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar DMinnesotaSeat not up in 2026

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $2.3M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry · Ranking Member, Privacy, Technology, and the Law
Angie Craig
Angie Craig DMinnesota · District 22026: Not on the November ballot source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, newest report not readable yet. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, House Committee on Agriculture
Betty McCollum
Betty McCollum DMinnesota · District 42026: Nominee source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, no asset with a stated value. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Defense
Brad Finstad
Brad Finstad RMinnesota · District 12026: Nominee source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $7.0M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Nutrition and Foreign Agriculture
Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar DMinnesota · District 52026: Nominee source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $8K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Ranking Member, Workforce Protections
Michelle Fischbach
Michelle Fischbach RMinnesota · District 72026: Nominee source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $192K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Rules and Organization of the House
Tom Emmer
Tom Emmer RMinnesota · District 62026: Nominee source (TXT)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, newest report not readable yet. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Vice Chairman, Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
  • Names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some members may be under-counted.

Source: Senate eFD and House Clerk periodic transaction reports, trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; annual financial disclosures for net worth, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Federal money, disasters, jobs

Federal money, fiscal year 2025

Award obligations by place of performance; per resident uses Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates; direct payments apart
$24.83B in contracts, grants and other assistance
Contracts $2.49BGrants $21.42BOther assistance $916.7M

Direct payments: $217.34B. Not in the comparison above: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live.

Loans (face value): $5.29B

FEMA major disasters since 2021

One dot per disaster, by declaration date
20222023202420252026
Flood 3Severe Storm 2Other 1

Unemployment rate

Seasonally adjusted; the dashed line is the US
4.4% in Aug 2026 (preliminary); up 0.5 points from a year earlier. US 4.1% in Aug 2026. The national rate for Sep 2026 is 4.2%.
3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
Jan 2025Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026
MinnesotaUS

Source: USAspending.gov, FY2025 (fetched Oct 7, 2026); Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; OpenFEMA, through Oct 2, 2026; BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, through Aug 2026; US rate from the Current Population Survey, through Sep 2026, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Notes on Minnesota

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

FEC bulk files fetched Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; outside spending since Jan 1, 2025, through Oct 8, 2026.

Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026; roster as of Sep 27, 2026.

How we count, sources and notices

Where the money is going

Outside groups have reported $1.92B for or against 2026 candidates (including $1.13B counted from 24/48-hour notices); named spenders' purchases dated in the 4 weeks to Oct 4 come to $848.8M.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

Outside money by week

Named purchases by week, for and against. Spenders that are not named are in the total above but not in this chart.
For a candidateAgainst a candidateDashed line: the week so far. Dotted verticals: reports due Oct 15 and Oct 22, Election Day Nov 3. Shaded: the days left
Traders on the ballot

91 incumbents on the ballot reported trades in the last 12 months; the largest by estimated volume, Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R, IN-6), reported 17 trades worth about $207.0M (est.), 50% of the $413.0M (est.) all of them reported.

We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. Trades in the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate (est.).
Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; campaign receipts mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

All races and states

Every race, every state

Races

Every state, ranked

The 50 states and DC, sorted by any column, with the territories at the foot (not ranked). The same figures the map shows. Pick a row to open that state. Unemployment: the state's rate, and its difference from the US rate for the same month.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; federal awards FY2025; unemployment Aug 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every state, ranked by outside money; select a column header to sort
#
1TexasYes38 (13 open)$350.0Mn/a$168.8M949$73.1M est.36n/a4.4% (+0.3)7
2MichiganYes13 (3 open)$218.9Mn/a$70.3M506$5.3M est.3n/a5.0% (+0.9)4
3OhioSpecial15 (0 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$200.0Mn/a$91.1M237$2.5M est.11n/a3.3% (-0.8)2
4IowaYes4 (2 open)$107.9Mn/a$45.5M0None0n/a3.2% (-0.9)7
5North CarolinaYes14 (1 open)$94.0Mn/a$80.4M77$3.1M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)5
6MaineYes2 (1 open)$82.2Mn/a$20.4M17$301K est.1n/a3.2% (-0.9)8
7KentuckyYes6 (2 open)$75.8Mn/a$27.2M7$81K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)15
8New YorkNo26 (5 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$74.8Mn/a$145.2M20$797K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)9
9CaliforniaNo52 (4 open)$71.1Mn/a$156.7M4,701$169.0M est.72n/a5.1% (+1.0)16
10AlaskaYes1 (0 open)$65.3Mn/a$34.5M2$550K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)18
11IllinoisYes17 (2 open, plus 7 not yet confirmed)$57.5Mn/a$62.6M52$1.5M est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)4
12FloridaSpecial28 (7 open)$53.6Mn/a$90.5M348$9.8M est.3n/a4.5% (+0.4)10
13New HampshireYes2 (1 open)$50.7Mn/a$35.9M0None0n/a2.8% (-1.3)8
14GeorgiaYes14 (4 open)$43.4Mn/a$113.5M127$5.5M est.8n/a3.2% (-0.9)6
15South CarolinaYes7 (2 open)$28.5Mn/a$21.5M76$3.2M est.1n/a4.1% (0.0)5
16AlabamaYes7 (1 open)$28.3Mn/a$16.3M25$561K est.6n/a3.4% (-0.7)5
17MinnesotaYes8 (1 open)$28.2Mn/a$40.7M57$3.3M est.4n/a4.4% (+0.3)6
18PennsylvaniaNo17 (0 open, plus 3 not yet confirmed)$27.2Mn/a$67.1M338$66.5M est.1n/a3.7% (-0.4)2
19LouisianaYes6 (2 open)$27.2Mn/a$47.2M139$4.9M est.17n/a4.2% (+0.1)7
20NebraskaYes3 (1 open)$25.7Mn/a$26.5M1$8K est.0n/a2.9% (-1.2)12
21MontanaYes2 (1 open)$24.7Mn/a$10.7M2$83K est.2n/a3.2% (-0.9)13
22ColoradoYes8 (1 open)$24.2Mn/a$49.3M7$583K est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)4
23New JerseyYes12 (1 open)$19.1Mn/a$51.7M210$8.1M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
24ArizonaNo9 (0 open, plus 5 not yet confirmed)$17.4Mn/a$54.8M2$208K est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)8
25VirginiaYes11 (0 open)$13.9Mn/a$64.8M44$1.7M est.0n/a3.6% (-0.5)6
26MarylandNo8 (1 open)$13.1Mn/a$28.1M360$8.4M est.0n/a4.1% (0.0)1
27KansasYes4 (0 open)$12.8Mn/a$17.7M7$81K est.0n/a3.8% (-0.3)14
28WisconsinNo8 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$12.1Mn/a$29.4M45$9.9M est.0n/a3.2% (-0.9)2
29MassachusettsYes9 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$11.1Mn/a$29.0M46$4.6M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
30MissouriNo8 (1 open)$10.8Mn/a$19.8M19$2.3M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)14
31WyomingYes1 (1 open)$8.4Mn/a$4.1M0None0n/a3.0% (-1.1)2
32WashingtonNo10 (1 open)$8.2Mn/a$27.7M108$7.8M est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)11
33UtahNo4 (1 open)$5.4Mn/a$7.6M25$901K est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)2
34ArkansasYes4 (0 open)$5.0Mn/a$19.7M186$2.0M est.6n/a3.9% (-0.2)7
35MississippiYes4 (0 open)$4.5Mn/a$10.7M10$80K est.3n/a3.4% (-0.7)9
36NevadaNo4 (1 open)$4.2Mn/a$18.8M3$24K est.0n/a4.8% (+0.7)1
37OklahomaYes5 (1 open)$3.9Mn/a$19.4M892$45.5M est.693n/a4.3% (+0.2)11
38TennesseeYes9 (3 open)$3.6Mn/a$29.5M120$8.4M est.1n/a3.4% (-0.7)16
39ConnecticutNo5 (1 open)$2.6Mn/a$8.4M36$2.7M est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)3
40New MexicoYes3 (0 open)$2.4Mn/a$14.1M0None0n/a4.7% (+0.6)6
41South DakotaYes1 (1 open)$1.6Mn/a$5.7M1$3.0M est.1n/a2.0% (-2.1)12
42IndianaNo9 (0 open)$1.3Mn/a$20.5M22$207.1M est.0n/a3.3% (-0.8)3
43West VirginiaYes2 (0 open)$625Kn/a$8.0M40$50.4M est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)11
44OregonYes6 (0 open)$618Kn/a$15.3M1$8K est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)6
45District of ColumbiaNoDelegate$308Kn/a$833K1$33K est.0n/a5.7% (+1.6)0
46HawaiiNo2 (0 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$100Kn/a$3.4M5$40K est.1n/a2.7% (-1.4)6
47DelawareYes1 (0 open)$12Kn/a$9.4M1$175K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)2
48IdahoYes2 (0 open)$6Kn/a$6.1M0None0n/a3.6% (-0.5)4
49Rhode IslandYes2 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$9.7M38$932K est.0n/a3.7% (-0.4)4
49VermontNo1 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$1.0M0None0n/a2.6% (-1.5)9
51North DakotaNo1 (0 open)$0n/a$1.9M0None0n/a2.2% (-1.9)9
Puerto RicoNoNone in 2026No federal raceNo federal raceNo federal race0None0$3,164 (2020 Census)6.1% (+2.0)4
GuamNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$168K0None0$26,794 (2020 Census)n/a2
U.S. Virgin IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$713K0None0$116,856 (2020 Census)n/a1
American SamoaNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$39K0None0$8,658 (2020 Census)n/a1
Northern Mariana IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$81K0None0$1,964 (2020 Census)n/a3
Balance of power

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and the House 218 to 214.

Seats as held today. Not a forecast. 35 seats on the ballot. Control takes 51 seats, or 50 plus the Vice President's tie-break (R). Democrats and the independents who caucus with them would need a net gain of 4; Republicans can lose 3 and keep control. All 435 seats on the ballot. 218 seats make a majority. 69 seats have no incumbent on the ballot; in 22 more the incumbent is not yet confirmed.
Senate 100 seats, 35 up
House 435 seats, all up, 2 vacant
  • 53 R, 45 D, 2 ISenate seats held
  • 35Senate seats up: 22 R, 13 D
  • 82Open seats: 13 Senate, 69 House; plus 1 delegate race. 22 more not yet confirmed (0 Senate, 22 House)
  • FL, OHSpecial Senate elections
  • 4Appointed senators
  • 5 upDelegates; PR not up

How we count

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win. Every figure comes from a public record: FEC filings, congressional disclosures, USAspending.gov, BLS and FEMA. Trade volumes and net worth are estimates (est.) from the ranges filed.

Read the full method
Campaign money
Total receipts each 2026 House and Senate campaign reported to the FEC for the 2025-26 two-year period: the figure fec.gov shows when the 2026 two-year period is selected (a senator's candidate page opens on the six-year term, which also counts earlier years). Receipts include money transferred from a candidate's other committees, such as a joint fundraising committee or an earlier campaign. State and national totals subtract transfers between committees we already count, so no dollar is counted twice. A candidate with two FEC IDs is counted once. Totals run through each campaign's latest report; most run through June 30, 2026. Third-quarter reports (through September 30) are due October 15 and pre-general reports (through October 14) are due October 22.
Leading campaigns
The Democratic and the Republican campaign with the most receipts (the incumbent's, where the incumbent is on the ballot), plus any other campaign with at least 15% of the race leader's receipts. Where we cite an official list of the November ballot (most Senate races, and California's and Washington's House races, where two candidates of one party can meet), the candidates on it. Where a rival of the incumbent's own party raised more than the incumbent and no official source we cite settles the primary, both are listed. Other races can include candidates who lost a primary.
Outside money
Independent expenditures reported to the FEC for or against 2026 House and Senate candidates since January 1, 2025, from KeyVex's copy of FEC Schedule E: every line a filer reports, including purchases under $1,000 (amounts under $1,000 are shown as <$1K). A purchase reported on a 24- or 48-hour notice and again on a regular report is counted once, from the notice until KeyVex's copy has the regular report. Notices can be revised, and totals that include them can run ahead of FEC's own figures. Spenders that may be individuals are not named; their totals appear as one unnamed line and are left out of the weekly chart and the list of recent spending. Purchases for an earlier election, such as a 2025 special election, and purchases dated after Election Day are left out. Coordinated party spending is not included.
Trades
Periodic transaction reports filed with the Senate and the House (stocks, funds, bonds, notes and other securities), by trade date, for the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026. Dollar figures are midpoints of the ranges filed, so every volume is an estimate (est.). A Senate trade restated by an amendment, and a House trade on a re-filed report we have identified, is counted once; House amendments carry no marker, so a House trade filed again on a later report can be counted twice. Trades our identity check could not tie to the member are left out, and names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some totals are low.
Disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
Counted from the first report that listed the trade. The law sets 45 days after the transaction as the outer limit for reporting; this compares two dates printed on the filings and is not a finding that any law was broken. Dates more than two years apart are treated as a likely typo, listed as dates to verify and not counted.
Net worth (est.)
KeyVex's estimate from the member's latest annual financial disclosure: the midpoint of the listed asset ranges less the midpoint of the listed debts. The form does not list a member's home. Where the ranges cannot support a figure above zero we say why instead of showing a number.
Seats and status
Members from the congress-legislators roster, compiled from official sources, as of Sep 27, 2026. We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. A seat is listed as open when an official source we cite says the incumbent is not on the ballot, when the FEC lists the race as an open seat and the incumbent has no 2026 campaign of their own, when no incumbent filed for the district under its 2026 lines, or when the seat is vacant. Otherwise the incumbent is not confirmed, and we say what the FEC shows: a 2026 campaign on file, or none. Candidates on the November ballot are listed only with a link to an official election office's candidate list, ballot or results; "Nominee" marks a party's nominee, and candidates on Alaska's top-four ballot, California's and Washington's top-two ballots, or on the ballot by petition are marked "On the ballot".
Federal money
Fiscal year 2025 federal award obligations by place of performance, from USAspending.gov. The map and the table rank contracts, grants and other assistance per resident, using Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates (2020 Census counts for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands). Direct payments are shown apart in each state's report and left out of the ranking: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live. Loans are shown separately at face value.
Disasters
Major disaster declarations (FEMA declaration type DR) since 2021, counted once per disaster.
Unemployment
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, latest month (preliminary). National rate from the Current Population Survey.
District lines
Nine states use new district lines in 2026: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Missouri's new map is not in effect. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.
Louisiana
Each Louisiana House race is an open primary on Nov 3, with a runoff on Dec 12 if no one wins a majority: every candidate on that ballot is marked "On the ballot".

Sources

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026. Roster as of Sep 27, 2026. Government statistics fetched Oct 7, 2026; FEMA declarations through Oct 2, 2026. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation.

Notices

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.
  • State boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files via us-atlas (ISC license, copyright Michael Bostock).