KeyVex › 2026 Midterms › Tennessee

Follow the money into the midterms

26days to Election DayTuesday, Nov 3
Updated Oct 8, 10:20 PM ET
Data as of

Every federal race on the ballot, the money behind it, and what the incumbents do with their own money: campaign cash, outside spending, stock trades, estimated net worth and the federal dollars flowing into each state. Public records, refreshed twice a day.

  • Campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026
  • Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026
  • Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026
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Who holds the seats up in 2026

View as table
Senate raceSpecial election

Who holds the seat today. Not a forecast.

Source: Senate and House rosters, as of Sep 27, 2026

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

State report

Tennessee

On the ballot Nov 3U.S. SenateU.S. House (9 seats)Governor
  • New district lines for 2026
Campaign totals mostly through Jul 17, 2026, each campaign through its latest report; outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

At a glance

Outside money
$3.6M$2.9M for, $694K againstincludes $717K from 24/48-hour notices
#38 of 51Median state $13.1M
Campaign money (leading campaigns)
$29.5M2025-26 receipts of the leading campaigns in this state's 2026 racesAll filers: $36.0M
#20 of 51Median state $26.5M
Delegation trading (12 mo)
$8.4M est.120 trades by this state's members in the last 12 months; 1 disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
#9 of 51Median state $1.5M est.
Federal awards
$31.54BFY2025 contracts, grants and other assistance; per resident n/a (no population figure). Direct payments are shown apart, below

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

FEMA major disasters since 2021: 16Unemployment 3.4% (Aug 2026); US 4.1% (Aug 2026)

Source: FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026 and FEC campaign reports (2025-26 receipts), mostly through Jul 17, 2026; Senate and House periodic transaction reports disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; USAspending.gov (FY2025) and Census Bureau population estimates (Vintage 2025), as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Senate (Class II)

Bill Hagerty
2 trades in the last 12 months, $550K est.
Net worth $57.7M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Financial Services and General Government · Chairman, National Security and International Trade and Finance · Chairman, State Department and USAID Management, International Operations, and Bilateral International Development

On the November ballot

Bill Hagerty R Incumbent Nominee source (XLSX)
Raised $7.2MSpent $3.9MCash $5.2Mthrough Jul 17, 2026
includes $1.7M transferred from the candidate's other committees · from PACs 21%
Against $0Outside moneyFor $1.0M
includes $249K from 24/48-hour notices
Top spenders

For

  1. National Victory Action FundHybrid PAC · 10 purchases · latest Dec 4, 2025$275K filing
  2. Senate Conservatives FundHybrid PAC · 145 purchases · latest Oct 6, 2026$245K filing
  3. Winning Right PACSuper PAC · 5 purchases · latest May 14, 2026$220K filing
  4. American MissionSuper PAC · 2 purchases · latest Sep 24, 2026$212K filing
  5. Senate Conservatives ActionSuper PAC · 10 purchases · latest Aug 24, 2026$69K filing
David Sutman Jr I On the ballot source (XLSX)
Raised $9KSpent $9KCash <$1Kthrough Jun 30, 2026
self-funded 100%
Marquita Bradshaw D Nominee source (XLSX)
Raised $2KSpent $1KCash $1Kthrough Jul 17, 2026
Robert Jones I On the ballot source (XLSX)
Raised $0Spent $2KCash <$1Kthrough Jun 30, 2026
Yoshi D. Matthews I On the ballot source (XLSX)
Raised $0Spent $3KCash -$3Kthrough Jun 30, 2026
Andrew Gerena I On the ballot source (XLSX)
No FEC filing on file (a candidate who raises or spends $5,000 or less need not register)
Catherine "Barcy" Barcel Whitson I On the ballot source (XLSX)
Registered; no financial report on file yet
James William Macon III I On the ballot source (XLSX)
No FEC filing on file (a candidate who raises or spends $5,000 or less need not register)
Jeremy Dean Hearn I On the ballot source (XLSX)
No FEC filing on file (a candidate who raises or spends $5,000 or less need not register)
Tharon Chandler I On the ballot source (XLSX)
Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (7), $15K raised

Source: FEC campaign reports, 2025-26 receipts (mostly through Jun 30, 2026, each campaign through its latest report); FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026; Senate disclosures for the incumbent's trades and net worth, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

House races

9 races, 3 open. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.

Each race shows the candidates on its official November list. Open a row for its campaigns: raised spent cash on hand, on one scale per race, through Jul 17, 2026 unless another date is shown.

Districts: outside moneyNew lines
None reportedUnder $250K$250K to $1M$1M to $5M$5M to $15M$15M or moreBorder: incumbent's party; dashed: openIncumbent traded (12 mo)
District 1Diana HarshbargerDiana Harshbarger RNomineeDiana Harshbarger R $1.3M / $2.0MKristi Burke D $102K / $14KBilly Cody I n/a / n/aChris Campbell I n/a / n/a$14K47$3.6M est.0

Diana Harshbarger: Nominee source (XLSX). 47 trades in the last 12 months, $3.6M est. Trades and net worth

  • Diana Harshbarger R Incumbent$1.3M raised · $740K spent · $2.0M cashfrom PACs 54% · debts $1.5M
    Outside money: against $0, for $14K. Top for: Freedom Caucus Fund $14K.
  • Kristi Burke D$102K raised · $88K spent · $14K cash
  • Billy Cody INo FEC filing on file
  • Chris Campbell I No FEC filing on file
  • Joshua Ray Ashburn I No FEC filing on file
  • Richard Baker I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Tyler Brice Mitchell McClain I No FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (1), $0 raised
District 2Tim BurchettTim Burchett RNomineeTim Burchett R $2.4M / $967KMichaela Barnett D $398K / $56KAdam Heimerman I n/a / n/aBruce Fine I n/a / n/a<$1K00

Tim Burchett: Nominee source (XLSX). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • Tim Burchett R Incumbent$2.4M raised · $2.2M spent · $967K cashfrom PACs 6% · debts $24K
  • Michaela Barnett D$398K raised · $341K spent · $56K cashdebts $6K
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Sierra Club Independent Action <$1K.
  • Adam Heimerman IRegistered; no financial report on file yet
  • Bruce Fine I No FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (2), $0 raised
District 3Charles J. "Chuck" FleischmannCharles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann RNomineeCharles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann R $2.3M / $4.8MAnna Golladay D $56K / $34KDean Arnold I n/a / n/aDonnie Lynn Ownby I n/a / n/aNone37$370K est.0

Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann: Nominee source (XLSX). 37 trades in the last 12 months, $370K est. Trades and net worth

  • Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann R Incumbent$2.3M raised · $752K spent · $4.8M cash
  • Anna Golladay D$56K raised · $28K spent · $34K cash
  • Dean Arnold INo FEC filing on file
  • Donnie Lynn Ownby I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Edward John Roland I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Jean Howard-Hill I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Rodney Joe King I No FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (2), <$1K raised
District 4Scott DesJarlaisScott DesJarlais RNomineeScott DesJarlais R $537K / $495KVictoria Broderick D $84K / $9KJacob Kristopher Anders I $27K / $27KClay Faircloth I n/a / n/a<$1K2$41K est.0

Scott DesJarlais: Nominee source (XLSX). 2 trades in the last 12 months, $41K est. Trades and net worth

  • Scott DesJarlais R Incumbent$537K raised · $408K spent · $495K cashfrom PACs 57%
    Outside money: against $0, for <$1K. Top for: Freedom Caucus Fund <$1K.
  • Victoria Broderick D$84K raised · $83K spent · $9K cashthrough Sep 30, 2026
  • Jacob Kristopher Anders I$27K raised · <$1K spent · $27K cashthrough Jun 30, 2026
  • Clay Faircloth I Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (8), $785K raised
District 5Open seat outgoing:Andrew OglesAndrew Ogles RNot on the November ballotChaz Molder D $2.6M / $1.5MCharlie Hatcher R $720K / $105KJames Andrew Johnson I n/a / n/aMicheal O'Leary I n/a / n/a$335K00

Andrew Ogles: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source (XLSX))
  • Chaz Molder D$2.6M raised · $1.1M spent · $1.5M cashfrom PACs 8% · debts $33K
    Outside money: against $0, for $34K. Top for: The Progress Fund $34K.
  • Charlie Hatcher R$720K raised · $615K spent · $105K cash
    Outside money: against $273K, for $28K, includes $28K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Civic Renewal Fund Inc. $28K. Top against: Freedom Caucus Fund $273K.
  • James Andrew Johnson IRegistered; no financial report on file yet
  • Micheal O'Leary I Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (6), $657K raised; $521K in outside money for or against them
District 6Open seat outgoing:John W. RoseJohn W. Rose RNot on the November ballotJohnny Garrett R $2.4M / $288KMike Croley D $35K / $2KAngus Purdy I n/a / n/aChristopher Brian Monday I n/a / n/a$854K00

John W. Rose: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source (XLSX))
  • Johnny Garrett R$2.4M raised · $2.1M spent · $288K cashself-funded 51% · from PACs 4% · debts $1.2M
    Outside money: against $253K, for $602K, includes $138K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Thank You for Your Attention to This Matter PAC $289K, American Mission $288K. Top against: Conservative Future Fund $253K.
  • Mike Croley D$35K raised · $33K spent · $2K cash
  • Angus Purdy INo FEC filing on file
  • Christopher Brian Monday I Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (12), $1.8M raised; $255K in outside money for or against them
District 7Matt Van EppsMatt Van Epps RNomineeMatt Van Epps R $2.3M / $208KDarden Hunter Copeland D $869K / $79KAndrew Koontz I $5K / $5KLowell Reynolds I n/a / n/aNone13$129K est.0

Matt Van Epps: Nominee source (XLSX). 13 trades in the last 12 months, $129K est. Trades and net worth

  • Matt Van Epps R Incumbent$2.3M raised · $2.1M spent · $208K cashfrom PACs 25% · debts $60K
  • Darden Hunter Copeland D$869K raised · $790K spent · $79K cashself-funded 26% · debts $165K
  • Andrew Koontz I$5K raised · <$1K spent · $5K cashthrough Jun 30, 2026 · self-funded 100% · debts $5K
  • Lowell Reynolds I Registered; no financial report on file yet
Also filed with the FEC (10), $1.0M raised; $24K in outside money for or against them
District 8David KustoffDavid Kustoff RNomineeDavid Kustoff R $2.2M / $3.0MHeidi Kuhn D $40K / $13KHorace Taylor I $2K / <$1KAdam D Austill I n/a / n/aNone00

David Kustoff: Nominee source (XLSX). No trades in the last 12 months. Trades and net worth

  • David Kustoff R Incumbent$2.2M raised · $1.3M spent · $3.0M cashfrom PACs 46% · debts $147K
  • Heidi Kuhn D$40K raised · $26K spent · $13K cashfrom PACs 4%
  • Horace Taylor I$2K raised · $1K spent · <$1K cashthrough Jun 30, 2026 · self-funded 46%
  • Adam D Austill I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Antonio Futch I Registered; no financial report on file yet
  • Henry J. Ward III I No FEC filing on file
  • Pamela "P." Jeanine Moses I No FEC filing on file
  • Wendell "Wells" Blankenship I No FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (4), $226K raised
District 9Open seat outgoing:Steve CohenSteve Cohen DNot on the November ballotJustin J. Pearson D $2.3M / $845KBrent Taylor R $1.5M / $417KDennis Jeffrey Clark I n/a / n/aMichelle Davis Head I n/a / n/a$594K19$3.7M est.1

Steve Cohen: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX). 19 trades in the last 12 months, $3.7M est., 1 disclosed more than 45 days after the trade. Trades and net worth

Open seat: the incumbent is not on the ballot (official source (XLSX))
  • Justin J. Pearson D$2.3M raised · $1.5M spent · $845K cashfrom PACs 1%
    Outside money: against $0, for $91K, includes $54K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition Votes Action PAC $60K, Indivisible Action $26K.
  • Brent Taylor R$1.5M raised · $1.1M spent · $417K cashself-funded 65% · from PACs 5% · debts $1.0M
    Outside money: against $0, for $504K, includes $31K from 24/48-hour notices. Top for: Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. $468K, Civic Renewal Fund Inc. $27K.
  • Dennis Jeffrey Clark IRegistered; no financial report on file yet
  • Michelle Davis Head I No FEC filing on file
Also filed with the FEC (8), $2.0M raised; $20K in outside money for or against them

Source: FEC campaign reports, 2025-26 receipts (mostly through Jul 17, 2026, each campaign through its latest report); FEC Schedule E through Oct 8, 2026; House disclosures for incumbents' trades, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

The delegation's own money

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every current member from Tennessee, including senators not up this year. Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate from the ranges filed.

Estimated volume by member (12 mo)

Steve Cohen D$3.7M est.Diana Harshbarger R$3.6M est.Bill Hagerty R$550K est.Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann R$370K est.Matt Van Epps R$129K est.Scott DesJarlais R$41K est.

No trades in the last 12 months: Andrew Ogles, David Kustoff, John W. Rose, Marsha Blackburn, Tim Burchett

Purchases: 80Sales: 40120trades
  • Purchases80
  • Sales40
$8.4M est. across 120 trades; 1 disclosed more than 45 days after the trade

Most traded by this delegation

GLDM3GS2HYBB2MDYG2MDYV2REGL2SPDW2SPMB2SPYG2SPYV2
Steve Cohen
Steve Cohen DTennessee · District 92026: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX)
19trades (12 mo)$3.7M est.volume1late (over 45 days)Aug 21, 2026last traded
11 purchases 8 sales
Net worth $10.5M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
1 trade disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
  • SFGYY $1,001 - $15,000Traded Dec 26, 2025, first disclosed May 15, 2026, 140 days · filing
Diana Harshbarger
Diana Harshbarger RTennessee · District 12026: Nominee source (XLSX)
47trades (12 mo)$3.6M est.volume0late (over 45 days)May 7, 2026last traded
46 purchases 1 sale
Net worth (est.): no figure, newest report not readable yet. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Vice Chair, Health
Bill Hagerty
Bill Hagerty RTennessee2026: Nominee source (XLSX)
2trades (12 mo)$550K est.volume0late (over 45 days)Jan 29, 2026last traded
2 purchases 0 sales
Net worth $57.7M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Financial Services and General Government · Chairman, National Security and International Trade and Finance · Chairman, State Department and USAID Management, International Operations, and Bilateral International Development
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann RTennessee · District 32026: Nominee source (XLSX)
37trades (12 mo)$370K est.volume0late (over 45 days)Apr 28, 2026last traded
21 purchases 16 sales
GLDM3HYBB2MDYG2
Net worth (est.): no figure, newest report not readable yet. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Chair, Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies
Matt Van Epps
Matt Van Epps RTennessee · District 72026: Nominee source (XLSX)
13trades (12 mo)$129K est.volume0late (over 45 days)Jun 16, 2026last traded
0 purchases 13 sales
Net worth $871K (est.), from the report filed Jun 15, 2026 · filing
Scott DesJarlais
Scott DesJarlais RTennessee · District 42026: Nominee source (XLSX)
2trades (12 mo)$41K est.volume0late (over 45 days)Oct 28, 2025last traded
0 purchases 2 sales
Net worth $577K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Strategic Forces
Andrew Ogles
Andrew Ogles RTennessee · District 52026: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $123K (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection
John W. Rose
John W. Rose RTennessee · District 62026: Not on the November ballot source (XLSX)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $54.5M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Vice Chair, Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development
Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn RTennesseeSeat not up in 2026

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth $1.3M (est.), from the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy · Chairman, Privacy, Technology, and the Law
Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett RTennessee · District 22026: Nominee source (XLSX)

No trades in the last 12 months

Net worth (est.): no figure, listed debts exceed listed assets. Latest: the 2025 annual report · filing
Chairman, Delivering on Government Efficiency
  • Names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some members may be under-counted.

Source: Senate eFD and House Clerk periodic transaction reports, trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; annual financial disclosures for net worth, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

Federal money, disasters, jobs

Federal money, fiscal year 2025

Award obligations by place of performance; per resident uses Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates; direct payments apart
$31.54B in contracts, grants and other assistance
Contracts $10.95BGrants $20.42BOther assistance $164.7M

Direct payments: $89.63B. Not in the comparison above: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live.

Loans (face value): $5.77B

FEMA major disasters since 2021

One dot per disaster, by declaration date
20222023202420252026
Hurricane or tropical storm 1Flood 1Severe Storm 14

Unemployment rate

Seasonally adjusted; the dashed line is the US
3.4% in Aug 2026 (preliminary); down 0.1 points from a year earlier. US 4.1% in Aug 2026. The national rate for Sep 2026 is 4.2%.
3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
Jan 2025Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026
TennesseeUS

Source: USAspending.gov, FY2025 (fetched Oct 7, 2026); Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; OpenFEMA, through Oct 2, 2026; BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, through Aug 2026; US rate from the Current Population Survey, through Sep 2026, as of Oct 8, 2026. How we count

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Notes on Tennessee

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win.

FEC bulk files fetched Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; outside spending since Jan 1, 2025, through Oct 8, 2026.

Trades dated Oct 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2026, disclosed through Oct 7, 2026.

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026; roster as of Sep 27, 2026.

How we count, sources and notices

Where the money is going

Outside groups have reported $1.92B for or against 2026 candidates (including $1.13B counted from 24/48-hour notices); named spenders' purchases dated in the 4 weeks to Oct 4 come to $848.8M.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

Outside money by week

Named purchases by week, for and against. Spenders that are not named are in the total above but not in this chart.
For a candidateAgainst a candidateDashed line: the week so far. Dotted verticals: reports due Oct 15 and Oct 22, Election Day Nov 3. Shaded: the days left
Traders on the ballot

91 incumbents on the ballot reported trades in the last 12 months; the largest by estimated volume, Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R, IN-6), reported 17 trades worth about $207.0M (est.), 50% of the $413.0M (est.) all of them reported.

We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. Trades in the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026; every volume is an estimate (est.).
Trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; campaign receipts mostly through Jun 30, 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

All races and states

Every race, every state

Races

Every state, ranked

The 50 states and DC, sorted by any column, with the territories at the foot (not ranked). The same figures the map shows. Pick a row to open that state. Unemployment: the state's rate, and its difference from the US rate for the same month.
Outside spending through Oct 8, 2026; campaign totals mostly through Jun 30, 2026; trades disclosed through Oct 7, 2026; federal awards FY2025; unemployment Aug 2026.

House reports filed as scanned images since Jun 4, 2026 are not yet included, so some House members' trade counts are low.

Every state, ranked by outside money; select a column header to sort
#
1TexasYes38 (13 open)$350.0Mn/a$168.8M949$73.1M est.36n/a4.4% (+0.3)7
2MichiganYes13 (3 open)$218.9Mn/a$70.3M506$5.3M est.3n/a5.0% (+0.9)4
3OhioSpecial15 (0 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$200.0Mn/a$91.1M237$2.5M est.11n/a3.3% (-0.8)2
4IowaYes4 (2 open)$107.9Mn/a$45.5M0None0n/a3.2% (-0.9)7
5North CarolinaYes14 (1 open)$94.0Mn/a$80.4M77$3.1M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)5
6MaineYes2 (1 open)$82.2Mn/a$20.4M17$301K est.1n/a3.2% (-0.9)8
7KentuckyYes6 (2 open)$75.8Mn/a$27.2M7$81K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)15
8New YorkNo26 (5 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$74.8Mn/a$145.2M20$797K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)9
9CaliforniaNo52 (4 open)$71.1Mn/a$156.7M4,701$169.0M est.72n/a5.1% (+1.0)16
10AlaskaYes1 (0 open)$65.3Mn/a$34.5M2$550K est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)18
11IllinoisYes17 (2 open, plus 7 not yet confirmed)$57.5Mn/a$62.6M52$1.5M est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)4
12FloridaSpecial28 (7 open)$53.6Mn/a$90.5M348$9.8M est.3n/a4.5% (+0.4)10
13New HampshireYes2 (1 open)$50.7Mn/a$35.9M0None0n/a2.8% (-1.3)8
14GeorgiaYes14 (4 open)$43.4Mn/a$113.5M127$5.5M est.8n/a3.2% (-0.9)6
15South CarolinaYes7 (2 open)$28.5Mn/a$21.5M76$3.2M est.1n/a4.1% (0.0)5
16AlabamaYes7 (1 open)$28.3Mn/a$16.3M25$561K est.6n/a3.4% (-0.7)5
17MinnesotaYes8 (1 open)$28.2Mn/a$40.7M57$3.3M est.4n/a4.4% (+0.3)6
18PennsylvaniaNo17 (0 open, plus 3 not yet confirmed)$27.2Mn/a$67.1M338$66.5M est.1n/a3.7% (-0.4)2
19LouisianaYes6 (2 open)$27.2Mn/a$47.2M139$4.9M est.17n/a4.2% (+0.1)7
20NebraskaYes3 (1 open)$25.7Mn/a$26.5M1$8K est.0n/a2.9% (-1.2)12
21MontanaYes2 (1 open)$24.7Mn/a$10.7M2$83K est.2n/a3.2% (-0.9)13
22ColoradoYes8 (1 open)$24.2Mn/a$49.3M7$583K est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)4
23New JerseyYes12 (1 open)$19.1Mn/a$51.7M210$8.1M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
24ArizonaNo9 (0 open, plus 5 not yet confirmed)$17.4Mn/a$54.8M2$208K est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)8
25VirginiaYes11 (0 open)$13.9Mn/a$64.8M44$1.7M est.0n/a3.6% (-0.5)6
26MarylandNo8 (1 open)$13.1Mn/a$28.1M360$8.4M est.0n/a4.1% (0.0)1
27KansasYes4 (0 open)$12.8Mn/a$17.7M7$81K est.0n/a3.8% (-0.3)14
28WisconsinNo8 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$12.1Mn/a$29.4M45$9.9M est.0n/a3.2% (-0.9)2
29MassachusettsYes9 (1 open, plus 1 not yet confirmed)$11.1Mn/a$29.0M46$4.6M est.0n/a4.3% (+0.2)3
30MissouriNo8 (1 open)$10.8Mn/a$19.8M19$2.3M est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)14
31WyomingYes1 (1 open)$8.4Mn/a$4.1M0None0n/a3.0% (-1.1)2
32WashingtonNo10 (1 open)$8.2Mn/a$27.7M108$7.8M est.0n/a4.9% (+0.8)11
33UtahNo4 (1 open)$5.4Mn/a$7.6M25$901K est.0n/a3.5% (-0.6)2
34ArkansasYes4 (0 open)$5.0Mn/a$19.7M186$2.0M est.6n/a3.9% (-0.2)7
35MississippiYes4 (0 open)$4.5Mn/a$10.7M10$80K est.3n/a3.4% (-0.7)9
36NevadaNo4 (1 open)$4.2Mn/a$18.8M3$24K est.0n/a4.8% (+0.7)1
37OklahomaYes5 (1 open)$3.9Mn/a$19.4M892$45.5M est.693n/a4.3% (+0.2)11
38TennesseeYes9 (3 open)$3.6Mn/a$29.5M120$8.4M est.1n/a3.4% (-0.7)16
39ConnecticutNo5 (1 open)$2.6Mn/a$8.4M36$2.7M est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)3
40New MexicoYes3 (0 open)$2.4Mn/a$14.1M0None0n/a4.7% (+0.6)6
41South DakotaYes1 (1 open)$1.6Mn/a$5.7M1$3.0M est.1n/a2.0% (-2.1)12
42IndianaNo9 (0 open)$1.3Mn/a$20.5M22$207.1M est.0n/a3.3% (-0.8)3
43West VirginiaYes2 (0 open)$625Kn/a$8.0M40$50.4M est.0n/a4.0% (-0.1)11
44OregonYes6 (0 open)$618Kn/a$15.3M1$8K est.0n/a5.1% (+1.0)6
45District of ColumbiaNoDelegate$308Kn/a$833K1$33K est.0n/a5.7% (+1.6)0
46HawaiiNo2 (0 open, plus 2 not yet confirmed)$100Kn/a$3.4M5$40K est.1n/a2.7% (-1.4)6
47DelawareYes1 (0 open)$12Kn/a$9.4M1$175K est.0n/a4.7% (+0.6)2
48IdahoYes2 (0 open)$6Kn/a$6.1M0None0n/a3.6% (-0.5)4
49Rhode IslandYes2 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$9.7M38$932K est.0n/a3.7% (-0.4)4
49VermontNo1 (0 open)<$1Kn/a$1.0M0None0n/a2.6% (-1.5)9
51North DakotaNo1 (0 open)$0n/a$1.9M0None0n/a2.2% (-1.9)9
Puerto RicoNoNone in 2026No federal raceNo federal raceNo federal race0None0$3,164 (2020 Census)6.1% (+2.0)4
GuamNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$168K0None0$26,794 (2020 Census)n/a2
U.S. Virgin IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$713K0None0$116,856 (2020 Census)n/a1
American SamoaNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$39K0None0$8,658 (2020 Census)n/a1
Northern Mariana IslandsNoDelegate$0$0.00 (2020 Census)$81K0None0$1,964 (2020 Census)n/a3
Balance of power

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and the House 218 to 214.

Seats as held today. Not a forecast. 35 seats on the ballot. Control takes 51 seats, or 50 plus the Vice President's tie-break (R). Democrats and the independents who caucus with them would need a net gain of 4; Republicans can lose 3 and keep control. All 435 seats on the ballot. 218 seats make a majority. 69 seats have no incumbent on the ballot; in 22 more the incumbent is not yet confirmed.
Senate 100 seats, 35 up
House 435 seats, all up, 2 vacant
  • 53 R, 45 D, 2 ISenate seats held
  • 35Senate seats up: 22 R, 13 D
  • 82Open seats: 13 Senate, 69 House; plus 1 delegate race. 22 more not yet confirmed (0 Senate, 22 House)
  • FL, OHSpecial Senate elections
  • 4Appointed senators
  • 5 upDelegates; PR not up

How we count

KeyVex does not rate races, publish odds or call results. Colors show money, trades or who holds a seat today, never who will win. Every figure comes from a public record: FEC filings, congressional disclosures, USAspending.gov, BLS and FEMA. Trade volumes and net worth are estimates (est.) from the ranges filed.

Read the full method
Campaign money
Total receipts each 2026 House and Senate campaign reported to the FEC for the 2025-26 two-year period: the figure fec.gov shows when the 2026 two-year period is selected (a senator's candidate page opens on the six-year term, which also counts earlier years). Receipts include money transferred from a candidate's other committees, such as a joint fundraising committee or an earlier campaign. State and national totals subtract transfers between committees we already count, so no dollar is counted twice. A candidate with two FEC IDs is counted once. Totals run through each campaign's latest report; most run through June 30, 2026. Third-quarter reports (through September 30) are due October 15 and pre-general reports (through October 14) are due October 22.
Leading campaigns
The Democratic and the Republican campaign with the most receipts (the incumbent's, where the incumbent is on the ballot), plus any other campaign with at least 15% of the race leader's receipts. Where we cite an official list of the November ballot (most Senate races, and California's and Washington's House races, where two candidates of one party can meet), the candidates on it. Where a rival of the incumbent's own party raised more than the incumbent and no official source we cite settles the primary, both are listed. Other races can include candidates who lost a primary.
Outside money
Independent expenditures reported to the FEC for or against 2026 House and Senate candidates since January 1, 2025, from KeyVex's copy of FEC Schedule E: every line a filer reports, including purchases under $1,000 (amounts under $1,000 are shown as <$1K). A purchase reported on a 24- or 48-hour notice and again on a regular report is counted once, from the notice until KeyVex's copy has the regular report. Notices can be revised, and totals that include them can run ahead of FEC's own figures. Spenders that may be individuals are not named; their totals appear as one unnamed line and are left out of the weekly chart and the list of recent spending. Purchases for an earlier election, such as a 2025 special election, and purchases dated after Election Day are left out. Coordinated party spending is not included.
Trades
Periodic transaction reports filed with the Senate and the House (stocks, funds, bonds, notes and other securities), by trade date, for the 12 months to Oct 8, 2026. Dollar figures are midpoints of the ranges filed, so every volume is an estimate (est.). A Senate trade restated by an amendment, and a House trade on a re-filed report we have identified, is counted once; House amendments carry no marker, so a House trade filed again on a later report can be counted twice. Trades our identity check could not tie to the member are left out, and names with apostrophes are not yet matched, so some totals are low.
Disclosed more than 45 days after the trade
Counted from the first report that listed the trade. The law sets 45 days after the transaction as the outer limit for reporting; this compares two dates printed on the filings and is not a finding that any law was broken. Dates more than two years apart are treated as a likely typo, listed as dates to verify and not counted.
Net worth (est.)
KeyVex's estimate from the member's latest annual financial disclosure: the midpoint of the listed asset ranges less the midpoint of the listed debts. The form does not list a member's home. Where the ranges cannot support a figure above zero we say why instead of showing a number.
Seats and status
Members from the congress-legislators roster, compiled from official sources, as of Sep 27, 2026. We count an incumbent as on the November ballot only when an official list or result we cite names them, for their seat or as a Senate nominee. Until a list we have read names them or shows them out, an incumbent is not confirmed: counted neither as on the ballot nor as an open seat, even with a 2026 campaign on file. A seat is listed as open when an official source we cite says the incumbent is not on the ballot, when the FEC lists the race as an open seat and the incumbent has no 2026 campaign of their own, when no incumbent filed for the district under its 2026 lines, or when the seat is vacant. Otherwise the incumbent is not confirmed, and we say what the FEC shows: a 2026 campaign on file, or none. Candidates on the November ballot are listed only with a link to an official election office's candidate list, ballot or results; "Nominee" marks a party's nominee, and candidates on Alaska's top-four ballot, California's and Washington's top-two ballots, or on the ballot by petition are marked "On the ballot".
Federal money
Fiscal year 2025 federal award obligations by place of performance, from USAspending.gov. The map and the table rank contracts, grants and other assistance per resident, using Census Bureau July 2025 population estimates (2020 Census counts for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands). Direct payments are shown apart in each state's report and left out of the ranking: USAspending can record some of them, including Medicare payments, where the contractor or insurer that pays them is located rather than where the people paid live. Loans are shown separately at face value.
Disasters
Major disaster declarations (FEMA declaration type DR) since 2021, counted once per disaster.
Unemployment
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, seasonally adjusted, latest month (preliminary). National rate from the Current Population Survey.
District lines
Nine states use new district lines in 2026: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Missouri's new map is not in effect. Races follow the district each candidate filed for with the FEC.
Louisiana
Each Louisiana House race is an open primary on Nov 3, with a runoff on Dec 12 if no one wins a majority: every candidate on that ballot is marked "On the ballot".

Sources

Ballot facts from the official candidate lists, the oldest read Oct 7, 2026. Roster as of Sep 27, 2026. Government statistics fetched Oct 7, 2026; FEMA declarations through Oct 2, 2026. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation.

Notices

  • This product uses Census Bureau data but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau.
  • This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use
  • BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
  • This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
  • Federal spending: USAspending.gov, U.S. Department of the Treasury.
  • State boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files via us-atlas (ISC license, copyright Michael Bostock).