Lilly says its drug more than doubled Ozempic's weight loss. More quit over side effects
Lilly said its experimental retatrutide beat Novo Nordisk's Ozempic on blood sugar and weight in the first late-stage trial to pit it against another drug of its kind, though more patients quit it over side effects. It is approved nowhere.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 6 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 6 public records
LLY$1281.91▲ 0.2%Close, Oct. 27. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Ozempic is Novo Nordisk's diabetes shot, and 2 mg is its highest approved dose, Lilly said. Lilly tested its experimental retatrutide against it for 80 weeks in 1,298 adults with type 2 diabetes.
- Retatrutide's top dose took off 20.9% of body weight on average, against 9.4% on Ozempic. Both retatrutide doses also lowered blood sugar more, Lilly said, though the 9 mg dose's edge was only "nominal."
- The catch: 7.9% on the top dose quit over side effects, against 2.7% on Ozempic. Patients knew which drug they took, and the full results are unpublished.
- Leerink analyst David Risinger wrote that the results "strengthen the case for retatrutide's long-term differentiation," BioPharma Dive reported.
- No regulator has approved retatrutide. Lilly reports quarterly results on Oct. 29 and plans to ask the FDA for approval in the first quarter of 2027.
The trial: Eli Lilly said on Oct. 28 that retatrutide, its experimental weekly shot, took off more than twice as much weight as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in a head-to-head trial.Lilly After 80 weeks, people on the 12 mg dose had lost 20.9% of their body weight on average, about 47 pounds. People on Ozempic's 2 mg dose, its highest approved, lost 9.4%, about 21 pounds.Lilly
The first: It was the first Phase 3 trial, the last stage of testing before approval is sought, to compare retatrutide with another drug of its kind, Lilly said.Lilly Lilly has now reported results from six Phase 3 trials of the drug.Lilly
Why it matters: Lilly's earlier retatrutide results this year came from trials against a placebo. This one put it against Ozempic at its highest approved dose, so its side effects show up against a rival drug for the first time: 7.9% quit the top dose over them, against 2.7% on Ozempic.LillyLillyLillyLilly
View the data
| Drug and dose | Average weight lost at 80 weeks | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Retatrutide 12 mg (Lilly, investigational) | 20.9% | 47.4 lbs on average |
| Retatrutide 9 mg (Lilly, investigational) | 19.5% | 44.3 lbs on average |
| Ozempic 2 mg (Novo Nordisk, approved) | 9.4% | 20.9 lbs on average |
Source: Lilly news release, Oct. 28, 2026. Topline results; the full data have not been published.Lilly
Lilly's stock and the year's retatrutide readoutsDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 27, 2026 ▲ 18.7%Show chartHide chart
- 1March 19, 2026 First Phase 3 diabetes results for retatrutide. TRANSCEND-T2D-1, released at 6:45 a.m. ET. Lilly closed at $917.50, Novo at $37.08.
- 2May 21, 2026 TRIUMPH-1, the main obesity trial. Released at 6:45 a.m. ET. Lilly closed at $1,041.65, Novo at $44.39.
- 3July 23, 2026 TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3. Released at 6:45 a.m. ET; Lilly said it plans to file with the FDA in the first quarter of 2027. Lilly closed at $1,185.87, Novo at $48.18.
- 4Oct. 27, 2026 The day before the head-to-head results. Lilly closed at $1,281.91, Novo at $38.67. The Ozempic trial results came out at 6:45 a.m. ET on Oct. 28.
View the data (206 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | $1281.91 | +0.2% |
| 2026-10-26 | $1279.14 | +0.4% |
| 2026-10-23 | $1273.46 | −2.5% |
| 2026-10-22 | $1306.69 | +2.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | $1270.75 | −1.0% |
| 2026-10-20 | $1283.66 | +3.5% |
| 2026-10-19 | $1240.34 | −1.3% |
| 2026-10-16 | $1257.03 | +0.4% |
| 2026-10-15 | $1251.61 | +3.5% |
| 2026-10-14 | $1208.74 | +3.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | $1166.51 | −1.4% |
| 2026-10-12 | $1182.62 | +0.3% |
| 2026-10-09 | $1179.27 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-08 | $1169.60 | −1.6% |
| 2026-10-07 | $1188.72 | +2.7% |
| 2026-10-06 | $1157.49 | +1.3% |
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| 2026-09-30 | $1157.08 | −2.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | $1184.63 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-28 | $1184.78 | +0.1% |
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| 2026-09-23 | $1150.99 | −1.6% |
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| 2026-03-20 | $906.70 | −1.2% |
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| 2026-02-19 | $1023.22 | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-18 | $1020.56 | −1.5% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1036.05 | −0.4% |
| 2026-02-13 | $1040.00 | +0.2% |
| 2026-02-12 | $1038.27 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-11 | $1015.21 | −1.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | $1025.00 | −1.9% |
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| 2026-02-03 | $1003.46 | −3.9% |
| 2026-02-02 | $1044.13 | +0.7% |
| 2026-01-30 | $1037.15 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $1024.14 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1023.80 | −1.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | $1039.51 | −2.2% |
| 2026-01-26 | $1062.75 | −0.1% |
| 2026-01-23 | $1064.29 | −2.1% |
| 2026-01-22 | $1087.38 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01-21 | $1078.52 | +3.6% |
| 2026-01-20 | $1041.29 | +0.3% |
| 2026-01-16 | $1038.40 | +0.5% |
| 2026-01-15 | $1032.97 | −3.8% |
| 2026-01-14 | $1073.29 | −0.4% |
| 2026-01-13 | $1077.19 | −0.4% |
| 2026-01-12 | $1081.00 | +1.6% |
| 2026-01-09 | $1063.56 | −2.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | $1085.19 | −2.1% |
| 2026-01-07 | $1108.09 | +4.1% |
| 2026-01-06 | $1064.04 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-05 | $1041.51 | −3.6% |
| 2026-01-02 | $1080.36 |
Lilly closed at $1,281.91 on Oct. 27, up about 19% from its first close of 2026, $1,080.36. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.Chart data
Is it really twice as good
Retatrutide works on three hormone receptors, GIP, GLP-1 and glucagon, in one weekly shot. Ozempic works on one, GLP-1.LillyBioPharma Dive The trial's main test was blood sugar. On A1C, a measure of average blood sugar, both retatrutide doses cut 2.2 points from an average of 8.3%. Ozempic cut 1.8.Lilly
The 9 mg dose's blood-sugar edge was "nominal," Lilly said, meaning that comparison was outside the set of tests the trial was designed to guard against chance findings.LillyBioPharma Dive The 9 mg dose took off 19.5% of body weight.Lilly
"Those benefits appear to come with a trade-off," BioPharma Dive wrote.BioPharma Dive More people on retatrutide stopped taking it because of side effects: 7.9% on the 12 mg dose and 4.8% on 9 mg, against 2.7% on Ozempic.LillyBioPharma Dive The most common were stomach problems, as with Ozempic. Dysesthesia, an unusual skin sensation, hit 6.5% on the top dose against 2.7% on Ozempic.Lilly
Two details in Lilly's release qualify the figures. The trial was open-label, so patients knew which drug they took. And the figures assume everyone stayed on their drug for the full 80 weeks, which not everyone did.LillyClinicalTrials.gov The full results have not been published, and no regulator has approved retatrutide.Lilly
The two stocks
Novo's stock closed at $146.91 on June 25, 2024, its highest since a 2023 split, and at $38.67 on Oct. 27, 2026, down about 74%. Lilly's rose about 42% over the same span. The prices don't show what caused these moves.Prices Lilly has released topline, or first, Phase 3 results for retatrutide four times this year, on March 19, May 21, July 23 and Oct. 28, each before the market opened.LillyLillyLillyLilly On the first three of those days, Novo's stock closed lower twice, by 1.0% and 1.5%, and was flat on the other. Lilly's was flat on March 19 and rose about 2% on each of the other two.Prices
On Oct. 28, at 2:10 p.m. Eastern, before the close, Novo's shares traded about 1.5% below their previous close and Lilly's about 0.5% above, in quotes from the IEX exchange via Tiingo.Quotes Both stocks also trade on everything else in their businesses.
Lilly vs. Novo since Novo's June 2024 high, % changeShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Close | Eli Lilly | Novo Nordisk |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 27, 2026 | +42% | -74% |
| Sep 2026 | +28% | -74% |
| Aug 2026 | +28% | -69% |
| Jul 2026 | +27% | -68% |
| Jun 2026 | +33% | -67% |
| May 2026 | +22% | -69% |
| Apr 2026 | +3% | -71% |
| Mar 2026 | +2% | -75% |
| Feb 2026 | +16% | -75% |
| Jan 2026 | +15% | -60% |
| Dec 2025 | +19% | -65% |
| Nov 2025 | +19% | -66% |
| Oct 2025 | -5% | -66% |
| Sep 2025 | -16% | -62% |
| Aug 2025 | -19% | -62% |
| Jul 2025 | -18% | -68% |
| Jun 2025 | -14% | -53% |
| May 2025 | -18% | -51% |
| Apr 2025 | -1% | -55% |
| Mar 2025 | -9% | -53% |
| Feb 2025 | +2% | -38% |
| Jan 2025 | -10% | -43% |
| Dec 2024 | -15% | -41% |
| Nov 2024 | -12% | -27% |
| Oct 2024 | -8% | -24% |
| Sep 2024 | -2% | -19% |
| Aug 2024 | +6% | -5% |
| Jul 2024 | -11% | -10% |
| Jun 2024 | +0% | -3% |
| June 25, 2024 | 0% | 0% |
Lilly: $904.61 to $1,281.91. Novo: $146.91 to $38.67, its American depositary shares, which trade on the NYSE; the line starts after their two-for-one split in September 2023. The prices don't show why the stocks moved. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.Prices
The case for Lilly, and where Novo stands
Leerink analyst David Risinger wrote in a client note that the results "strengthen the case for retatrutide's long-term differentiation," BioPharma Dive reported. He expects retatrutide sales of $15 billion in 2032, above the $10 billion Wall Street consensus, according to the outlet.BioPharma Dive
Novo "is aiming to catch up," BioPharma Dive wrote. It has yet to launch a drug that works on two hormones, and its three-hormone drugs are in Phase 2 trials, the outlet reported.BioPharma Dive
Lilly is also testing retatrutide head to head against its own tirzepatide, sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro, in TRIUMPH-5, which is still running.Lilly Lilly says it plans to ask the FDA for approval in the first quarter of 2027.Lilly
Also in the records: Congress and the two stocks
The records don't tie any of these trades to the trial. Members of Congress or their families made 21 trades in Lilly stock and 6 in Novo's this year, KeyVex's records show. Nearly all were in the smallest range members report, $1,001 to $15,000.KeyVex The largest Lilly purchase among them was Rep. Gil Cisneros's: $50,001 to $100,000 of Lilly stock on June 10, in a trust account at Wells Fargo Advisors, his House filing shows. It was one of 66 trades on that filing.PTR
What to watch
Lilly reports third-quarter results, with a call at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Detailed TRANSCEND-T2D-2 results at a medical meeting and in a journal, Lilly said.
Lilly plans to submit retatrutide to the FDA for approval.
The paper trail
Lilly's retatrutide topline releases in 2026, and the House filing cited here.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 28, 2026, 6:45 a.m. | Release | Lilly | TRANSCEND-T2D-2: retatrutide vs. Ozempic 2 mg, 80 weeks. |
| July 23, 2026, 6:45 a.m. | Release | Lilly | TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 topline results; FDA filing planned for Q1 2027. |
| July 2, 2026 | PTR | Rep. Gil Cisneros | Lilly purchase of $50,001 to $100,000 on June 10. |
| May 21, 2026, 6:45 a.m. | Release | Lilly | TRIUMPH-1 topline results. |
| March 19, 2026, 6:45 a.m. | Release | Lilly | TRANSCEND-T2D-1 topline results. |
Sources
10 sources, 6 of them public records
Public records
- Eli Lilly, "Lilly's retatrutide delivered greater A1C reduction and more than double the weight loss of Ozempic's highest approved dose in head-to-head trial"PR Newswire · Oct. 28, 2026
- Eli Lilly, retatrutide TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 topline resultsPR Newswire · July 23, 2026
- Eli Lilly, retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 topline resultsPR Newswire · May 21, 2026
- Eli Lilly, retatrutide TRANSCEND-T2D-1 topline resultsPR Newswire · March 19, 2026
- Eli Lilly, date and conference call for third-quarter 2026 resultsPR Newswire · Oct. 15, 2026
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros, periodic transaction report 20034906Clerk of the House · July 2, 2026
Rules and references
- TRANSCEND-T2D-2 (NCT06260722) study recordClinicalTrials.gov · accessed Oct. 28, 2026
Reporting
- "Lilly's 'triple-G' drug tops Novo's Ozempic in diabetes trial" (Jonathan Gardner)BioPharma Dive · Oct. 28, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for LLY, NVO, SPY and QQQ, and Oct. 28 intraday quotes (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 28, 2026
- Congressional trades in LLY and NVO, 2026KeyVex · through Oct. 28, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Trial figures are Lilly's topline results for TRANSCEND-T2D-2, as its Oct. 28 release states them, for the efficacy estimand: what would have happened had every participant stayed on the drug for 80 weeks without adding other glucose-lowering medicine. Discontinuation and side-effect rates are from the same release. The full data have not been published.
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. Novo's are its American depositary shares (NVO). Novo split its shares two for one on Sept. 20, 2023; its June 25, 2024 close of $146.91 is the highest in KeyVex's as-traded series after that date. Changes: Novo $146.91 to $38.67 is -73.7%; Lilly $904.61 to $1,281.91 is +41.7%. Readout-day moves are close to close: Novo March 19 $37.45 to $37.08 (-0.99%), May 21 $45.07 to $44.39 (-1.51%), July 23 $48.19 to $48.18 (-0.02%); Lilly March 19 $918.05 to $917.50 (-0.06%), May 21 $1,018.87 to $1,041.65 (+2.24%), July 23 $1,163.01 to $1,185.87 (+1.97%). The Oct. 28 figures are IEX last-sale quotes via Tiingo at 2:10 p.m. Eastern, not closes.
- Congressional trades are KeyVex's records of periodic transaction reports with 2026 transaction dates, with rows an amendment restates left out; amounts are the ranges members file. The Cisneros trade was checked against his filing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Lilly stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider sales, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration of an injection pen and a Lilly building, not a photograph of a real Lilly product or site: retatrutide is not approved and is not sold. This is a reading of company releases, public filings and news reports, not investment or medical advice.