Macro desk
ITB
ITBSix Fed cuts, one hike: mortgage rates barely dipped, then hit their highest since 2023
Traders expect the Fed to hold rates on Oct. 28, HousingWire reported. Freddie Mac's data show the average 30-year mortgage rate was higher on Oct. 22 than when the Fed began its last six cuts, in September 2024.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 9 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 9 public recordsThe short versionTap to readTap to close
- From September 2024 to December 2025 the Fed cut its rate six times, 1.75 points in all. The 30-year mortgage rate was 6.09% at the start and never fell much below it.
- Instead it climbed, to 7.40% in October 2026. That is about $348 more a month on a $400,000 loan than at 6.09%, by KeyVex's math.
- The Fed sets an overnight rate between banks. A St. Louis Fed economist has measured home-loan rates against a longer-term one, the 10-year Treasury yield. On Oct. 5 it closed at its highest since 2002.
- In September the Fed raised its rate a quarter point, its first increase since July 2023, saying inflation "remains elevated."
- Next on the calendar: the Fed's decision Oct. 28, Freddie Mac's next weekly rate Oct. 29, and the Fed's December meeting, Dec. 8-9.
The decision: The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee announces its decision Oct. 28, at the end of a two-day meeting.Fed On Oct. 27, 90.6% of interest-rate traders expected no change, by CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 35.8% a month earlier, HousingWire reported.HousingWire For anyone with a mortgage, or hoping for one, the question is what the Fed's earlier cuts did to home-loan rates.
The gap: The Fed cut its rate six times from September 2024 to December 2025, 1.75 percentage points in all.FREDFedFed Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.09% in its weekly survey published the day after the first cut. It never fell more than about a tenth of a point below that; the low was 5.98%, in February 2026. In October it reached 7.40%, the highest since November 2023.Freddie MacKeyVex data
Why it matters: The Fed sets the rate banks charge each other overnight. In 2020, St. Louis Fed economist William Emmons measured the 30-year mortgage rate against a longer-term rate, the 10-year Treasury yield.St. Louis Fed Trading in Treasury bonds sets that yield. It was 3.73% the day after the first cut and closed at 5.31% on Oct. 5, 2026, its highest close since 2002.Treasury
View the data
| Rate | Monthly principal and interest | Note |
|---|---|---|
| At 6.09% (Freddie Mac's rate, Sept. 19, 2024) | $2,421 | $2,421 a month |
| At 7.40% (Freddie Mac's rate, Oct. 8 and 15, 2026) | $2,770 | $2,770 a month |
At 6.09%, the payment is $2,421.40 a month; at 7.40%, $2,769.52: $348.12 more, or about $4,177 a year. Rates: Freddie Mac, via FRED.Freddie Mac
Six cuts, then a hike
The cutting started with half a point on Sept. 18, 2024, "in light of the progress on inflation," the committee said.Fed Five quarter-point cuts followed, the last on Dec. 10, 2025, to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Three of the 12 voters dissented that day: one wanted a bigger cut and two wanted none.Fed
Then prices sped up. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, up from 2.4% in the year to February, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.BLSKeyVex data In July, three voters dissented in favor of a rate increase.Fed On Sept. 16 the committee raised its range a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4.00%, by a vote of 12 to 0. It was the Fed's first increase since July 2023. "Inflation remains elevated," its statement said.FedFRED
The Fed's rate fell; mortgage rates and the 10-year yield roseShow chartHide chart
3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%
2024-09-192024-12-262025-04-032025-07-102025-10-162026-01-222026-04-302026-10-22
30-year mortgage rate (Freddie Mac)10-year Treasury yieldFed's target rate (top of range)
View the data
| Week of Freddie Mac's survey | 30-year mortgage rate (Freddie Mac) | 10-year Treasury yield | Fed's target rate (top of range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 7.32% | 4.96% | 4.00% |
| 2026-10-15 | 7.40% | 5.10% | 4.00% |
| 2026-10-08 | 7.40% | 5.22% | 4.00% |
| 2026-10-01 | 7.28% | 5.24% | 4.00% |
| 2026-09-24 | 7.03% | 5.18% | 4.00% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6.95% | 4.94% | 4.00% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6.76% | 4.95% | 3.75% |
| 2026-09-03 | 6.71% | 4.77% | 3.75% |
| 2026-08-27 | 6.66% | 4.67% | 3.75% |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.65% | 4.69% | 3.75% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6.67% | 4.63% | 3.75% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6.69% | 4.69% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-30 | 6.66% | 4.68% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-23 | 6.58% | 4.71% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-16 | 6.55% | 4.57% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-09 | 6.49% | 4.54% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-02 | 6.43% | 4.49% | 3.75% |
| 2026-06-25 | 6.49% | 4.40% | 3.75% |
| 2026-06-18 | 6.47% | 4.46% | 3.75% |
| 2026-06-11 | 6.52% | 4.45% | 3.75% |
| 2026-06-04 | 6.48% | 4.47% | 3.75% |
| 2026-05-28 | 6.53% | 4.45% | 3.75% |
| 2026-05-21 | 6.51% | 4.57% | 3.75% |
| 2026-05-14 | 6.36% | 4.47% | 3.75% |
| 2026-05-07 | 6.37% | 4.41% | 3.75% |
| 2026-04-30 | 6.30% | 4.40% | 3.75% |
| 2026-04-23 | 6.23% | 4.34% | 3.75% |
| 2026-04-16 | 6.30% | 4.32% | 3.75% |
| 2026-04-09 | 6.37% | 4.29% | 3.75% |
| 2026-04-02 | 6.46% | 4.31% | 3.75% |
| 2026-03-26 | 6.38% | 4.42% | 3.75% |
| 2026-03-19 | 6.22% | 4.25% | 3.75% |
| 2026-03-12 | 6.11% | 4.27% | 3.75% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.00% | 4.13% | 3.75% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.98% | 4.02% | 3.75% |
| 2026-02-19 | 6.01% | 4.08% | 3.75% |
| 2026-02-12 | 6.09% | 4.09% | 3.75% |
| 2026-02-05 | 6.11% | 4.21% | 3.75% |
| 2026-01-29 | 6.10% | 4.24% | 3.75% |
| 2026-01-22 | 6.09% | 4.26% | 3.75% |
| 2026-01-15 | 6.06% | 4.17% | 3.75% |
| 2026-01-08 | 6.16% | 4.19% | 3.75% |
| 2025-12-31 | 6.15% | 4.18% | 3.75% |
| 2025-12-24 | 6.18% | 4.15% | 3.75% |
| 2025-12-18 | 6.21% | 4.12% | 3.75% |
| 2025-12-11 | 6.22% | 4.14% | 3.75% |
| 2025-12-04 | 6.19% | 4.11% | 4.00% |
| 2025-11-26 | 6.23% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 2025-11-20 | 6.26% | 4.10% | 4.00% |
| 2025-11-13 | 6.24% | 4.11% | 4.00% |
| 2025-11-06 | 6.22% | 4.11% | 4.00% |
| 2025-10-30 | 6.17% | 4.11% | 4.00% |
| 2025-10-23 | 6.19% | 4.01% | 4.25% |
| 2025-10-16 | 6.27% | 3.99% | 4.25% |
| 2025-10-09 | 6.30% | 4.14% | 4.25% |
| 2025-10-02 | 6.34% | 4.10% | 4.25% |
| 2025-09-25 | 6.30% | 4.18% | 4.25% |
| 2025-09-18 | 6.26% | 4.11% | 4.25% |
| 2025-09-11 | 6.35% | 4.01% | 4.50% |
| 2025-09-04 | 6.50% | 4.17% | 4.50% |
| 2025-08-28 | 6.56% | 4.22% | 4.50% |
| 2025-08-21 | 6.58% | 4.33% | 4.50% |
| 2025-08-14 | 6.58% | 4.29% | 4.50% |
| 2025-08-07 | 6.63% | 4.23% | 4.50% |
| 2025-07-31 | 6.72% | 4.37% | 4.50% |
| 2025-07-24 | 6.74% | 4.43% | 4.50% |
| 2025-07-17 | 6.75% | 4.47% | 4.50% |
| 2025-07-10 | 6.72% | 4.35% | 4.50% |
| 2025-07-03 | 6.67% | 4.35% | 4.50% |
| 2025-06-26 | 6.77% | 4.26% | 4.50% |
| 2025-06-18 | 6.81% | 4.38% | 4.50% |
| 2025-06-12 | 6.84% | 4.36% | 4.50% |
| 2025-06-05 | 6.85% | 4.40% | 4.50% |
| 2025-05-29 | 6.89% | 4.43% | 4.50% |
| 2025-05-22 | 6.86% | 4.54% | 4.50% |
| 2025-05-15 | 6.81% | 4.45% | 4.50% |
| 2025-05-08 | 6.76% | 4.37% | 4.50% |
| 2025-05-01 | 6.76% | 4.25% | 4.50% |
| 2025-04-24 | 6.81% | 4.32% | 4.50% |
| 2025-04-17 | 6.83% | 4.34% | 4.50% |
| 2025-04-10 | 6.62% | 4.40% | 4.50% |
| 2025-04-03 | 6.64% | 4.06% | 4.50% |
| 2025-03-27 | 6.65% | 4.38% | 4.50% |
| 2025-03-20 | 6.67% | 4.24% | 4.50% |
| 2025-03-13 | 6.65% | 4.27% | 4.50% |
| 2025-03-06 | 6.63% | 4.29% | 4.50% |
| 2025-02-27 | 6.76% | 4.29% | 4.50% |
| 2025-02-20 | 6.85% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 2025-02-13 | 6.87% | 4.52% | 4.50% |
| 2025-02-06 | 6.89% | 4.45% | 4.50% |
| 2025-01-30 | 6.95% | 4.52% | 4.50% |
| 2025-01-23 | 6.96% | 4.65% | 4.50% |
| 2025-01-16 | 7.04% | 4.61% | 4.50% |
| 2025-01-09 | 6.93% | 4.68% | 4.50% |
| 2025-01-02 | 6.91% | 4.57% | 4.50% |
| 2024-12-26 | 6.85% | 4.58% | 4.50% |
| 2024-12-19 | 6.72% | 4.57% | 4.50% |
| 2024-12-12 | 6.60% | 4.32% | 4.75% |
| 2024-12-05 | 6.69% | 4.17% | 4.75% |
| 2024-11-27 | 6.81% | 4.25% | 4.75% |
| 2024-11-21 | 6.84% | 4.43% | 4.75% |
| 2024-11-14 | 6.78% | 4.43% | 4.75% |
| 2024-11-07 | 6.79% | 4.31% | 5.00% |
| 2024-10-31 | 6.72% | 4.28% | 5.00% |
| 2024-10-24 | 6.54% | 4.21% | 5.00% |
| 2024-10-17 | 6.44% | 4.09% | 5.00% |
| 2024-10-10 | 6.32% | 4.09% | 5.00% |
| 2024-10-03 | 6.12% | 3.85% | 5.00% |
| 2024-09-26 | 6.08% | 3.79% | 5.00% |
| 2024-09-19 | 6.09% | 3.73% | 5.00% |
Sources: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average, the 10-year Treasury yield and the top of the Fed's target range, all via FRED.Freddie MacTreasuryFRED The 10-year yield shown is the day's close on each Freddie Mac survey date.
What the long rate did
The 10-year yield reached 5% in mid-September and closed at 5.31% on Oct. 5.Treasury Yahoo Finance tied the Sept. 23 jump to rising oil prices, business data that came in hotter than expected and concern about more Fed increases. It also noted that long-term yields had risen this year as investors demanded more pay to hold government debt, and that companies were borrowing more to build AI.Yahoo Finance Fed Governor Michael Barr signaled that more increases are needed to bring down inflation, Yahoo Finance reported Sept. 23.Yahoo Finance
The yield has eased since. It closed at 5.00% on Oct. 26, and Freddie Mac's rate slipped to 7.32% on Oct. 22.TreasuryFreddie Mac HousingWire's Mortgage Rates Center put the average rate on 30-year conforming loans at 7.38% on Oct. 27.HousingWire
Who feels it
Mortgage applications fell for a seventh straight week, and purchases ran 18% below last year's pace, Mortgage Bankers Association chief executive Bob Broeksmit said, HousingWire reported.HousingWire
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF, a fund of homebuilder and related stocks, closed at $125.56 on Sept. 18, 2024, the day of the first cut. It closed at $90.35 on Oct. 27, 2026, 28% lower.Prices
The homebuilder-stock fund since the Fed began cuttingDaily close, Sept. 18, 2024 to Oct. 27, 2026 ▼ 28.0%Show chartHide chart
ITBS&P 500 (rebased)1News in this story
Congress BuyCongress SellInsider BuyInsider SellForm 1448-KLobbying
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Daily closes as traded · Close Prices from Tiingo.comColored dots are filings · White numbered dots are the news in this story · ITB on KeyVex
- 1Sept. 18, 2024 The Fed's first cut. A half-point cut, to 4.75% to 5%. ITB closed at $125.56.
- 2Dec. 10, 2025 The sixth and last cut. To 3.50% to 3.75%, with three dissents.
- 3Feb. 26, 2026 Mortgage rates bottom at 5.98%. Freddie Mac's lowest reading since the cuts began.
- 4Sept. 16, 2026 The Fed raises rates. A quarter-point increase, 12-0, its first since July 2023.
- 5Oct. 5, 2026 The 10-year yield closes at 5.31%. Its highest close since May 2002.
- 6Oct. 27, 2026 The day before the decision. ITB closed at $90.35.
View the data (529 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | $90.35 | +0.5% |
| 2026-10-26 | $89.87 | −0.8% |
| 2026-10-23 | $90.57 | −0.7% |
| 2026-10-22 | $91.24 | +5.4% |
| 2026-10-21 | $86.57 | −0.9% |
| 2026-10-20 | $87.32 | +2.8% |
| 2026-10-19 | $84.94 | −1.7% |
| 2026-10-16 | $86.40 | −0.4% |
| 2026-10-15 | $86.75 | +4.0% |
| 2026-10-14 | $83.39 | −1.5% |
| 2026-10-13 | $84.64 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-12 | $83.99 | −0.9% |
| 2026-10-09 | $84.76 | −1.3% |
| 2026-10-08 | $85.87 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-07 | $84.70 | −2.6% |
| 2026-10-06 | $86.95 | +1.6% |
| 2026-10-05 | $85.58 | −1.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | $86.64 | −0.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | $87.37 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | $87.02 | −1.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | $88.38 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-28 | $88.75 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | $89.43 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-24 | $88.31 | −0.5% |
| 2026-09-23 | $88.79 | −2.5% |
| 2026-09-22 | $91.03 | +3.2% |
| 2026-09-21 | $88.20 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-18 | $87.41 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-17 | $88.55 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-16 | $88.12 | −1.1% |
| 2026-09-15 | $89.12 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-14 | $90.05 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-11 | $89.54 | +1.5% |
| 2026-09-10 | $88.22 | −2.3% |
| 2026-09-09 | $90.31 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-08 | $91.05 | −3.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | $93.91 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-03 | $93.62 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-02 | $92.82 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-01 | $92.36 | −2.5% |
| 2026-08-31 | $94.69 | −1.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | $96.41 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-27 | $95.63 | −1.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | $97.31 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-25 | $98.16 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | $97.81 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | $97.49 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-20 | $96.74 | −2.5% |
| 2026-08-19 | $99.26 | +3.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | $96.28 | −1.6% |
| 2026-08-17 | $97.84 | −1.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | $98.78 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-13 | $99.53 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | $98.17 | −2.3% |
| 2026-08-11 | $100.50 | +2.1% |
| 2026-08-10 | $98.39 | −2.7% |
| 2026-08-07 | $101.14 | +2.7% |
| 2026-08-06 | $98.47 | −2.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | $100.88 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-04 | $99.49 | +2.6% |
| 2026-08-03 | $97.01 | +2.8% |
| 2026-07-31 | $94.34 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-30 | $95.47 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-29 | $96.58 | −3.7% |
| 2026-07-28 | $100.33 | +2.4% |
| 2026-07-27 | $97.98 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | $97.09 | +2.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | $94.54 | −0.9% |
| 2026-07-22 | $95.44 | +0.5% |
| 2026-07-21 | $94.93 | −0.5% |
| 2026-07-20 | $95.41 | −2.0% |
| 2026-07-17 | $97.33 | −2.9% |
| 2026-07-16 | $100.19 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-15 | $97.94 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07-14 | $97.13 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07-13 | $96.30 | −1.5% |
| 2026-07-10 | $97.76 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07-09 | $96.89 | +1.0% |
| 2026-07-08 | $95.91 | −4.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | $99.87 | −1.4% |
| 2026-07-06 | $101.31 | −1.5% |
| 2026-07-02 | $102.90 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-01 | $102.14 | −2.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | $104.48 | +0.5% |
| 2026-06-29 | $103.97 | −0.9% |
| 2026-06-26 | $104.90 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-25 | $104.25 | +0.9% |
| 2026-06-24 | $103.32 | +6.2% |
| 2026-06-23 | $97.33 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-22 | $97.34 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-18 | $99.25 | +3.6% |
| 2026-06-17 | $95.79 | −2.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | $98.26 | +1.2% |
| 2026-06-15 | $97.09 | +0.1% |
| 2026-06-12 | $96.95 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-11 | $97.74 | +4.4% |
| 2026-06-10 | $93.59 | −2.8% |
| 2026-06-09 | $96.27 | +4.0% |
| 2026-06-08 | $92.55 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-05 | $92.90 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-04 | $93.38 | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | $92.46 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | $93.25 | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-01 | $93.02 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | $93.06 | −0.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | $93.18 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-27 | $93.57 | +1.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | $92.09 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-22 | $90.97 | +0.2% |
| 2026-05-21 | $90.82 | +0.8% |
| 2026-05-20 | $90.14 | +4.5% |
| 2026-05-19 | $86.23 | −1.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | $87.51 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-15 | $86.45 | −3.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | $89.44 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-13 | $88.97 | −1.5% |
| 2026-05-12 | $90.34 | −1.3% |
| 2026-05-11 | $91.49 | −1.6% |
| 2026-05-08 | $93.00 | +0.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | $92.93 | −2.5% |
| 2026-05-06 | $95.32 | +2.7% |
| 2026-05-05 | $92.81 | +1.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | $91.28 | −3.8% |
| 2026-05-01 | $94.84 | −1.6% |
| 2026-04-30 | $96.36 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | $95.11 | −2.9% |
| 2026-04-28 | $97.92 | −1.4% |
| 2026-04-27 | $99.36 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-24 | $99.50 | −1.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | $100.83 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | $99.77 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-21 | $100.16 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-20 | $100.01 | +2.2% |
| 2026-04-17 | $97.90 | +4.6% |
| 2026-04-16 | $93.61 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-15 | $93.94 | −1.7% |
| 2026-04-14 | $95.60 | +0.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | $95.26 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-10 | $94.27 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | $94.65 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-08 | $93.48 | +5.2% |
| 2026-04-07 | $88.85 | −2.8% |
| 2026-04-06 | $91.38 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | $90.25 | −0.8% |
| 2026-04-01 | $91.02 | +0.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $90.55 | +2.8% |
| 2026-03-30 | $88.08 | −0.9% |
| 2026-03-27 | $88.91 | −1.6% |
| 2026-03-26 | $90.33 | −1.6% |
| 2026-03-25 | $91.82 | +0.7% |
| 2026-03-24 | $91.20 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-23 | $91.37 | +3.5% |
| 2026-03-20 | $88.27 | −2.6% |
| 2026-03-19 | $90.64 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-18 | $91.36 | −3.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | $94.23 | −0.1% |
| 2026-03-16 | $94.28 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | $93.08 | +0.5% |
| 2026-03-12 | $92.64 | −2.9% |
| 2026-03-11 | $95.36 | −1.5% |
| 2026-03-10 | $96.85 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-09 | $97.85 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-06 | $98.43 | −2.1% |
| 2026-03-05 | $100.58 | −2.5% |
| 2026-03-04 | $103.17 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-03 | $103.69 | −1.2% |
| 2026-03-02 | $104.96 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-27 | $107.52 | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $107.24 | +0.8% |
| 2026-02-25 | $106.43 | −3.4% |
| 2026-02-24 | $110.15 | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-23 | $109.59 | −1.2% |
| 2026-02-20 | $110.91 | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-19 | $110.30 | −1.6% |
| 2026-02-18 | $112.10 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | $112.40 | −1.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $113.57 | +1.0% |
| 2026-02-12 | $112.40 | −0.4% |
| 2026-02-11 | $112.80 | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-10 | $112.47 | +3.7% |
| 2026-02-09 | $108.42 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-06 | $109.24 | +1.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $108.19 | −0.5% |
| 2026-02-04 | $108.74 | +3.5% |
| 2026-02-03 | $105.09 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-02 | $102.68 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-30 | $102.03 | −1.4% |
| 2026-01-29 | $103.48 | +0.3% |
| 2026-01-28 | $103.18 | −0.1% |
| 2026-01-27 | $103.29 | −1.2% |
| 2026-01-26 | $104.57 | −0.6% |
| 2026-01-23 | $105.19 | −1.7% |
| 2026-01-22 | $107.04 | −1.1% |
| 2026-01-21 | $108.19 | +2.5% |
| 2026-01-20 | $105.51 | −2.2% |
| 2026-01-16 | $107.92 | −1.4% |
| 2026-01-15 | $109.41 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-14 | $107.96 | −0.9% |
| 2026-01-13 | $108.93 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | $107.89 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01-09 | $106.99 | +6.3% |
| 2026-01-08 | $100.67 | +4.2% |
| 2026-01-07 | $96.59 | −2.4% |
| 2026-01-06 | $98.98 | +0.7% |
| 2026-01-05 | $98.27 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01-02 | $97.49 | +1.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | $96.30 | −1.0% |
| 2025-12-30 | $97.29 | −0.3% |
| 2025-12-29 | $97.61 | −0.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | $98.05 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-24 | $98.06 | +1.0% |
| 2025-12-23 | $97.10 | −0.7% |
| 2025-12-22 | $97.78 | −0.4% |
| 2025-12-19 | $98.18 | −1.7% |
| 2025-12-18 | $99.89 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | $99.87 | −1.2% |
| 2025-12-16 | $101.04 | −1.2% |
| 2025-12-15 | $102.29 | −0.2% |
| 2025-12-12 | $102.53 | −0.3% |
| 2025-12-11 | $102.82 | +0.6% |
| 2025-12-10 | $102.17 | +3.2% |
| 2025-12-09 | $99.01 | −1.6% |
| 2025-12-08 | $100.59 | −2.1% |
| 2025-12-05 | $102.71 | −0.6% |
| 2025-12-04 | $103.34 | −2.1% |
| 2025-12-03 | $105.59 | +2.1% |
| 2025-12-02 | $103.46 | −0.2% |
| 2025-12-01 | $103.64 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-28 | $103.91 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-26 | $103.89 | +1.3% |
| 2025-11-25 | $102.59 | +4.7% |
| 2025-11-24 | $97.95 | −0.5% |
| 2025-11-21 | $98.46 | +5.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | $93.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $93.82 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-18 | $93.81 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-17 | $94.09 | −3.1% |
| 2025-11-14 | $97.11 | −0.7% |
| 2025-11-13 | $97.79 | −1.6% |
| 2025-11-12 | $99.43 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-11 | $99.73 | +0.9% |
| 2025-11-10 | $98.84 | +0.2% |
| 2025-11-07 | $98.68 | +0.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | $97.79 | −0.5% |
| 2025-11-05 | $98.28 | −0.6% |
| 2025-11-04 | $98.84 | +0.1% |
| 2025-11-03 | $98.70 | −1.7% |
| 2025-10-31 | $100.42 | +0.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $100.23 | −0.4% |
| 2025-10-29 | $100.67 | −3.0% |
| 2025-10-28 | $103.75 | −0.4% |
| 2025-10-27 | $104.16 | +0.2% |
| 2025-10-24 | $103.97 | −0.5% |
| 2025-10-23 | $104.44 | +0.6% |
| 2025-10-22 | $103.82 | −1.8% |
| 2025-10-21 | $105.70 | +1.8% |
| 2025-10-20 | $103.88 | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-17 | $103.50 | +0.7% |
| 2025-10-16 | $102.78 | −0.6% |
| 2025-10-15 | $103.36 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-14 | $103.39 | +3.1% |
| 2025-10-13 | $100.24 | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-10 | $99.84 | −1.2% |
| 2025-10-09 | $101.09 | −2.6% |
| 2025-10-08 | $103.79 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-07 | $103.74 | −3.0% |
| 2025-10-06 | $107.00 | −2.1% |
| 2025-10-03 | $109.24 | +0.9% |
| 2025-10-02 | $108.26 | +0.1% |
| 2025-10-01 | $108.13 | +0.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | $107.25 | −0.3% |
| 2025-09-29 | $107.55 | +0.6% |
| 2025-09-26 | $106.93 | +1.4% |
| 2025-09-25 | $105.50 | −1.5% |
| 2025-09-24 | $107.13 | +0.1% |
| 2025-09-23 | $107.03 | +0.3% |
| 2025-09-22 | $106.67 | −2.0% |
| 2025-09-19 | $108.83 | −1.7% |
| 2025-09-18 | $110.69 | +0.3% |
| 2025-09-17 | $110.41 | −1.1% |
| 2025-09-16 | $111.60 | −0.5% |
| 2025-09-15 | $112.16 | −1.3% |
| 2025-09-12 | $113.68 | −1.9% |
| 2025-09-11 | $115.91 | +2.8% |
| 2025-09-10 | $112.80 | −0.5% |
| 2025-09-09 | $113.42 | −3.2% |
| 2025-09-08 | $117.14 | +0.4% |
| 2025-09-05 | $116.70 | +2.2% |
| 2025-09-04 | $114.17 | +3.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | $110.85 | +0.6% |
| 2025-09-02 | $110.18 | −0.5% |
| 2025-08-29 | $110.70 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-28 | $110.70 | −0.1% |
| 2025-08-27 | $110.78 | −0.1% |
| 2025-08-26 | $110.88 | −0.6% |
| 2025-08-25 | $111.53 | −1.2% |
| 2025-08-22 | $112.92 | +5.3% |
| 2025-08-21 | $107.28 | −0.8% |
| 2025-08-20 | $108.11 | −2.7% |
| 2025-08-19 | $111.07 | +1.8% |
| 2025-08-18 | $109.09 | −0.5% |
| 2025-08-15 | $109.62 | +0.1% |
| 2025-08-14 | $109.48 | −1.5% |
| 2025-08-13 | $111.20 | +4.5% |
| 2025-08-12 | $106.46 | +3.2% |
| 2025-08-11 | $103.18 | −0.7% |
| 2025-08-08 | $103.86 | +0.5% |
| 2025-08-07 | $103.31 | +0.3% |
| 2025-08-06 | $102.97 | −0.6% |
| 2025-08-05 | $103.59 | +1.5% |
| 2025-08-04 | $102.04 | +2.0% |
| 2025-08-01 | $100.01 | +2.7% |
| 2025-07-31 | $97.41 | −0.8% |
| 2025-07-30 | $98.17 | −2.5% |
| 2025-07-29 | $100.67 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-28 | $100.67 | +0.2% |
| 2025-07-25 | $100.43 | +0.7% |
| 2025-07-24 | $99.76 | −2.2% |
| 2025-07-23 | $102.04 | −0.2% |
| 2025-07-22 | $102.28 | +7.9% |
| 2025-07-21 | $94.81 | −0.3% |
| 2025-07-18 | $95.08 | −0.6% |
| 2025-07-17 | $95.69 | +0.7% |
| 2025-07-16 | $95.03 | +0.9% |
| 2025-07-15 | $94.18 | −3.9% |
| 2025-07-14 | $98.02 | −0.7% |
| 2025-07-11 | $98.75 | −1.5% |
| 2025-07-10 | $100.23 | +1.0% |
| 2025-07-09 | $99.21 | +3.6% |
| 2025-07-08 | $95.76 | +0.7% |
| 2025-07-07 | $95.10 | −1.3% |
| 2025-07-03 | $96.36 | −1.7% |
| 2025-07-02 | $98.07 | +1.0% |
| 2025-07-01 | $97.13 | +4.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | $93.17 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | $93.20 | +1.0% |
| 2025-06-26 | $92.26 | +0.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | $91.83 | −1.5% |
| 2025-06-24 | $93.24 | +0.8% |
| 2025-06-23 | $92.52 | +3.2% |
| 2025-06-20 | $89.64 | +2.2% |
| 2025-06-18 | $87.74 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-17 | $87.71 | −2.8% |
| 2025-06-16 | $90.25 | −0.1% |
| 2025-06-13 | $90.31 | −2.9% |
| 2025-06-12 | $93.04 | +0.6% |
| 2025-06-11 | $92.48 | −1.8% |
| 2025-06-10 | $94.17 | +2.7% |
| 2025-06-09 | $91.70 | +1.1% |
| 2025-06-06 | $90.67 | −1.2% |
| 2025-06-05 | $91.75 | −0.1% |
| 2025-06-04 | $91.82 | +2.1% |
| 2025-06-03 | $89.94 | +1.6% |
| 2025-06-02 | $88.50 | −1.1% |
| 2025-05-30 | $89.48 | −0.3% |
| 2025-05-29 | $89.71 | +0.7% |
| 2025-05-28 | $89.05 | −2.8% |
| 2025-05-27 | $91.57 | +2.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $89.74 | −0.5% |
| 2025-05-22 | $90.15 | −0.4% |
| 2025-05-21 | $90.55 | −2.8% |
| 2025-05-20 | $93.15 | −1.4% |
| 2025-05-19 | $94.52 | −0.9% |
| 2025-05-16 | $95.42 | +1.5% |
| 2025-05-15 | $94.05 | +0.8% |
| 2025-05-14 | $93.26 | −3.0% |
| 2025-05-13 | $96.14 | +0.2% |
| 2025-05-12 | $95.99 | +4.3% |
| 2025-05-09 | $92.05 | −0.7% |
| 2025-05-08 | $92.72 | +1.7% |
| 2025-05-07 | $91.13 | +0.2% |
| 2025-05-06 | $90.95 | −2.1% |
| 2025-05-05 | $92.89 | −0.8% |
| 2025-05-02 | $93.66 | +2.0% |
| 2025-05-01 | $91.86 | −0.2% |
| 2025-04-30 | $92.09 | +0.5% |
| 2025-04-29 | $91.59 | +0.2% |
| 2025-04-28 | $91.41 | +0.2% |
| 2025-04-25 | $91.26 | −1.0% |
| 2025-04-24 | $92.15 | +1.8% |
| 2025-04-23 | $90.51 | −0.1% |
| 2025-04-22 | $90.64 | +3.6% |
| 2025-04-21 | $87.48 | −1.8% |
| 2025-04-17 | $89.07 | +2.1% |
| 2025-04-16 | $87.28 | −2.1% |
| 2025-04-15 | $89.13 | −0.9% |
| 2025-04-14 | $89.97 | +0.8% |
| 2025-04-11 | $89.24 | +1.1% |
| 2025-04-10 | $88.30 | −3.0% |
| 2025-04-09 | $91.00 | +6.4% |
| 2025-04-08 | $85.52 | −3.6% |
| 2025-04-07 | $88.73 | −4.1% |
| 2025-04-04 | $92.55 | +2.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | $90.76 | −6.1% |
| 2025-04-02 | $96.61 | +1.5% |
| 2025-04-01 | $95.22 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $95.21 | +0.9% |
| 2025-03-28 | $94.37 | −2.6% |
| 2025-03-27 | $96.84 | −0.1% |
| 2025-03-26 | $96.96 | −0.2% |
| 2025-03-25 | $97.12 | −0.5% |
| 2025-03-24 | $97.59 | +2.9% |
| 2025-03-21 | $94.83 | −1.7% |
| 2025-03-20 | $96.45 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-19 | $96.48 | +1.6% |
| 2025-03-18 | $94.95 | −1.1% |
| 2025-03-17 | $95.96 | +0.6% |
| 2025-03-14 | $95.41 | +1.7% |
| 2025-03-13 | $93.86 | −2.6% |
| 2025-03-12 | $96.33 | −1.1% |
| 2025-03-11 | $97.43 | −2.2% |
| 2025-03-10 | $99.62 | −0.3% |
| 2025-03-07 | $99.94 | −0.3% |
| 2025-03-06 | $100.21 | +1.3% |
| 2025-03-05 | $98.94 | +2.5% |
| 2025-03-04 | $96.57 | −0.6% |
| 2025-03-03 | $97.13 | −1.7% |
| 2025-02-28 | $98.84 | +0.5% |
| 2025-02-27 | $98.39 | −1.4% |
| 2025-02-26 | $99.78 | −1.2% |
| 2025-02-25 | $101.00 | +3.2% |
| 2025-02-24 | $97.85 | −0.5% |
| 2025-02-21 | $98.31 | −2.5% |
| 2025-02-20 | $100.79 | +0.3% |
| 2025-02-19 | $100.52 | −1.5% |
| 2025-02-18 | $102.10 | −1.2% |
| 2025-02-14 | $103.33 | +0.4% |
| 2025-02-13 | $102.93 | +1.2% |
| 2025-02-12 | $101.71 | −1.9% |
| 2025-02-11 | $103.65 | +0.5% |
| 2025-02-10 | $103.14 | +0.4% |
| 2025-02-07 | $102.72 | −3.1% |
| 2025-02-06 | $105.99 | −0.5% |
| 2025-02-05 | $106.51 | +1.0% |
| 2025-02-04 | $105.44 | +1.0% |
| 2025-02-03 | $104.44 | −2.6% |
| 2025-01-31 | $107.25 | −2.6% |
| 2025-01-30 | $110.11 | +2.5% |
| 2025-01-29 | $107.38 | −1.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | $109.17 | −2.0% |
| 2025-01-27 | $111.45 | +2.5% |
| 2025-01-24 | $108.76 | −0.9% |
| 2025-01-23 | $109.78 | +0.1% |
| 2025-01-22 | $109.72 | +0.5% |
| 2025-01-21 | $109.20 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-17 | $109.24 | +0.4% |
| 2025-01-16 | $108.81 | +0.8% |
| 2025-01-15 | $107.98 | +2.5% |
| 2025-01-14 | $105.31 | +2.9% |
| 2025-01-13 | $102.33 | +1.7% |
| 2025-01-10 | $100.66 | −2.1% |
| 2025-01-08 | $102.78 | +1.2% |
| 2025-01-07 | $101.59 | −1.4% |
| 2025-01-06 | $103.00 | −0.3% |
| 2025-01-03 | $103.31 | +1.2% |
| 2025-01-02 | $102.06 | −1.3% |
| 2024-12-31 | $103.39 | +0.1% |
| 2024-12-30 | $103.31 | −0.5% |
| 2024-12-27 | $103.84 | −1.1% |
| 2024-12-26 | $104.95 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-24 | $104.97 | +0.5% |
| 2024-12-23 | $104.48 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $104.51 | +1.1% |
| 2024-12-19 | $103.41 | −2.6% |
| 2024-12-18 | $106.15 | −4.1% |
| 2024-12-17 | $110.68 | −1.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | $111.79 | −1.1% |
| 2024-12-13 | $113.02 | −1.5% |
| 2024-12-12 | $114.75 | −1.3% |
| 2024-12-11 | $116.28 | −0.8% |
| 2024-12-10 | $117.19 | −2.3% |
| 2024-12-09 | $119.95 | +0.8% |
| 2024-12-06 | $118.98 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-05 | $118.96 | −1.3% |
| 2024-12-04 | $120.47 | −2.2% |
| 2024-12-03 | $123.12 | −0.2% |
| 2024-12-02 | $123.34 | −0.4% |
| 2024-11-29 | $123.82 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-27 | $123.78 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-26 | $123.76 | −2.1% |
| 2024-11-25 | $126.43 | +5.1% |
| 2024-11-22 | $120.31 | +1.6% |
| 2024-11-21 | $118.45 | +0.8% |
| 2024-11-20 | $117.50 | +0.2% |
| 2024-11-19 | $117.28 | −0.2% |
| 2024-11-18 | $117.48 | −0.2% |
| 2024-11-15 | $117.72 | −1.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | $118.92 | +0.7% |
| 2024-11-13 | $118.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | $118.10 | −2.8% |
| 2024-11-11 | $121.52 | +0.4% |
| 2024-11-08 | $121.09 | +0.9% |
| 2024-11-07 | $120.02 | +0.9% |
| 2024-11-06 | $119.00 | −2.1% |
| 2024-11-05 | $121.58 | +2.3% |
| 2024-11-04 | $118.89 | +1.5% |
| 2024-11-01 | $117.15 | −0.1% |
| 2024-10-31 | $117.22 | −0.4% |
| 2024-10-30 | $117.74 | +0.2% |
| 2024-10-29 | $117.50 | −2.9% |
| 2024-10-28 | $120.95 | +1.0% |
| 2024-10-25 | $119.80 | −1.5% |
| 2024-10-24 | $121.63 | +1.1% |
| 2024-10-23 | $120.33 | −0.3% |
| 2024-10-22 | $120.69 | −3.3% |
| 2024-10-21 | $124.87 | −3.5% |
| 2024-10-18 | $129.34 | +1.2% |
| 2024-10-17 | $127.81 | −0.8% |
| 2024-10-16 | $128.87 | +1.3% |
| 2024-10-15 | $127.16 | +0.7% |
| 2024-10-14 | $126.33 | +2.1% |
| 2024-10-11 | $123.72 | +0.6% |
| 2024-10-10 | $122.94 | −1.5% |
| 2024-10-09 | $124.78 | +0.3% |
| 2024-10-08 | $124.46 | +0.8% |
| 2024-10-07 | $123.53 | −0.2% |
| 2024-10-04 | $123.72 | −1.8% |
| 2024-10-03 | $126.02 | −0.3% |
| 2024-10-02 | $126.37 | −0.9% |
| 2024-10-01 | $127.56 | +0.4% |
| 2024-09-30 | $127.10 | +0.3% |
| 2024-09-27 | $126.77 | +1.5% |
| 2024-09-26 | $124.87 | +0.5% |
| 2024-09-25 | $124.24 | −1.8% |
| 2024-09-24 | $126.52 | −0.1% |
| 2024-09-23 | $126.64 | +0.8% |
| 2024-09-20 | $125.59 | −2.3% |
| 2024-09-19 | $128.58 | +2.4% |
| 2024-09-18 | $125.56 |
Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.Prices
What the decision can do
"For 2027, I would watch inflation and the 10-year Treasury before I watch the next Fed headline," Tanya Bates of BOK Financial told HousingWire.HousingWire
Some see another increase in December. First American senior economist Sam Williamson said one is "widely expected," HousingWire reported.HousingWire "We believe the Fed is on track for an additional 25-basis-point rate hike in December," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said, Yahoo Finance reported Sept. 23. That is a quarter point.Yahoo Finance
Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage said the Fed was "quite likely" to "do nothing" at the Oct. 27-28 meeting. Looking further out, she said: "I think that if oil prices continue to soar, then the Fed should be raising rates in December," HousingWire reported.HousingWire
From Sept. 19, 2024 to Oct. 22, 2026, Freddie Mac's 30-year rate rose 1.23 points, from 6.09% to 7.32%. The 10-year yield rose the same 1.23 points, from 3.73% to 4.96%. The Fed's own rate was 1.50 points lower than before its first cut, after six cuts and one increase.Freddie MacTreasuryFRED
What to watch
The Fed's rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's news conference.
Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year mortgage rate, the first reading after the decision.
The Fed's last scheduled meeting of 2026.
Sources
15 sources, 9 of them public records
Public records
- FOMC statement: target range raised to 3-3/4 to 4 percentFederal Reserve · Sept. 16, 2026
- FOMC statement: target range held, three dissents for an increaseFederal Reserve · July 29, 2026
- FOMC statement: target range lowered to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percentFederal Reserve · Dec. 10, 2025
- FOMC statement: target range lowered by 1/2 point to 4-3/4 to 5 percentFederal Reserve · Sept. 18, 2024
- Meeting calendars and informationFederal Reserve · 2026
- Federal funds target range, upper limit (DFEDTARU)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED · through Oct. 28, 2026
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US)Freddie Mac, via FRED · through Oct. 22, 2026
- Market yield on US Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity (DGS10)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED · through Oct. 26, 2026
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, all items, US city average (CUUR0000SA0)US Bureau of Labor Statistics · through September 2026
Rules and references
- Board membersFederal Reserve · accessed Oct. 28, 2026
- "St. Louis Fed's Housing Market Perspectives: Why Haven't Mortgage Rates Fallen Further?" (William Emmons)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · June 16, 2020
Reporting
- "Mortgage rates drop below 7.5% ahead of expected Fed pause" (Neil Pierson)HousingWire · Oct. 27, 2026
- "10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 as market prices in another Fed rate hike" (Ines Ferré)Yahoo Finance · Sept. 23, 2026
Data
- Economic indicators: FRED and BLS seriesKeyVex · Oct. 28, 2026
- Daily closes for ITB, SPY and QQQ (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 27, 2026
How we got these numbers
- The Fed's rate is the top of its federal funds target range (FRED series DFEDTARU), which moved from 5.50% before Sept. 18, 2024 to 3.75% after Dec. 10, 2025 and to 4.00% after Sept. 16, 2026. The FRED series steps the day after each decision.
- Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average (MORTGAGE30US), dated on the day it is published: 6.09% on Sept. 19, 2024; a low of 5.98% on Feb. 26, 2026; 7.40% on Oct. 8 and Oct. 15, 2026; 7.32% on Oct. 22. The last reading at or above 7.40% before October 2026 was 7.44% on Nov. 16, 2023. HousingWire's 7.38% comes from a different survey, its Mortgage Rates Center, for 30-year conforming loans.
- The 10-year yield is the Treasury's daily constant-maturity close (DGS10): 3.73% on Sept. 19, 2024, 5.31% on Oct. 5, 2026 (the highest close since 5.32% on May 14, 2002), 4.96% on Oct. 22 and 5.00% on Oct. 26. In the chart, each week shows the yield on Freddie Mac's survey date, or the last close before it.
- Inflation is the change in the BLS consumer price index for all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted, from a year earlier: 336.94 in September 2026 against 324.80 in September 2025 (3.7%), and 326.785 in February 2026 against 319.082 (2.4%).
- The payments are principal and interest on a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan with monthly compounding, KeyVex's math: $2,421.40 at 6.09% and $2,769.52 at 7.40%, a difference of $348.12 a month. Taxes, insurance and fees are left out.
- The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration, not a photograph of a real place or event: the house is imagined, and the building behind it is drawn after the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building in Washington.
- ITB's closes are as traded, from Tiingo via KeyVex. The fund's chart filings layer is off by default; it shows a selection of KeyVex filings from the fund's page, not every filing.