About a fifth of SpaceX's 2025 revenue came from federal agencies. Democrats won Congress
Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3, CBS News and CNBC projected. The next morning SpaceX traded lower as the market rose. Its June prospectus lists party control of Congress as a risk.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public records
SPCX$141.31▲ 3.6%Close, Nov. 3. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Companies selling stock to the public must list the risks to their business. In June, SpaceX listed which party controls Congress. About a fifth of its 2025 revenue came from federal agencies.
- Democrats won both chambers on Nov. 3. Early Nov. 4, an S&P 500 fund was up 1.8%, and SpaceX was down, near the $135 its shares sold for in June.
- Why Congress matters to SpaceX: Congress votes federal agencies' budgets each year, and SpaceX says money for its programs is committed only as Congress makes appropriations.
- The other side: SpaceX calls itself the government's primary launch provider. President Trump keeps the veto, which limits what Democrats can block, TipRanks noted.
- The new Congress takes its seats in January.
The results: Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 midterms, CBS News and CNBC projected on election night.CBS NewsCNBC
The stock: By 9:45 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 4, the S&P 500 fund SPY was up 1.8%. SpaceX traded at $137.81, down 2.5% from its Nov. 3 close and less than $3 above the $135 its shares sold for in June.KeyVexProspectus It had risen 3.6% on Election Day.KeyVex SpaceX's filings give no reason for the move.10-Q CNBC and TipRanks tied the fall in SpaceX shares to the election results.CNBCTipRanks
Why it matters: SpaceX had named this risk itself. Its June prospectus, the document that sold its shares at $135, says which party controls the presidency or either chamber of Congress may affect its relationships with government agencies. The Nov. 3 vote was a midterm: the presidency was not on the ballot.ProspectusCBS News About a fifth of its 2025 revenue came from federal agencies, and Congress sets their budgets every year.Prospectus
SpaceX's stock since it began tradingDaily close, June 12 to Nov. 3, 2026 ▼ 12.2%Show chartHide chart
- 1June 12, 2026 First day of trading. Shares sold in the offering at $135. First close: $160.95.
- 2June 16, 2026 Its highest close. Close: $201.80.
- 3Aug. 5, 2026 Its lowest close. Close: $108.27, below the $135 offering price.
- 4Nov. 3, 2026 Election Day. Close: $141.31, before the results.
View the data (100 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | $141.31 | +3.6% |
| 2026-11-02 | $136.37 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-30 | $134.72 | −6.4% |
| 2026-10-29 | $143.89 | −0.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | $145.23 | −2.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | $148.58 | +1.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | $146.90 | −0.4% |
| 2026-10-23 | $147.49 | +1.9% |
| 2026-10-22 | $144.75 | −9.1% |
| 2026-10-21 | $159.31 | +7.8% |
| 2026-10-20 | $147.79 | −0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | $147.96 | +1.3% |
| 2026-10-16 | $146.03 | −1.7% |
| 2026-10-15 | $148.62 | −2.3% |
| 2026-10-14 | $152.16 | −2.8% |
| 2026-10-13 | $156.54 | −4.2% |
| 2026-10-12 | $163.42 | +0.5% |
| 2026-10-09 | $162.57 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-08 | $160.57 | −4.2% |
| 2026-10-07 | $167.60 | −2.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | $171.92 | +0.5% |
| 2026-10-05 | $171.09 | +7.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | $158.96 | +7.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | $148.07 | −1.8% |
| 2026-09-30 | $150.86 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | $149.24 | +2.6% |
| 2026-09-28 | $145.47 | −2.2% |
| 2026-09-25 | $148.68 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | $148.03 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-23 | $148.36 | −4.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | $154.72 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-21 | $151.85 | −0.6% |
| 2026-09-18 | $152.71 | −1.4% |
| 2026-09-17 | $154.81 | +2.6% |
| 2026-09-16 | $150.88 | +5.2% |
| 2026-09-15 | $143.49 | −3.1% |
| 2026-09-14 | $148.15 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | $151.21 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | $148.18 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | $147.55 | −3.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | $153.47 | +3.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | $147.95 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | $149.74 | +6.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | $140.71 | −1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | $142.23 | −1.0% |
| 2026-08-31 | $143.69 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | $141.50 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-27 | $140.87 | +0.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | $139.63 | +1.2% |
| 2026-08-25 | $137.95 | +2.2% |
| 2026-08-24 | $135.00 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | $136.97 | +2.2% |
| 2026-08-20 | $134.00 | −4.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | $139.65 | −2.6% |
| 2026-08-18 | $143.34 | −2.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | $146.23 | +4.4% |
| 2026-08-14 | $140.00 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | $141.29 | −3.3% |
| 2026-08-12 | $146.15 | +9.6% |
| 2026-08-11 | $133.29 | −3.9% |
| 2026-08-10 | $138.74 | +4.2% |
| 2026-08-07 | $133.11 | +15.8% |
| 2026-08-06 | $114.92 | +6.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | $108.27 | −13.6% |
| 2026-08-04 | $125.33 | +9.4% |
| 2026-08-03 | $114.53 | +5.7% |
| 2026-07-31 | $108.37 | −3.4% |
| 2026-07-30 | $112.20 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | $112.55 | −3.3% |
| 2026-07-28 | $116.41 | +2.6% |
| 2026-07-27 | $113.50 | −1.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | $115.07 | −2.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | $118.24 | +2.6% |
| 2026-07-22 | $115.26 | −6.7% |
| 2026-07-21 | $123.54 | +3.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | $119.85 | −3.3% |
| 2026-07-17 | $123.99 | −5.4% |
| 2026-07-16 | $131.11 | −3.1% |
| 2026-07-15 | $135.27 | −0.6% |
| 2026-07-14 | $136.08 | −2.2% |
| 2026-07-13 | $139.14 | −4.2% |
| 2026-07-10 | $145.30 | −4.5% |
| 2026-07-09 | $152.16 | +2.6% |
| 2026-07-08 | $148.30 | −0.8% |
| 2026-07-07 | $149.47 | −6.8% |
| 2026-07-06 | $160.42 | −1.0% |
| 2026-07-02 | $162.00 | +2.8% |
| 2026-07-01 | $157.54 | −7.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | $170.86 | +4.1% |
| 2026-06-29 | $164.19 | +7.2% |
| 2026-06-26 | $153.23 | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-25 | $153.00 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | $154.54 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | $156.11 | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-22 | $154.60 | −16.4% |
| 2026-06-18 | $185.00 | −3.6% |
| 2026-06-17 | $191.82 | −4.9% |
| 2026-06-16 | $201.80 | +4.8% |
| 2026-06-15 | $192.50 | +19.6% |
| 2026-06-12 | $160.95 |
Nov. 4 is not in the chart: the day had not closed when this story was written. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.Chart data
What SpaceX told investors
The warning sits in the prospectus's risk factors, under the government business.Prospectus It says the country's politics are "highly polarized," and that a change in Congress or in the administration can reshape spending priorities and how contracts are handed out.Prospectus
Our relationships with U.S. government agencies and the favorability of the regulatory and procurement environment in which we operate may be affected by which political party controls the presidency or one or both chambers of the U.S. Congress.
The same section says program money arrives in pieces. A contract is usually funded a little at the start, and more is committed "only as Congress makes appropriations in future fiscal years."Prospectus It also names shutdowns and stopgap budgets as risks.Prospectus
How much of SpaceX is federal
SpaceX reported $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025.Prospectus The prospectus puts the federal share at "approximately one-fifth," roughly $3.7 billion by KeyVex's math, and does not break it down by agency.Prospectus Its third-quarter report gives no newer federal share.10-Q
Federal spending records show two of its NASA awards. One is an order under NASA's Commercial Crew contract for astronaut flights to the space station. It began in 2016 with four missions, was enlarged in 2022 by three and then five more, and NASA has committed $3.5 billion to it.USAspending The other is the Human Landing System contract, for the lander in NASA's return to the moon: $3.2 billion committed since 2020.USAspending Both run into the 2030s.USAspendingUSAspending
View the data
| What | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Federal agencies' share of 2025 revenue (one year; about one-fifth by SpaceX's estimate, dollars by KeyVex's math) | $3.7B | |
| NASA Commercial Crew order, station crew flights (committed over its life so far, 2016 to now) | $3.5B | |
| NASA moon lander contract (committed over its life so far, 2020 to now) | $3.2B |
Sources: SpaceX's final prospectus (2025 revenue and the one-fifth estimate); USAspending.gov (NASA awards NNK17MA01T and 80MSFC20C0034).
Its sales have grown fast since 2025, led by its AI business. Third-quarter revenue rose to $14.6 billion from $5.6 billion a year earlier, and the AI business brought in more than half.10-Q The Space segment, which includes its launches for government agencies, brought in $1.8 billion.10-Q
Musk's bet
Elon Musk is SpaceX's chief executive and chairman, and also runs Tesla, the prospectus says.Prospectus Tesla was down 4.1% at 9:45 a.m. Eastern.KeyVex
Musk spent at least $474 million on the midterms, including $224 million in Texas, CNBC reported.CNBCTipRanks In Texas, home to SpaceX's headquarters, Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Gov. Greg Abbott, CBS News projected and CNBC reported.ProspectusCBS NewsCNBC She wants an immediate moratorium on data centers in the state, CNBC reported.CNBC Musk posted on X: "Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," according to CNBC.CNBC
Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives wrote in a note on Nov. 4 that Democrats taking control, "especially over the Senate," will "create some major hurdles" for AI and tech legislation, CNBC reported.CNBC
The other side
The prospectus also shows the other direction. It calls SpaceX "the primary launch provider for the U.S. government." In 2025 it flew 11 of 12 national-security launches and all five U.S. crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station.Prospectus
President Trump still controls the federal agencies and keeps the veto, which limits Democrats' ability to block contracts outright, TipRanks wrote.TipRanks
Spending bills passed after the new Congress takes its seats in January, including those that pay for SpaceX's government programs, need majorities in a House and Senate that Democrats control, and the president's signature, or two-thirds of both chambers to override a veto.ProspectusCBS News
What to watch
The new Congress, with Democratic majorities in both chambers, takes its seats.CBS News
Congress writes the next fiscal year's agency budgets; SpaceX says program funding is committed only as Congress makes appropriations.Prospectus
The paper trail
The SpaceX filings cited here, with the time EDGAR accepted them (Eastern).
Related coverage
Sources
9 sources, 4 of them public records
Public records
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp., final prospectus (Form 424B4)SEC EDGAR · June 12, 2026
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 22, 2026
- NASA delivery order NNK17MA01T under Commercial Crew contract NNK14MA74C (post-certification missions; originally missions 3-6, enlarged in 2022), to Space Exploration Technologies Corp.USAspending.gov · last modified Oct. 23, 2026
- NASA contract 80MSFC20C0034 to Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (Human Landing System)USAspending.gov · last modified Oct. 1, 2026
Reporting
- "2026 midterm election results as Democrats decisively win control of House and Senate"CBS News · Nov. 4, 2026
- "Midterm Election Day recap: Democrats flip Senate and House in stunning victory"CNBC · Nov. 3, 2026
- "AI data center stocks and Musk's SpaceX decline as Texas governor result raises risks of a slowdown"CNBC · Nov. 4, 2026
- "Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX (SPCX) Sink 4% as Musk's $474M Election Bet Backfires"TipRanks · Nov. 4, 2026
Data
- Daily prices for SPCX, SPY and QQQ, and the Nov. 4 intraday quotes for SPCX, TSLA and SPY (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Nov. 4, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are as traded. The Nov. 4 prices are live quotes, the IEX last sale via Tiingo at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, not closes: SPCX $137.81 against its Nov. 3 close of $141.31; TSLA $382.20 against $398.50; SPY $767.66 against $754.35. Percentages are rounded to one decimal. "Less than $3 above" the offering price: $137.81 minus $135. The Election Day rise is the Nov. 3 close of $141.31 against the Nov. 2 close of $136.37, up 3.6%. The $135 is the offering price on the prospectus cover. $201.80 (June 16) and $108.27 (Aug. 5) are the highest and lowest of SpaceX's closes from its first, June 12, through Nov. 3.
- SpaceX's 2025 revenue of $18,674 million is from the prospectus's revenue note. The prospectus says "approximately one-fifth" of 2025 revenue came from U.S. federal agencies; roughly $3.7 billion is KeyVex's math (one-fifth of $18.674 billion), not a figure SpaceX gave. The NASA amounts are total obligations on USAspending.gov as of Nov. 4, 2026: $3,549,243,793 on NNK17MA01T (period Dec. 30, 2016 to Dec. 31, 2030), a delivery order under the Commercial Crew contract NNK14MA74C, issued for post-certification crew missions 3 to 6 and enlarged by modification 23 (Feb. 28, 2022, three more missions) and modification 28 (Aug. 31, 2022, five more); its 74 transactions sum to that total. The parent contract has other orders and obligations of its own, not counted here. The moon lander figure is $3,229,285,063 on 80MSFC20C0034 (May 13, 2020 to July 29, 2033). They are obligations over each award's life, not one year's revenue, and are two examples, not a complete list of SpaceX's federal awards. The prospectus also lists an unnamed customer, Customer A, at 20.9% of 2025 revenue, across all three segments; the 10-Q puts it at 16.6% of third-quarter revenue. Neither filing says who Customer A is, so the story does not treat it as the federal share. Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $14,575 million against $5,576 million a year earlier; the SI (AI) segment brought in $7,560 million and Space $1,767 million.
- The election results, the campaign spending figures, the Texas governor's race and the quotes from Dan Ives and Elon Musk are as the named outlets reported them; KeyVex did not verify the spending figures against campaign finance filings.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines in the chart follow SPY and QQQ, as traded, rebased. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's SpaceX stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider sales, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story. The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration, not a photograph of a real launch or of a rocket in Washington. This is a reading of SpaceX's filings, federal records and news reports, not investment advice.