HSIC$86.62▲ 2.0%Henry Schein's raised forecast counts a refund its finance chief called hard to repeat
Henry Schein raised its 2026 profit forecast on Nov. 3, and the new range includes a tariff refund. Take out the refund's 19 cents a share, and the midpoint is where it was in August, by KeyVex's math.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public recordsHSIC$86.62▲ 2.0%Close, Nov. 2. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- In August, Henry Schein's 2026 profit forecast left out any future tariff refunds. In November it included a 19-cent-a-share refund booked in the third quarter, and the forecast's midpoint rose by the same 19 cents.
- Take the refund out and the midpoint is $5.34, where it was in August, by KeyVex's math. The company says better results and fourth-quarter spending are also in the new range, without sizing either.
- The refund repays tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February. The finance chief called it "difficult to repeat." It stays in adjusted earnings, and the company also reported a figure without it.
- On the call, analysts at four firms asked whether to count the refund as a one-time gain. The company said it would take that into consideration in its 2027 forecast.
The forecast: Henry Schein, the dental and medical supplies distributor, raised its 2026 forecast for adjusted earnings to $5.50 to $5.56 a share before the market opened on Nov. 3.8-K Adjusted earnings is its profit measure that leaves out items such as restructuring costs.8-K In August it had forecast $5.29 to $5.39.8-K The midpoint rose 19 cents, from $5.34 to $5.53, by KeyVex's math.
The refund: In the third quarter, the company booked a net benefit of 19 cents a share from refunds of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.8-K On Feb. 20 the Supreme Court held that the law does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.Opinion The August forecast, in its words, did not include "any future benefits from tariff refunds."8-K The new one includes the refund.8-K
Why it matters: Take the refund out of the November midpoint and $5.34 is left, the same as in August, by KeyVex's math. The company says the new range also reflects better underlying results and "targeted and limited" spending in the fourth quarter, without saying how much each adds or takes away.8-K The company kept the refund inside adjusted earnings and also published a figure without it.8-K Its finance chief, Ron South, called the refund "the type of benefit that is difficult to repeat period to period."Call
Henry Schein's stock and the refund's key datesDaily close, Oct. 1, 2025 to Nov. 2, 2026 ▲ 32.0%Show chartHide chart
- 1Nov. 4, 2025 Third-quarter 2025 results. Adjusted earnings of $1.38 a share included a $0.23 gain from revaluing investments.
- 2Feb. 20, 2026 The Supreme Court strikes down the emergency tariffs. It held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.
- 3Aug. 4, 2026 Henry Schein raises its forecast to $5.29 to $5.39. The forecast does not include any future benefits from tariff refunds, the company said.
- 4Nov. 2, 2026 Last close before the third-quarter results. $86.62. On Nov. 3 the company raised its forecast to $5.50 to $5.56, refund included.
View the data (274 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | $86.62 | +2.0% |
| 2026-10-30 | $84.88 | −1.8% |
| 2026-10-29 | $86.44 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-28 | $84.96 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-27 | $84.25 | −0.3% |
| 2026-10-26 | $84.51 | −0.5% |
| 2026-10-23 | $84.96 | −1.2% |
| 2026-10-22 | $86.00 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-21 | $85.01 | +0.4% |
| 2026-10-20 | $84.68 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-19 | $83.97 | −2.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | $86.38 | −0.7% |
| 2026-10-15 | $86.99 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-14 | $85.56 | +0.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | $85.03 | +0.9% |
| 2026-10-12 | $84.23 | +0.3% |
| 2026-10-09 | $84.01 | −0.7% |
| 2026-10-08 | $84.63 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-07 | $83.66 | −1.4% |
| 2026-10-06 | $84.84 | +0.7% |
| 2026-10-05 | $84.23 | −0.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | $84.88 | −0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | $84.93 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | $83.97 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | $84.97 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-28 | $85.99 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-25 | $86.37 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | $85.53 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-23 | $85.05 | −2.7% |
| 2026-09-22 | $87.43 | +2.6% |
| 2026-09-21 | $85.20 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-18 | $84.84 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-17 | $85.04 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-16 | $86.77 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-15 | $87.52 | −1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | $88.93 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-11 | $88.36 | +1.2% |
| 2026-09-10 | $87.30 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-09 | $87.97 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | $88.86 | −1.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | $89.81 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | $90.86 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-02 | $90.39 | +2.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | $88.52 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-31 | $89.80 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-28 | $89.52 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-27 | $90.28 | −0.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | $90.38 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-25 | $89.65 | +0.2% |
| 2026-08-24 | $89.51 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | $88.50 | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-20 | $88.46 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-19 | $89.29 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | $89.23 | −0.3% |
| 2026-08-17 | $89.52 | −0.3% |
| 2026-08-14 | $89.77 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-13 | $90.12 | −0.7% |
| 2026-08-12 | $90.74 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-11 | $89.18 | +1.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | $88.08 | −0.1% |
| 2026-08-07 | $88.13 | −0.1% |
| 2026-08-06 | $88.23 | −1.5% |
| 2026-08-05 | $89.59 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-04 | $89.11 | +3.0% |
| 2026-08-03 | $86.51 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07-31 | $85.75 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-30 | $85.17 | −0.8% |
| 2026-07-29 | $85.83 | +0.1% |
| 2026-07-28 | $85.71 | +1.3% |
| 2026-07-27 | $84.61 | −1.0% |
| 2026-07-24 | $85.47 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07-23 | $84.53 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-22 | $84.81 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | $85.86 | −0.4% |
| 2026-07-20 | $86.20 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-17 | $87.82 | −0.5% |
| 2026-07-16 | $88.26 | +1.3% |
| 2026-07-15 | $87.16 | +0.3% |
| 2026-07-14 | $86.91 | +1.3% |
| 2026-07-13 | $85.79 | +1.6% |
| 2026-07-10 | $84.40 | +0.6% |
| 2026-07-09 | $83.86 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07-08 | $83.22 | −4.2% |
| 2026-07-07 | $86.84 | +0.3% |
| 2026-07-06 | $86.62 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-02 | $86.43 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-01 | $84.52 | +1.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | $83.52 | −0.9% |
| 2026-06-29 | $84.29 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-26 | $84.95 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-25 | $83.69 | +1.1% |
| 2026-06-24 | $82.82 | +3.4% |
| 2026-06-23 | $80.10 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-22 | $78.67 | −1.6% |
| 2026-06-18 | $79.92 | −0.1% |
| 2026-06-17 | $79.97 | −1.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | $81.21 | +0.1% |
| 2026-06-15 | $81.09 | −0.2% |
| 2026-06-12 | $81.25 | +1.3% |
| 2026-06-11 | $80.22 | +1.7% |
| 2026-06-10 | $78.85 | −1.5% |
| 2026-06-09 | $80.03 | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | $78.05 | +0.8% |
| 2026-06-05 | $77.45 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-04 | $76.30 | +0.7% |
| 2026-06-03 | $75.74 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-02 | $76.04 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-01 | $76.40 | −0.2% |
| 2026-05-29 | $76.58 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-28 | $76.32 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-27 | $75.67 | +2.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | $73.90 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-22 | $74.21 | +1.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | $73.50 | +0.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | $73.23 | +0.4% |
| 2026-05-19 | $72.92 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | $72.69 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-15 | $72.72 | +0.2% |
| 2026-05-14 | $72.61 | +4.6% |
| 2026-05-13 | $69.45 | +0.1% |
| 2026-05-12 | $69.35 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-11 | $68.99 | −2.6% |
| 2026-05-08 | $70.82 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-07 | $70.50 | −2.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | $72.44 | −2.6% |
| 2026-05-05 | $74.37 | +3.3% |
| 2026-05-04 | $72.02 | −2.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | $73.93 | −0.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $74.59 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $73.80 | −3.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $76.12 | −1.4% |
| 2026-04-27 | $77.20 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-24 | $77.54 | −0.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | $78.22 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | $78.11 | −0.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | $78.84 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-20 | $79.15 | +0.4% |
| 2026-04-17 | $78.83 | +2.1% |
| 2026-04-16 | $77.21 | −0.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | $77.42 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | $77.20 | +1.6% |
| 2026-04-13 | $75.99 | +0.9% |
| 2026-04-10 | $75.34 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-09 | $75.62 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-08 | $75.53 | +2.3% |
| 2026-04-07 | $73.85 | −1.3% |
| 2026-04-06 | $74.86 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-02 | $73.94 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-01 | $73.04 | −0.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | $73.70 | +1.4% |
| 2026-03-30 | $72.70 | +0.8% |
| 2026-03-27 | $72.10 | −2.2% |
| 2026-03-26 | $73.71 | −0.7% |
| 2026-03-25 | $74.25 | +0.3% |
| 2026-03-24 | $74.02 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-23 | $74.46 | +3.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | $72.29 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-19 | $72.68 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-18 | $73.12 | −2.3% |
| 2026-03-17 | $74.87 | +0.3% |
| 2026-03-16 | $74.61 | −1.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | $75.57 | +0.8% |
| 2026-03-12 | $74.97 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-11 | $76.50 | +0.3% |
| 2026-03-10 | $76.29 | −2.3% |
| 2026-03-09 | $78.10 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-06 | $77.60 | −3.2% |
| 2026-03-05 | $80.17 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-04 | $80.58 | +0.5% |
| 2026-03-03 | $80.21 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-02 | $81.37 | −1.2% |
| 2026-02-27 | $82.39 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | $81.47 | −0.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | $81.91 | −1.7% |
| 2026-02-24 | $83.35 | +3.5% |
| 2026-02-23 | $80.57 | +1.3% |
| 2026-02-20 | $79.57 | +3.6% |
| 2026-02-19 | $76.80 | −1.6% |
| 2026-02-18 | $78.03 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $77.21 | −1.3% |
| 2026-02-13 | $78.19 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $78.43 | −4.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | $81.69 | +0.8% |
| 2026-02-10 | $81.02 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-09 | $80.10 | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-06 | $79.72 | +3.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | $77.00 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-04 | $75.26 | +2.9% |
| 2026-02-03 | $73.14 | −2.9% |
| 2026-02-02 | $75.31 | −0.2% |
| 2026-01-30 | $75.48 | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-29 | $74.34 | −1.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $75.08 | −2.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $76.87 | −0.9% |
| 2026-01-26 | $77.59 | +0.5% |
| 2026-01-23 | $77.21 | −1.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | $78.47 | −0.6% |
| 2026-01-21 | $78.94 | +1.6% |
| 2026-01-20 | $77.73 | −2.8% |
| 2026-01-16 | $79.98 | +2.4% |
| 2026-01-15 | $78.08 | +2.4% |
| 2026-01-14 | $76.26 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-13 | $75.82 | −0.4% |
| 2026-01-12 | $76.13 | −1.9% |
| 2026-01-09 | $77.64 | −1.7% |
| 2026-01-08 | $79.00 | +1.1% |
| 2026-01-07 | $78.14 | −0.5% |
| 2026-01-06 | $78.55 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-05 | $78.54 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-02 | $76.82 | +1.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | $75.58 | −1.1% |
| 2025-12-30 | $76.44 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | $76.44 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | $76.13 | −0.1% |
| 2025-12-24 | $76.19 | −0.4% |
| 2025-12-23 | $76.50 | −1.4% |
| 2025-12-22 | $77.58 | +0.3% |
| 2025-12-19 | $77.35 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-18 | $77.02 | +0.5% |
| 2025-12-17 | $76.61 | −0.6% |
| 2025-12-16 | $77.05 | −0.4% |
| 2025-12-15 | $77.39 | +1.1% |
| 2025-12-12 | $76.55 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-11 | $76.24 | +0.5% |
| 2025-12-10 | $75.88 | +1.9% |
| 2025-12-09 | $74.44 | +2.2% |
| 2025-12-08 | $72.86 | −1.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | $73.62 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-04 | $73.34 | +0.6% |
| 2025-12-03 | $72.88 | +1.7% |
| 2025-12-02 | $71.67 | −2.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $73.11 | −2.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $74.57 | −0.9% |
| 2025-11-26 | $75.25 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-25 | $75.50 | +1.4% |
| 2025-11-24 | $74.46 | +1.4% |
| 2025-11-21 | $73.40 | +3.1% |
| 2025-11-20 | $71.18 | +0.8% |
| 2025-11-19 | $70.60 | −0.8% |
| 2025-11-18 | $71.20 | −0.1% |
| 2025-11-17 | $71.25 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-14 | $71.43 | −2.6% |
| 2025-11-13 | $73.34 | +0.7% |
| 2025-11-12 | $72.84 | −0.5% |
| 2025-11-11 | $73.22 | +0.3% |
| 2025-11-10 | $73.00 | +1.5% |
| 2025-11-07 | $71.90 | +2.6% |
| 2025-11-06 | $70.06 | −2.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $72.01 | +0.6% |
| 2025-11-04 | $71.61 | +10.8% |
| 2025-11-03 | $64.64 | +2.3% |
| 2025-10-31 | $63.20 | +0.5% |
| 2025-10-30 | $62.90 | +0.9% |
| 2025-10-29 | $62.32 | −1.4% |
| 2025-10-28 | $63.21 | −0.5% |
| 2025-10-27 | $63.54 | −0.5% |
| 2025-10-24 | $63.84 | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-23 | $63.59 | +0.1% |
| 2025-10-22 | $63.51 | −1.1% |
| 2025-10-21 | $64.23 | +0.5% |
| 2025-10-20 | $63.93 | +1.5% |
| 2025-10-17 | $62.98 | +1.5% |
| 2025-10-16 | $62.03 | −1.9% |
| 2025-10-15 | $63.25 | −0.2% |
| 2025-10-14 | $63.39 | +0.6% |
| 2025-10-13 | $63.00 | −0.3% |
| 2025-10-10 | $63.17 | −2.2% |
| 2025-10-09 | $64.57 | −0.2% |
| 2025-10-08 | $64.73 | −0.2% |
| 2025-10-07 | $64.88 | −1.8% |
| 2025-10-06 | $66.04 | −1.5% |
| 2025-10-03 | $67.03 | +1.5% |
| 2025-10-02 | $66.03 | +0.7% |
| 2025-10-01 | $65.60 |
Through the Nov. 2 close of $86.62; the Nov. 3 close was not yet in KeyVex's data when this story was written. At 1:16 p.m. on Nov. 3 the stock traded at $82.96, down 4.2%.PriceChart data Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
What the quarter looks like with and without it
The refund lowered Henry Schein's cost of goods sold by about $28 million in the quarter, South said on the call.Call
The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.56 a share for the quarter, up from $1.38 a year earlier. Each figure includes one item the company singles out: this year the 19-cent refund, last year a 23-cent gain from revaluing investments it already held.8-K
Take both out and the company earned $1.37 a share, up 19.1% from $1.15, it said. Chief Executive Fred Lowery pointed to that 19% growth, and to 8.6% growth in U.S. dental supply sales, which the company said came mainly from volume from market share gains.8-K
View the data
| Aug. 4 | Nov. 3 | |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast range | $5.29 to $5.39 | $5.50 to $5.56 |
| Midpoint | $5.34 | $5.53 |
| Midpoint less the $0.19 refund | $5.34 | $5.34 |
The November range includes the refund booked in the third quarter; the August range did not include any future refunds. Sources: Henry Schein 8-Ks, Aug. 4 and Nov. 3, 2026.
South gave two reasons on the call for keeping the refund in adjusted earnings: most of the industry does not adjust for it, and the company did not adjust the tariffs out when it paid them.Call
What the analysts asked
Jeff Johnson of Baird said the refund "helped by $0.19 this quarter." He asked whether the company's goal of double-digit earnings growth next year should be read on a basis without the refund.Call Jon Block of Stifel went further. He asked whether to strip out the 19 cents and apply that growth to "a normalized, if you would, I do not know, $5.34 number," the same figure as the August midpoint.Call8-K Michael Petusky of Barrington Research asked a version of the same question.Call
Should we consider tariffs part of regular course of business or one time in nature?
The 2026 forecast assumes no significant further tariff refunds this year.8-K South said the company believes the business can keep growing earnings by double digits. Answering Block, he said it would "take all that into consideration" when it gives its 2027 forecast.Call South hands the finance chief's job to Emmanuel Caprais on Nov. 4, the company said on the call.Call
What to watch
Henry Schein's first 2027 forecast, where it says it will address the refund. It gave its first 2026 forecast with fourth-quarter results on Feb. 24, 2026.8-K
The paper trail
The two Henry Schein earnings releases that raised the 2026 forecast to its current range, with the time EDGAR accepted each one. The first 2026 forecast, $5.23 to $5.37, came on Feb. 24.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 4, 6:13 a.m. | 8-K | Henry Schein | Second-quarter results. Forecast raised to $5.29 to $5.39, with no future tariff refunds included. |
| Nov. 3, 8:07 a.m. | 8-K | Henry Schein | Third-quarter results. A $0.19-a-share refund benefit; forecast raised to $5.50 to $5.56, refund included. |
Sources
7 sources, 4 of them public records
Public records
- Henry Schein, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Nov. 3, 2026
- Henry Schein, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Aug. 4, 2026
- Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 (slip opinion)Supreme Court of the United States · Feb. 20, 2026
- Henry Schein, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth-quarter 2025 results and 2026 guidanceSEC EDGAR · Feb. 24, 2026
Reporting
- "Earnings call transcript: Henry Schein tops Q3 2026 profit view, shares fall"Investing.com · Nov. 3, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for HSIC, and SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo), and the Nov. 3 intraday quote (Tiingo IEX)KeyVex · through Nov. 3, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for HSICKeyVex · through Nov. 2, 2026
How we got these numbers
- The forecast midpoints are KeyVex's math: ($5.29 + $5.39) / 2 = $5.34 in August and ($5.50 + $5.56) / 2 = $5.53 in November, a rise of $0.19. The low end rose $0.21 and the high end $0.17. The red line in the forecast chart subtracts the $0.19 third-quarter refund from the November midpoint; the company does not present the forecast that way.
- Adjusted earnings are Henry Schein's non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. The refund is in both its GAAP and non-GAAP results; the $1.37 and $1.15 figures are the company's own, from Exhibit D of its Nov. 3 release.
- Remarks on the earnings call are from the transcript Investing.com published on Nov. 3, 2026.
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. The Nov. 3 price is an intraday trade at 1:16 p.m. Eastern, not a close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased. The Filings switch shows a selection of filing markers from KeyVex's Henry Schein page, not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.