INTC$92.07▼ 3.6%Intel had no insurance if war shut its Israel plant. An accident halted it instead
An accident has kept Intel's Israel plant shut about two weeks, its quarterly report says. Intel puts the hit at about $300 million of fourth-quarter sales, says some losses are insured, and sees costs into 2027.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 5 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 5 public recordsINTC$92.07▼ 3.6%Close, Oct. 29. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Every quarterly report Intel filed this year warned that a disruption at its Israel plant could significantly hurt its business. The risk named was war, which it has no business-interruption insurance against.
- Instead, an apparent gas-cylinder explosion on Oct. 14 killed two workers there, the Times of Israel reported. There were no apparent suspicions of an attack, the paper said.
- For this accident, Intel says, it has insurance that applies to certain losses. How much it recovers, and the full cost, it says it can't yet estimate.
- Intel puts the hit at about $300 million of fourth-quarter sales and 2 of the 6 gross-margin points its forecast loses. Lower sales against fixed costs explain most of that drop, its finance chief said.
- Next: Intel expected the plant to restart by the end of October, its report says. Its finance chief expects a similar sales hit in the first quarter, Calcalist and Reuters reported.
The blast: An explosion at Intel's plant in Kiryat Gat, in southern Israel, on Oct. 14 killed two workers, the Times of Israel reported.Times of Israel Intel's quarterly report, filed after the close on Oct. 29, says manufacturing there has been halted for about two weeks.10-Q
The forecast: Intel's results release that afternoon forecast fourth-quarter sales of $15 billion to $16 billion, down from $16.5 billion in the third quarter. It did not discuss the plant.8-K On its call, less than an hour later, Intel said a "tragic accident" had led to an extended shutdown at its Israel factory, and that the forecast already included the hit.Remarks Shares fell more than 20% in trading after the close, Reuters and TIKR reported.ReutersTIKR
Why it matters: Intel had warned in every quarterly report this year that a disruption at this plant could have a significant adverse impact on its business.10-Q10-Q It had no insurance for lost business if war shut the plant. A disruption has now happened, from an accident instead, and for that Intel says insurance applies to certain losses. The report says the effects on its costs and profit run through the first half of 2027.10-Q
Intel's stock and the key dates in this storyDaily close, Dec. 31, 2025 to Oct. 29, 2026 ▲ 149.5%Show chartHide chart
- 1April 23, 2026 Intel's first-quarter report warns about its Israel fab. It says a significant portion of revenue comes from products made there, and that it is not insured for business interruption from war. Filed after the close. Close: $66.78.
- 2June 22, 2026 Intel's highest close of 2026. Close: $140.94.
- 3July 23, 2026 The second-quarter report repeats the warning. Filed after the close. Close: $100.23.
- 4Oct. 14, 2026 An explosion at the Kiryat Gat plant; two workers later die of their injuries. There were no apparent suspicions of an attack or other hostile act, the Times of Israel reported. Close: $98.12.
- 5Oct. 29, 2026 Third-quarter results, then the quarterly report. The 10-Q says the plant's operations halted for about two weeks. Both came after the close. Close: $92.07.
View the data (209 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
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| 2026-10-29 | $92.07 | −3.6% |
| 2026-10-28 | $95.53 | +1.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | $93.74 | +3.6% |
| 2026-10-26 | $90.47 | +4.0% |
| 2026-10-23 | $86.96 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-22 | $85.49 | −8.0% |
| 2026-10-21 | $92.96 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-20 | $91.69 | −0.4% |
| 2026-10-19 | $92.03 | +2.4% |
| 2026-10-16 | $89.85 | −5.8% |
| 2026-10-15 | $95.37 | −2.8% |
| 2026-10-14 | $98.12 | −4.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | $102.81 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-12 | $101.35 | −3.2% |
| 2026-10-09 | $104.70 | −2.2% |
| 2026-10-08 | $107.08 | −5.3% |
| 2026-10-07 | $113.12 | +0.6% |
| 2026-10-06 | $112.50 | −3.2% |
| 2026-10-05 | $116.19 | −2.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | $119.33 | −0.6% |
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| 2026-09-30 | $120.23 | +3.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | $115.93 | −0.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | $116.03 | −5.7% |
| 2026-09-25 | $123.00 | −3.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | $127.39 | +3.9% |
| 2026-09-23 | $122.60 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-22 | $123.86 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-21 | $121.78 | +12.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | $108.60 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-17 | $108.80 | +7.7% |
| 2026-09-16 | $101.05 | +4.0% |
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| 2026-01-09 | $45.55 | +10.8% |
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| 2026-01-07 | $42.63 | +6.5% |
| 2026-01-06 | $40.04 | +1.7% |
| 2026-01-05 | $39.37 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $39.38 | +6.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | $36.90 |
Intel closed at $36.90 on Dec. 31, 2025, and at $92.07 on Oct. 29, before its results.Chart data Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
What it costs, and for how long
The forecast includes "roughly $300m" of lost sales and 200 basis points, or 2 percentage points, of gross margin from Fab 28, its Kiryat Gat plant, based on an early assessment, chief financial officer David Zinsner said in his prepared remarks. Almost all of that sales hit is server chips, he said.RemarksCalcalist
He expects a sales hit of a similar size in the first quarter, Calcalist, an Israeli business outlet, and Reuters reported.CalcalistReuters
In addition, we expect the reduced production volumes and operating inefficiencies during the stoppage and restoration period to adversely affect manufacturing costs, gross profit and operating results in Q4 2026 and through the first half of 2027.
The filing also lists charges to come in the fourth quarter: scrapped inventory, cleanup, and the cost of idle factory capacity.10-Q
Intel is weighing what it can recover under its policy for the accident. Against war, all three of this year's quarterly reports say, its plant and equipment in Israel are self-insured, meaning Intel bears those losses itself.10-Q10-Q
The bigger part of the drop
By Intel's own figures, the plant accounts for about $300 million of the roughly $1 billion drop in sales at the forecast's midpoint. Gross margin, the share of sales left after the cost of making them, is forecast at 38% for the fourth quarter, down from 44.1%. Both figures leave out some costs under Intel's own non-GAAP measure.8-K
View the data
| Intel's gross margin (non-GAAP) | Gross margin | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Third quarter, actual (July to September) | 44.1% | Non-GAAP gross margin, 44.1% |
| Fourth-quarter forecast, before the plant (38% plus Intel's 2-point estimate) | 40.0% | KeyVex's math: the 38% forecast plus the roughly 200 basis points Intel attributes to Fab 28 |
| Fourth-quarter forecast (At the $15.5 billion midpoint) | 38.0% | Non-GAAP gross margin forecast, 38% |
The middle bar is KeyVex's math: Intel's 38% forecast plus the roughly 200 basis points it attributes to Fab 28. Sources: Intel's third-quarter results release and its prepared remarks for the Oct. 29 call.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said on the call that the margin forecast would have been 40% without the plant, and Zinsner did not dispute it, Calcalist reported. The margin hit "is going to be really more of a Q4 event," Zinsner said.Calcalist
The margin falls mainly because overall sales are lower against Intel's fixed factory costs as it cuts PC chip production, Zinsner said. He expects sales of PC chips to fall more than 20% from the third quarter.Remarks
What Intel had warned about
In late March, Iran listed US companies with Middle East operations whose facilities it indicated it would target, with Intel "near the top," Intel's first-quarter report says.10-Q By July, its report said "a significant portion of our current and anticipated future revenues" came from products made at its Israel fab.10-Q
The blast was apparently caused by an exploding gas cylinder, the Times of Israel reported. A third worker was hospitalized in serious condition, and there were no apparent suspicions of an attack or other hostile act, the paper said. Intel said then that it was "deeply saddened by the loss of two workers."Times of Israel
Intel's report says it cannot yet reasonably estimate what the shutdown will cost in all, or what its insurance will pay.10-Q
What to watch
Intel's expected restart of the Kiryat Gat plant, per its 10-Q.
Charges for scrapped inventory, cleanup and idle capacity, and about $300 million of lost sales, per Intel.
A sales hit of similar size, Zinsner said, according to Calcalist and Reuters.
Higher manufacturing costs and lower profit from the shutdown, per the 10-Q.
The paper trail
Intel's filings and statements on the Israel plant, April 23 through Oct. 29, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each filing.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 23, 6:49 p.m. | 10-Q | Intel | Iran lists Intel near the top of its targets. A significant portion of revenue comes from products made in Israel. No war business-interruption insurance. |
| July 23, 6:44 p.m. | 10-Q | Intel | The same warning. |
| Oct. 29, 4:08 p.m. | 8-K | Intel | Third-quarter results and fourth-quarter forecast. The release does not discuss the plant; the forecast includes its impact, per the call. |
| Oct. 29, call at 5 p.m. | Remarks | Intel | About $300 million of fourth-quarter sales and 2 points of gross margin from Fab 28. |
| Oct. 29, 6:50 p.m. | 10-Q | Intel | Operations halted about two weeks; costs through the first half of 2027; impact not yet estimable. |
Sources
11 sources, 5 of them public records
Public records
- Intel Corp., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 26, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 29, 2026
- Intel Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 29, 2026
- Intel Corp., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2026SEC EDGAR · July 23, 2026
- Intel Corp., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 28, 2026SEC EDGAR · April 23, 2026
- Intel CEO/CFO prepared remarks, third-quarter 2026 earnings callIntel Corp. · Oct. 29, 2026
Reporting
- "Second worker dies of wounds sustained in Intel plant blast in southern Israel"The Times of Israel · Oct. 15, 2026
- "Intel's $600 million question: How the Kiryat Gat explosion hit its forecast"Calcalist · Oct. 30, 2026
- "Intel shares plunge 20% as it signals slower growth amid PC market under pressure" (Reuters, as published)The Globe and Mail · Oct. 29, 2026
- "Intel Stock Sank More Than 20% on Its Q4 Guide"TIKR · Oct. 30, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for INTC, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 29, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for INTCKeyVex · through Oct. 29, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. The chart ends at the Oct. 29 close, before Intel's results; trading on Oct. 30 is not in it. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Intel's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Intel stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider sales, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Gross margin figures are Intel's non-GAAP measures. The "before the plant" figure adds the roughly 200 basis points Intel attributes to Fab 28 to its 38% forecast; that sum is KeyVex's math, and it matches the 40% Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon put to Intel on the call, as Calcalist reported.
- Filing times are the "Accepted" times on each filing's EDGAR index page, Eastern time. Intel's call began at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern, per its prepared remarks.
- The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration, not a photograph of the plant.