COUR$3.75▼ 3.8%Coursera closed at a record low. A 10% holder then bought $31.5 million more
Coursera's forecast came in below analysts' estimates, StockStory reported. Its filings show its buybacks since May have also made Pale Fire Capital's stake a bigger slice of the company. The Prague firm keeps buying.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 8 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 8 public recordsCOUR$3.75▼ 3.8%Close, Nov. 5. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Analysts expected about $372 million of fourth-quarter revenue, StockStory reported. Coursera forecast $358 million to $366 million. The next day its stock closed at $3.47, its lowest since it began trading in 2021.
- In a buyback, a company pays cash for its own shares and retires them. Coursera has spent $225.5 million that way since May, by KeyVex's math from its filings.
- Fewer shares means each remaining holder owns a bigger slice. Pale Fire Capital, which bought 8.4 million more shares on Nov. 3 to 5, now owns about 14.7%, by KeyVex's math.
- Pale Fire files as a passive investor under an SEC rule that applies only below 20%. At 20% it would have five business days to file the longer Schedule 13D.
The forecast: On Oct. 29, after the market closed, Coursera, the online-learning company that merged with Udemy in May, forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $358 million to $366 million.8-K Analysts had expected about $372 million, StockStory reported.StockStory The next day the stock closed down 25.5% at $3.47, its lowest close since it began trading in March 2021, a record low.Chart data
The buyers: Two buyers show up in the filings since September. Coursera bought back 7.1 million of its own shares from Oct. 1 to Nov. 4, its quarterly report filed Nov. 5 shows. The report does not say how many came after the forecast.10-Q Pale Fire Capital, a Prague-based investment firm that owns more than 10%, bought 8.4 million shares on Nov. 3 to 5 for about $31.5 million. Its filing does not mark those purchases as made under a trading plan.Form 4
Why it matters: Each share Coursera retires makes Pale Fire's stake a bigger slice of the company, without Pale Fire buying another share. Coursera spent $101.6 million on buybacks in the third quarter, from cash on hand, it says.10-Q Its free cash flow, a measure the company defines itself, was $4.6 million. That was after $27.7 million of cash payments tied to the Udemy merger, by KeyVex's math from the company's figures.8-K
The company: Coursera's board approved a $500 million buyback on May 15, four days after the Udemy deal closed.10-Q Through Nov. 4, it had spent $225.5 million, commissions included, to retire 41.7 million shares, by KeyVex's math. It held $775.5 million of cash and marketable securities on Sept. 30.8-K Announcing the program on May 18, Coursera said its size "underscores the confidence of Coursera's leadership in the execution of its strategy."8-K Pale Fire has not said in its filings why it is buying.
Coursera's stock and the story's key datesDaily close, March 2 to Nov. 5, 2026 ▼ 41.4%Show chartHide chart
- 1March 3, 2026 Pale Fire Capital reports a 5.8% stake. 9.7 million shares, in a passive ownership filing made March 10.
- 2May 11, 2026 Coursera completes its merger with Udemy. It issues 116.6 million new shares to Udemy's holders.
- 3May 15, 2026 Coursera's board approves a $500 million buyback. The program has no expiration date.
- 4Sept. 29, 2026 Pale Fire reports 10.9%. 28.8 million shares after buying on Sept. 25 and 29.
- 5Oct. 30, 2026 First trading day after the forecast. Coursera closes down 25.5% at $3.47, its lowest close since it began trading in 2021.
- 6Nov. 5, 2026 Pale Fire's latest purchases are filed. 8.4 million shares bought Nov. 3 to 5. Coursera closes at $3.75.
View the data (174 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | $3.75 | −3.8% |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.90 | +5.1% |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.71 | −2.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.79 | +9.2% |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.47 | −25.5% |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.66 | −0.9% |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.70 | −1.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.75 | −4.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.97 | −2.2% |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.08 | +0.2% |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.07 | +2.0% |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.97 | −2.0% |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.07 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.00 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.94 | −2.9% |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.09 | +5.2% |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.84 | −2.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.97 | −2.0% |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.07 | −1.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.16 | −2.1% |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.27 | +3.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.11 | −0.2% |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.12 | −1.2% |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.18 | +3.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.02 | −1.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.08 | +2.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.96 | +6.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.67 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.64 | −8.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.05 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.06 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.12 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.14 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.16 | +2.4% |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.04 | −2.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.15 | −1.7% |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.24 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.28 | −2.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.42 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.22 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.23 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.30 | −4.8% |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.57 | −4.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.80 | −3.5% |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.01 | −1.6% |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.11 | −1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.18 | −5.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.52 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.47 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.39 | +5.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.06 | −2.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.19 | +2.8% |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.02 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.00 | +2.6% |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.85 | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.85 | +2.8% |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.69 | +2.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.54 | −4.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.78 | −0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.80 | +3.9% |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.58 | −1.9% |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.69 | −1.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.76 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.81 | +4.5% |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.56 | −4.3% |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.81 | −4.8% |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.10 | +3.4% |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.90 | +11.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.31 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.27 | −14.7% |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.18 | +5.6% |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.85 | +3.9% |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.63 | +4.8% |
| 2026-07-24 | $5.37 | −0.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | $5.38 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-22 | $5.34 | −0.4% |
| 2026-07-21 | $5.36 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-20 | $5.46 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-17 | $5.56 | −1.4% |
| 2026-07-16 | $5.64 | +1.4% |
| 2026-07-15 | $5.56 | −2.6% |
| 2026-07-14 | $5.71 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-13 | $5.67 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-10 | $5.71 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | $5.67 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-08 | $5.74 | −1.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | $5.80 | −2.2% |
| 2026-07-06 | $5.93 | +0.5% |
| 2026-07-02 | $5.90 | −1.3% |
| 2026-07-01 | $5.98 | +6.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | $5.64 | −0.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | $5.68 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | $5.74 | −0.3% |
| 2026-06-25 | $5.76 | −5.4% |
| 2026-06-24 | $6.09 | +12.6% |
| 2026-06-23 | $5.41 | +1.9% |
| 2026-06-22 | $5.31 | −0.7% |
| 2026-06-18 | $5.35 | +0.9% |
| 2026-06-17 | $5.30 | −0.6% |
| 2026-06-16 | $5.33 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-15 | $5.30 | −0.7% |
| 2026-06-12 | $5.34 | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-11 | $5.33 | −0.2% |
| 2026-06-10 | $5.34 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-09 | $5.34 | +0.9% |
| 2026-06-08 | $5.29 | −3.3% |
| 2026-06-05 | $5.47 | −1.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | $5.57 | +4.5% |
| 2026-06-03 | $5.33 | −3.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | $5.54 | −4.5% |
| 2026-06-01 | $5.80 | +7.6% |
| 2026-05-29 | $5.39 | +1.5% |
| 2026-05-28 | $5.31 | −0.2% |
| 2026-05-27 | $5.32 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | $5.29 | −0.6% |
| 2026-05-22 | $5.32 | +1.5% |
| 2026-05-21 | $5.24 | −0.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | $5.25 | −2.8% |
| 2026-05-19 | $5.40 | −5.8% |
| 2026-05-18 | $5.73 | +8.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | $5.28 | +3.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | $5.09 | −4.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | $5.31 | −7.5% |
| 2026-05-12 | $5.74 | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-11 | $5.66 | −2.1% |
| 2026-05-08 | $5.78 | −7.8% |
| 2026-05-07 | $6.27 | +4.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | $6.03 | +1.7% |
| 2026-05-05 | $5.93 | +1.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | $5.83 | −5.2% |
| 2026-05-01 | $6.15 | +3.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | $5.95 | −2.6% |
| 2026-04-29 | $6.11 | −5.9% |
| 2026-04-28 | $6.49 | +11.7% |
| 2026-04-27 | $5.81 | +10.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | $5.28 | −11.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | $5.97 | −3.4% |
| 2026-04-22 | $6.18 | −2.7% |
| 2026-04-21 | $6.35 | −3.1% |
| 2026-04-20 | $6.55 | +3.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | $6.36 | −1.1% |
| 2026-04-16 | $6.43 | +4.6% |
| 2026-04-15 | $6.15 | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-14 | $5.94 | +3.3% |
| 2026-04-13 | $5.75 | +7.3% |
| 2026-04-10 | $5.36 | −4.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | $5.60 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-08 | $5.53 | −8.4% |
| 2026-04-07 | $6.04 | +0.5% |
| 2026-04-06 | $6.01 | +1.7% |
| 2026-04-02 | $5.91 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-01 | $5.85 | +0.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $5.82 | +1.6% |
| 2026-03-30 | $5.73 | +4.0% |
| 2026-03-27 | $5.51 | −5.7% |
| 2026-03-26 | $5.84 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-25 | $5.87 | +3.2% |
| 2026-03-24 | $5.69 | −4.8% |
| 2026-03-23 | $5.98 | +2.4% |
| 2026-03-20 | $5.84 | −3.3% |
| 2026-03-19 | $6.04 | +3.1% |
| 2026-03-18 | $5.86 | −3.5% |
| 2026-03-17 | $6.07 | +0.2% |
| 2026-03-16 | $6.06 | +0.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | $6.04 | +1.5% |
| 2026-03-12 | $5.95 | −2.1% |
| 2026-03-11 | $6.08 | +0.7% |
| 2026-03-10 | $6.04 | −1.8% |
| 2026-03-09 | $6.15 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | $6.16 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-05 | $6.17 | −5.5% |
| 2026-03-04 | $6.53 | +5.2% |
| 2026-03-03 | $6.21 | −3.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $6.40 |
Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex. Last close Nov. 5, 2026.
What Coursera said about 2027
With its results, Coursera gave an early look at 2027: revenue in its Enterprise segment flat to modestly lower, and a low double-digit decline in its Consumer segment, TIKR reported. Goldesel reported the same outlook.TIKRGoldesel
KeyBanc called that view "meaningfully lower" as it lowered its rating to Sector Weight from Overweight, TIKR reported.TIKR JPMorgan lowered its rating to Neutral from Overweight on Oct. 30, Goldesel reported.Goldesel
What each buyer paid
In the third quarter, Coursera bought under a trading plan, which sets purchases in advance.10-Q It paid an average of $5.65 a share in July, $5.90 in August and $5.27 in September, or $5.59 for the quarter.10-Q From Oct. 1 to Nov. 4 it paid about $4.73, by KeyVex's math.10-Q
Pale Fire paid about $4.87 a share for 2.3 million shares on Sept. 25 and 29, and about $3.76 on Nov. 3 to 5, by KeyVex's math from its filings.Form 4Form 4
Coursera's own risk section says the program "may not enhance long-term stockholder value" even if fully carried out.10-Q
View the data
| Buyer | Average price a share | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Coursera buybacks (May 15 to June 30) | $5.47 | KeyVex's math, including commissions: $90.3 million for 16.5 million shares, the nine-month total less the third quarter, 10-Q |
| Coursera buybacks (July) | $5.65 | 10.6 million shares, 10-Q |
| Coursera buybacks (August) | $5.90 | 2.8 million shares, 10-Q |
| Coursera buybacks (September) | $5.27 | 4.7 million shares, 10-Q |
| Coursera buybacks (Oct. 1 to Nov. 4) | $4.73 | KeyVex's math, including commissions: $33.6 million for 7.1 million shares, 10-Q |
| Pale Fire Capital (Sept. 25 and 29) | $4.87 | KeyVex's math: 2,332,742 shares at weighted averages of $5.0639 and $4.6062, Form 4 |
| Pale Fire Capital (Nov. 3 to 5) | $3.76 | KeyVex's math: 8,355,251 shares for about $31.5 million, Form 4 |
Sources: Coursera 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026; Pale Fire Capital Form 4s filed Sept. 29 and Nov. 5, 2026. The May-June, October and Pale Fire averages are KeyVex's math from those filings.
How Pale Fire's stake grew
Pale Fire first reported a stake of 9.7 million shares, 5.8% of Coursera, as of March 3.13G By Sept. 29 it held 28.8 million, which its filing put at 10.9% using July's share count.13G/AForm 4 On Coursera's Oct. 29 count of 253.3 million shares, the same holding was 11.4%, by KeyVex's math.10-Q
The difference is the shrinking share count. The Form 4 filed Nov. 5, which owners of more than 10% must file after most trades, shows 37.2 million shares.Form 4 That is about 14.7% of the Oct. 29 count, by KeyVex's math.
Pale Fire files its stake on Schedule 13G, the short form for passive investors. In it, the firm certifies the shares are not held to change or influence control of Coursera.13G/A
Pale Fire Capital's Coursera shares, filing by filingShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Date | Shares held | Note |
|---|---|---|
| March 3 | 9.7M shares | Schedule 13G, 5.8% of 168.2 million shares |
| Sept. 25 | 27.8M shares | Form 4 |
| Sept. 29 | 28.8M shares | Form 4; 10.9% of 264.4 million shares in the Schedule 13G/A |
| Nov. 3 | 31.3M shares | Form 4 |
| Nov. 4 | 34.0M shares | Form 4 |
| Nov. 5 | 37.2M shares | Form 4; about 14.7% of the 253.3 million shares outstanding on Oct. 29, by KeyVex's math |
Sources: Pale Fire Capital Schedule 13G (March 10) and 13G/A (Sept. 29); Form 4s filed Sept. 29 and Nov. 5, 2026. The 14.7% is KeyVex's math on 253.3 million shares outstanding as of Oct. 29.
The 20% line
The passive form has a ceiling. Under SEC rules, an investor like Pale Fire may use it only while it owns less than 20% of the stock. One that reaches 20% has five business days to file the longer Schedule 13D, the form for stakes that are not passive. Until 10 days after that filing, it may not vote those shares or buy more.SEC rule
Coursera's program can keep shrinking the count. It had $308.6 million left on Sept. 30.10-Q After its October buying, about $275.1 million remained, by KeyVex's math.
At about 14.7%, Pale Fire is more than five points from that line. In its filings, it has certified that it does not hold the shares to change or influence control.13G/A The program does not require Coursera to buy any more shares.10-Q
Also in the filings
These filings are not tied to the buyback or to Pale Fire's purchases. Chief executive Greg Hart sold 10,305 shares at $3.59 on Nov. 2, about $37,000, under a trading plan he adopted on March 2, his Form 4 shows.Form 4 General counsel Alan Cardenas adopted a trading plan on Sept. 15 to sell up to 58,057 shares, the 10-Q says.10-Q
The paper trail
Filings cited, March 10 through Nov. 5, 2026 (accepted times, Eastern)
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 10, 7:40 p.m. | 13G | Pale Fire Capital | 9,704,521 shares, 5.8%, as of March 3. Passive filing. |
| Sept. 29, 5:24 p.m. | 13G/A | Pale Fire Capital | 28,806,415 shares, 10.9% of 264.4 million. |
| Sept. 29, 5:26 p.m. | 4 | Pale Fire Capital | Bought 1,332,742 shares at $5.0639 on Sept. 25 and 1,000,000 at $4.6062 on Sept. 29. |
| Oct. 29, 4:11 p.m. | 8-K | Coursera | Third-quarter results and the fourth-quarter forecast. |
| Nov. 3, 5:05 p.m. | 4 | Greg Hart | Sold 10,305 shares at $3.59 on Nov. 2 under a plan adopted March 2. |
| Nov. 5, 4:15 p.m. | 10-Q | Coursera | Buybacks by month; 7.1 million shares retired Oct. 1 to Nov. 4. |
| Nov. 5, 5:26 p.m. | 4 | Pale Fire Capital | Bought 2,526,702 shares at $3.7209, 2,698,400 at $3.8537 and 3,130,149 at $3.7220 on Nov. 3, 4 and 5. |
What to watch
The fourth quarter ends. Coursera forecast revenue of $358 million to $366 million for it.
Coursera filed its 2025 annual report on Feb. 23, 2026. The next one is the first to include Udemy.
As an owner of more than 10%, Pale Fire must file a Form 4 within two business days of most trades.
Sources
13 sources, 8 of them public records
Public records
- Coursera Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Nov. 5, 2026
- Coursera Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 29, 2026
- Form 4, Pale Fire Capital SE and related reporting personsSEC EDGAR · Nov. 5, 2026
- Form 4, Pale Fire Capital SE and related reporting personsSEC EDGAR · Sept. 29, 2026
- Schedule 13G/A, Pale Fire Capital SICAV a.s. and related reporting personsSEC EDGAR · Sept. 29, 2026
- Schedule 13G, Pale Fire Capital SICAV a.s. and related reporting personsSEC EDGAR · March 10, 2026
- Coursera Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: share repurchase programSEC EDGAR · May 18, 2026
- Form 4, Gregory M. HartSEC EDGAR · Nov. 3, 2026
Rules and references
- 17 CFR 240.13d-1, filing of Schedules 13D and 13GLegal Information Institute (Cornell) · current
Reporting
- "Coursera Sinks 19% as Weak Q4 Guide and 'Meaningfully Lower' 2027 Baseline Spark Downgrades"TIKR · Oct. 30, 2026
- "Coursera Aktie: JPMorgan und KeyBanc stufen wegen schwächerem Ausblick ab"Goldesel · Oct. 30, 2026
- "Coursera (NYSE:COUR) exceeds Q3 2026 expectations but stock drops on weak guidance"StockStory · Oct. 29, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for COUR, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Nov. 5, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded. Daily moves are close to close. Every Coursera close in the chart's Story range is in its data table. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased to Coursera's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Coursera page, a selection of filings, not every one, and not only those tied to this story. "Lowest close since it began trading" compares the Oct. 30 close with every close from March 31, 2021.
- Coursera's buyback averages for July, August, September and the third quarter ($5.59) are the ones in its 10-Q's monthly table. The May 15 to June 30 average is the nine-month total ($191.9 million for 34.6 million shares) less the third quarter ($101.6 million for 18.1 million), and the Oct. 1 to Nov. 4 average is $33.6 million for 7.1 million shares; both include commissions. The $225.5 million and 41.7 million are the nine-month figures plus the October ones.
- The $275.1 million left in the program is $308.6 million (Sept. 30, excluding commissions) less the $33.5 million spent from Oct. 1 to Nov. 4 excluding $0.1 million of commissions.
- Pale Fire's dollar total and average price are the shares in each Form 4 row times its weighted-average price. Its percentages are KeyVex's math on 253.3 million shares unless a filing's own figure is named. Its filings name two individuals as control persons; KeyVex names the firm.