
FIS$29.76▼ 23.7%FIS expected profit per share up 8% to 10% in 2026. Now it sees about 2%, and less in 2027
FIS cut its profit forecast for the second time on Nov. 4 and said its finance chief is stepping down. Its filings show buybacks cut to $93 million in nine months while it pays down debt.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 7 public records
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 7 public records
FIS$29.76▼ 23.7%Close, Nov. 4. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Most of FIS's expected 28% to 29% sales jump this year is a card business it bought in January, valued at $13.5 billion. Its forecast for adjusted profit per share: up 1.2% to 2.4%.
- In February, FIS expected profit per share to grow 8% to 10% this year. It trimmed that in August and cut it again on Nov. 4.
- In a preliminary view of 2027 given on the call, finance chief James Kehoe said FIS expects adjusted profit per share to fall by a high single to low double digit percentage.
- FIS says it has cut back buybacks to pay down debt. It bought back $93 million of stock in nine months, after $1.3 billion in all of 2025.
- FIS says its review of what it owns covers the whole company. It plans a fuller update with its year-end results.
The cut: FIS, whose software runs bank accounts and credit cards for financial institutions, cut its 2026 profit forecast for the second time on Nov. 4, its earnings release shows.8-KTranscriptTranscript It now expects adjusted earnings per share, its own measure rather than the standard accounting one, of $5.82 to $5.89. That is up 1.2% to 2.4% from 2025, or about 2% at the middle. In August it had expected $6.15 to $6.24.8-K8-K Its stock fell 23.7% that day to $29.76, its lowest close since Feb. 13, 2012.Chart data
The gap: The same release forecasts adjusted revenue up 28% to 29% this year.8-K Most of that jump is a business FIS bought in January: Global Payments' card-issuing arm, once called TSYS, at an enterprise value of $13.5 billion.8-K Counting that business in both years, FIS expects revenue to grow 3.1% to 3.6%.8-K
Why it matters: Chief executive Stephanie Ferris said the outlook does not reflect the business's long-term earnings power.TranscriptTranscript For now, FIS expects adjusted profit per share to rise only about 2% this year and, in a preliminary view, to fall in 2027. It has cut back buybacks while it pays down debt that stood at $20.8 billion on Sept. 30.8-KTranscriptTranscript
FIS's stock and the forecast's key datesDaily close, April 1, 2025 to Nov. 4, 2026 ▼ 60.1%Show chartHide chart
A forecast cut twice
FIS first gave its 2026 forecast on Feb. 24: adjusted earnings per share up 8% to 10%, or $6.22 to $6.32.8-K It repeated that in May.8-K In August it trimmed the range to 7% to 8.5%. Chief executive Stephanie Ferris said then that the acquisition was "ahead of plan."8-K
The third quarter met the target FIS set in August. Adjusted earnings per share came to $1.61, inside the $1.58 to $1.62 it had forecast, and up 6.6% from a year earlier.8-K8-K So the cut lands on the fourth quarter. The first nine months came to $4.44 a share, the release shows. That leaves $1.38 to $1.45 for the last three months, by KeyVex's math from the company's figures, against $1.68 in the same quarter of 2025.8-KChart data
View the data
| Quarter | Adjusted EPS | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 | $1.68 | The same quarter a year before the one the cut falls on |
| Q1 '26 | $1.36 | |
| Q2 '26 | $1.48 | |
| Q3 '26 | $1.61 | Inside the $1.58 to $1.62 target FIS set in August |
Adjusted figures are FIS's own non-GAAP measure. Sources: FIS earnings releases, Feb. 24, May 8, Aug. 4 and Nov. 4, 2026.
What FIS says went wrong
On the call, Ferris named three things. Customers are shifting from one-time software licenses to subscriptions. Some larger clients pushed back the dates for moving onto FIS systems, and big bank mergers shifted the timing of revenue. And FIS is building flexibility to invest in technology and security, including cyber defense.TranscriptTranscript Asked by Jason Kupferberg of Wells Fargo how many clients had delayed, she said fewer than 10, generally larger ones. Some have restarted, some moved to the end of the first quarter, and some to the third quarter of 2027.TranscriptTranscript
Chief financial officer James Kehoe said that in FIS's preliminary view, 2027 adjusted revenue will range from a 0.5% decline to 1% growth. He expects adjusted earnings per share to fall by a high single digit to low double digit percentage.TranscriptTranscript FIS does not expect $140 million of this year's revenue, from license deals with distribution partners, to repeat in 2027, according to the call.TranscriptTranscript
Our outlook is deliberately prudent
Ferris said she expects the headwinds to largely fade in 2028.TranscriptTranscript
Buybacks wait
FIS bought back $1.3 billion of its stock in 2025.8-K Since closing the deal, FIS has "temporarily curtailed" buybacks to pay down debt. It plans to resume them once a measure of debt to earnings reaches about 2.8 times.8-K Kehoe put that measure at 3.5 times at the end of September.TranscriptTranscript
In the first nine months of 2026, FIS bought back 1.9 million shares for $93 million.10-Q Its dividends rose to $687 million from $640 million a year earlier.10-Q About $1.7 billion is left under its buyback authorization.10-Q Pressure on EBITDA, the profit measure the debt target is based on, "will push out" the return to buybacks, Kehoe said. He added that results from FIS's strategic review could be a large offset.TranscriptTranscript
FIS's buybacks shrank while its dividends grewShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Cash returned | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Share buybacks (All of 2025) | $1.3B | $1.3 billion, FIS release of Feb. 24, 2026 |
| Share buybacks (First nine months of 2026) | $93M | 1.9 million shares for $93 million, 10-Q share repurchase note |
| Dividends paid (First nine months of 2025) | $640M | $640 million, 10-Q cash flow statement |
| Dividends paid (First nine months of 2026) | $687M | $687 million, 10-Q cash flow statement |
The 2025 buyback total is a full year; the rest are nine months. Sources: FIS release of Feb. 24, 2026; FIS Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026.
A new finance chief
FIS announced on Nov. 4 that Kehoe would step down on Nov. 5. He is expected to stay as a non-executive adviser until March 31, 2027, its quarterly report says, and the report gives no reason for the change. He will receive the severance his employment agreement sets for a termination without cause or for good reason.10-Q The board picked chief accounting officer Alexandra Brooks as interim CFO on Oct. 29. The board is searching for a permanent CFO, inside and outside the company.10-Q
What is still open
FIS sold a non-core prepaid business on Oct. 20 for more than $100 million, part of a review of what it owns.8-K Ferris said on the call that the review covers the entire company, and that FIS will give a fuller update with its year-end results.TranscriptTranscript
What to watch
Brooks's one-time $1.25 million equity award as interim CFO is due to be granted, per the 10-Q.
FIS's year-end results, with the fuller update on its strategic review that Ferris promised.
Kehoe's term as a non-executive adviser ends.
The paper trail
FIS's filings behind this story, April 17, 2025 through Nov. 4, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each one.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 17, 2025, 8:34 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | Agrees to buy Global Payments' Issuer Solutions for an enterprise value of $13.5 billion and sell its Worldpay stake. |
| Jan. 12, 2026, 7:27 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | The purchase and the Worldpay sale closed. |
| Feb. 24, 2026, 7:30 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | 2026 forecast: adjusted EPS up 8% to 10%. 2025 buybacks: $1.3 billion. |
| May 8, 2026, 7:37 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | Forecast repeated. |
| Aug. 4, 2026, 7:36 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | Forecast trimmed to 7% to 8.5%; third-quarter target $1.58 to $1.62. |
| Nov. 4, 2026, 7:34 a.m. | 8-K | FIS | Third quarter $1.61; forecast cut to 1.2% to 2.4%. |
| Nov. 4, 2026, 4:15 p.m. | 10-Q | FIS | Kehoe steps down Nov. 5; Brooks interim CFO; buybacks of $93 million in nine months. |
Sources
11 sources, 7 of them public records
Public records
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Nov. 4, 2026
- FIS, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Nov. 4, 2026
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Aug. 4, 2026
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · May 8, 2026
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth quarter and full-year 2025 resultsSEC EDGAR · Feb. 24, 2026
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: completion of the Issuer Solutions acquisition and Worldpay saleSEC EDGAR · Jan. 12, 2026
- FIS, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: announcement of the Worldpay sale and Issuer Solutions acquisitionSEC EDGAR · April 17, 2025
Reporting
- Fidelity National (FIS) Q3 2026 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · Nov. 4, 2026
- Earnings call transcript: FIS Q3 2026Investing.com · Nov. 4, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for FIS, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Nov. 4, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for FISKeyVex · through Nov. 4, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends, as of the Nov. 4, 2026 close. Daily moves are close to close. The lowest-close comparison uses every FIS close in KeyVex's data since Jan. 2, 2008. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased to FIS's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's FIS page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Adjusted earnings per share and pro forma revenue are FIS's own non-GAAP measures, as its releases define them. The fourth quarter of 2025 is from FIS's Feb. 24 release, and each 2026 quarter from that quarter's release. "About 2%" is the middle of the 1.2% to 2.4% range (1.8%), rounded. The fourth-quarter 2026 range is KeyVex's math: the full-year forecast ($5.82 to $5.89) minus the $4.44 the release reports for the first nine months. The three quarters as reported ($1.36, $1.48 and $1.61) add to $4.45; each period's figure is calculated and rounded separately.
- Buybacks for 2026 are from the 10-Q's share repurchase note (1.9 million shares for $93 million in nine months). The cash flow statement's "treasury stock activity" line ($142 million) is larger and is not a measure of buybacks alone. Dividends are dividends paid, from the cash flow statement. Call remarks are from two independent transcripts, The Motley Fool's and Investing.com's, which agree on every point quoted.




