DECK$85.28▼ 0.2%Deckers cut its sales forecast and raised its profit forecast only on tariff refunds
The HOKA and UGG maker's Oct. 22 release says about 52 cents a share of its new profit forecast comes from tariff refunds already received. The forecast rose 45 cents from July.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 6 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 6 public recordsDECK$85.28▼ 0.2%Close, Oct. 22. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- In July, Deckers forecast profit of $7.35 to $7.50 a share for the year to March, assuming no tariff refunds.
- The new $7.80 to $7.95 includes tariff refunds, the release says. The AP reported the Supreme Court struck those tariffs down in February. Without the refunds: about $7.28 to $7.43, by KeyVex's math.
- The business forecasts went the other way. Deckers cut its sales forecast for the year by $160 million to $185 million and lowered its growth forecasts for HOKA and UGG.
- So the refunds more than cover the whole 45-cent raise. The release counts only refunds received by Oct. 8 and assumes no more.
The news: Deckers Brands, which sells HOKA running shoes and UGG boots, raised its profit forecast for the year to next March on Oct. 22, to $7.80 to $7.95 a share.8-K In July it was $7.35 to $7.50.8-K The release went to the SEC at 4:09 p.m. Eastern, after the market closed, and also cut the sales forecast.EDGAR8-K
The refunds: The release's own headline says the range includes "an approximate $0.52 benefit related to IEEPA tariff net refunds received."8-K These are refunds of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Supreme Court struck those tariffs down on Feb. 20, and a trade judge ruled on March 4 that importers were owed refunds, the Associated Press reported.AP Through Oct. 8, Deckers had received $87.9 million of refunds, plus $4.7 million of interest.8-K That is net of what it shares with its independent manufacturers, finance chief Steve Fasching said on the call.CallCall
Why it matters: The forecast rose 45 cents at each end. The refunds alone are worth about 52. Take them out and the range is about $7.28 to $7.43, by KeyVex's math: 7 cents below July's, and 2 cents below Deckers' first forecast for the year, in May.8-K8-K Both earlier forecasts assumed no tariff refunds.8-K8-K Fasching said the company is "in large part maintaining our prior EPS expectations before the benefit of net IEEPA tariff refunds." EPS is earnings per share.CallCall
The stock: Deckers closed at $85.28 on Oct. 22, before the release.Chart data At 2:14 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 23 it traded at $80.39, down 5.7%.Quote
Deckers' stock, the tariff ruling and its three forecastsDaily close, Feb. 2 to Oct. 22, 2026 ▼ 26.6%Show chartHide chart
- 1Feb. 20, 2026 The Supreme Court strikes down tariffs imposed under IEEPA. The Associated Press reported the ruling. Deckers closes at $118.69.
- 2March 4, 2026 A trade judge rules importers are owed refunds. Judge Richard Eaton of the Court of International Trade, the AP reported. Deckers closes at $108.74.
- 3May 21, 2026 First fiscal 2027 forecast: $7.30 to $7.45 a share. Sales of $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion. The forecast assumes no tariff refunds. Deckers closes at $102.62, before the release.
- 4July 23, 2026 Forecast raised five cents, to $7.35 to $7.50. Sales forecast unchanged; still no refunds assumed. Deckers closes at $96.23, before the release.
- 5Oct. 22, 2026 Forecast $7.80 to $7.95, including about $0.52 of refunds. Sales forecast cut to $5.700 billion to $5.725 billion. Released after the close; Deckers closes at $85.28 that day.
View the data (183 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | $85.28 | −0.2% |
| 2026-10-21 | $85.49 | −2.2% |
| 2026-10-20 | $87.37 | +0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | $87.24 | +1.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | $85.71 | −1.0% |
| 2026-10-15 | $86.58 | +4.5% |
| 2026-10-14 | $82.82 | −1.4% |
| 2026-10-13 | $84.02 | −0.3% |
| 2026-10-12 | $84.27 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | $82.89 | +0.4% |
| 2026-10-08 | $82.56 | +2.7% |
| 2026-10-07 | $80.38 | −1.6% |
| 2026-10-06 | $81.66 | +1.8% |
| 2026-10-05 | $80.21 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | $79.12 | −0.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | $79.57 | +1.8% |
| 2026-09-30 | $78.14 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | $77.68 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-28 | $78.36 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-25 | $78.67 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | $78.68 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-23 | $78.59 | −1.6% |
| 2026-09-22 | $79.83 | −0.5% |
| 2026-09-21 | $80.23 | +2.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | $78.43 | −1.6% |
| 2026-09-17 | $79.71 | +2.2% |
| 2026-09-16 | $77.96 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-15 | $77.51 | −3.8% |
| 2026-09-14 | $80.54 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | $81.27 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-10 | $79.88 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | $80.23 | −2.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | $82.60 | −3.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | $85.81 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-03 | $84.50 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-02 | $83.76 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | $84.58 | −2.9% |
| 2026-08-31 | $87.08 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | $87.76 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | $86.33 | −3.5% |
| 2026-08-26 | $89.47 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-25 | $88.74 | −3.6% |
| 2026-08-24 | $92.08 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | $91.68 | +3.2% |
| 2026-08-20 | $88.86 | −3.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | $91.57 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-18 | $89.51 | −0.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | $90.11 | −3.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | $93.09 | −0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | $93.30 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-12 | $91.20 | −2.8% |
| 2026-08-11 | $93.84 | −3.7% |
| 2026-08-10 | $97.44 | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | $97.46 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | $97.87 | −1.5% |
| 2026-08-05 | $99.31 | −0.6% |
| 2026-08-04 | $99.87 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-03 | $99.50 | +2.7% |
| 2026-07-31 | $96.88 | −2.8% |
| 2026-07-30 | $99.69 | −3.7% |
| 2026-07-29 | $103.54 | −0.4% |
| 2026-07-28 | $103.92 | +6.3% |
| 2026-07-27 | $97.73 | +1.8% |
| 2026-07-24 | $96.04 | −0.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | $96.23 | −6.1% |
| 2026-07-22 | $102.47 | −0.8% |
| 2026-07-21 | $103.31 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-20 | $104.04 | −2.3% |
| 2026-07-17 | $106.49 | −2.3% |
| 2026-07-16 | $109.03 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-15 | $106.53 | −0.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | $106.60 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | $107.80 | +1.7% |
| 2026-07-10 | $105.99 | +1.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | $104.26 | +2.0% |
| 2026-07-08 | $102.22 | −3.6% |
| 2026-07-07 | $106.08 | +0.4% |
| 2026-07-06 | $105.67 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | $104.69 | +4.3% |
| 2026-07-01 | $100.33 | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | $99.29 | −2.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | $101.28 | −3.1% |
| 2026-06-26 | $104.56 | +1.9% |
| 2026-06-25 | $102.59 | −2.9% |
| 2026-06-24 | $105.70 | +2.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | $103.63 | −1.8% |
| 2026-06-22 | $105.57 | −3.2% |
| 2026-06-18 | $109.11 | +3.2% |
| 2026-06-17 | $105.72 | −4.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | $110.17 | −2.1% |
| 2026-06-15 | $112.50 | −1.2% |
| 2026-06-12 | $113.83 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-11 | $114.37 | +2.9% |
| 2026-06-10 | $111.18 | −1.2% |
| 2026-06-09 | $112.48 | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | $109.73 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-05 | $108.13 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | $108.96 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-03 | $107.36 | −3.1% |
| 2026-06-02 | $110.79 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | $110.82 | −2.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | $113.85 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-28 | $114.31 | −0.1% |
| 2026-05-27 | $114.37 | +2.6% |
| 2026-05-26 | $111.44 | +4.5% |
| 2026-05-22 | $106.67 | +3.9% |
| 2026-05-21 | $102.62 | +4.5% |
| 2026-05-20 | $98.24 | +4.2% |
| 2026-05-19 | $94.27 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-18 | $94.61 | +1.1% |
| 2026-05-15 | $93.56 | −1.5% |
| 2026-05-14 | $94.97 | +1.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | $93.93 | −1.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | $94.89 | −1.8% |
| 2026-05-11 | $96.65 | −3.8% |
| 2026-05-08 | $100.42 | −2.2% |
| 2026-05-07 | $102.72 | −1.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $103.92 | +5.5% |
| 2026-05-05 | $98.54 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-04 | $97.65 | −3.2% |
| 2026-05-01 | $100.88 | −1.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | $102.20 | +0.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $101.34 | −4.6% |
| 2026-04-28 | $106.18 | −0.6% |
| 2026-04-27 | $106.77 | −1.6% |
| 2026-04-24 | $108.53 | +0.8% |
| 2026-04-23 | $107.71 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | $107.69 | −2.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | $110.17 | −0.8% |
| 2026-04-20 | $111.06 | −1.3% |
| 2026-04-17 | $112.50 | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-16 | $108.33 | −0.5% |
| 2026-04-15 | $108.87 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | $107.81 | −0.3% |
| 2026-04-13 | $108.14 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-10 | $107.86 | −1.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | $109.77 | +3.2% |
| 2026-04-08 | $106.35 | +6.1% |
| 2026-04-07 | $100.26 | −1.4% |
| 2026-04-06 | $101.64 | +3.4% |
| 2026-04-02 | $98.31 | −2.6% |
| 2026-04-01 | $100.91 | +0.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | $100.09 | +5.4% |
| 2026-03-30 | $94.97 | +1.0% |
| 2026-03-27 | $94.05 | +0.4% |
| 2026-03-26 | $93.69 | −6.4% |
| 2026-03-25 | $100.05 | −1.3% |
| 2026-03-24 | $101.39 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-23 | $102.45 | +2.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | $100.43 | −4.3% |
| 2026-03-19 | $104.91 | +0.4% |
| 2026-03-18 | $104.54 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-17 | $104.71 | +2.9% |
| 2026-03-16 | $101.71 | +0.9% |
| 2026-03-13 | $100.78 | +0.1% |
| 2026-03-12 | $100.69 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-11 | $102.72 | −2.4% |
| 2026-03-10 | $105.26 | +0.9% |
| 2026-03-09 | $104.32 | +0.1% |
| 2026-03-06 | $104.25 | −3.1% |
| 2026-03-05 | $107.58 | −1.1% |
| 2026-03-04 | $108.74 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | $109.86 | −4.1% |
| 2026-03-02 | $114.51 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-27 | $117.27 | −1.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | $119.41 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | $119.42 | −1.3% |
| 2026-02-24 | $120.94 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-23 | $118.17 | −0.4% |
| 2026-02-20 | $118.69 | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-19 | $118.07 | −0.7% |
| 2026-02-18 | $118.89 | +1.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | $117.35 | +1.4% |
| 2026-02-13 | $115.73 | −0.2% |
| 2026-02-12 | $116.02 | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-11 | $115.36 | −0.1% |
| 2026-02-10 | $115.51 | +0.9% |
| 2026-02-09 | $114.50 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-06 | $115.45 | +3.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | $111.17 | −1.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | $112.25 | −1.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | $113.34 | −2.5% |
| 2026-02-02 | $116.25 |
Deckers reported each forecast after the market closed, so each dot's close comes before the news. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
What went down
The sales forecast is now $5.700 billion to $5.725 billion. In May and again in July it was $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion.8-K8-K That is a cut of $160 million at the bottom and $185 million at the top.
HOKA is now expected to grow by a high-single-digit percentage this year, down from a low-double-digit percentage in July. UGG is now expected to grow by a low-single-digit percentage, down from mid-single digits.8-K8-K
In the quarter to Sept. 30, sales rose 3.5% to $1.481 billion, a record for the second quarter. HOKA grew 6.8% and UGG 3.5%.8-K Sales on Deckers' own websites and in its own stores fell 1.8%.8-K
"As the quarter progressed, the U.S. marketplace became increasingly promotional," Fasching said.CallCall Chief executive Stefano Caroti told an analyst from UBS: "we are not participating in a race to the bottom."CallCall He also named three HOKA shoes, the Transport, Kawana and Solimar, that "didn't go as planned." Others, including the Speedgoat 7, Arahi 9 and Stinson 8, are doing well, he said.CallCall
What went up
The quarter's profit per share, mostly on the refunds. Second-quarter earnings were $2.31 a share, up 27% from $1.82, including about $0.28 of refunds.8-K Without them, Fasching said, it was $2.03, up 11.5%.CallCall
Fewer shares helped too. Deckers bought back about 6.5 million of its shares in the six months to Sept. 30, for $637.5 million.8-K Its average diluted share count in the quarter was 135.3 million, down 8.4% from a year earlier.8-K Profit divided over fewer shares is more profit per share. The new forecast assumes $1.0 billion of buybacks this year.8-K
View the data
| Amount | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| July forecast (Top of the range) | $7.50 | $7.35 to $7.50, July 23 release; no tariff refunds assumed |
| Everything else (KeyVex's math) | -$0.07 | The change once the refunds are taken out: $7.95 - $0.52 = $7.43, against July's $7.50 |
| Tariff refunds (Deckers' estimate) | +$0.52 | About $0.52 a share, from $87.9 million of refunds and $4.7 million of interest received through Oct. 8 |
| October forecast (Top of the range) | $7.95 | $7.80 to $7.95, Oct. 22 release |
The refund figure is Deckers' estimate. "Everything else" is KeyVex's math: the October top end minus the refunds, against July's top end. The bottom of the range moved the same way: $7.35 to $7.80, or about $7.28 without the refunds. Sources: Deckers' July 23 and Oct. 22 results releases.
Even without the refunds, the forecast would top the $7.02 a share Deckers earned last fiscal year, its record.8-K
Money already received
The forecast counts only refunds already in hand: about 90% of what Deckers applied for, Fasching said, and none of the rest.CallCall
Sam Poser, an analyst at Williams Trading, asked on the call for margin guidance with the refunds taken out. He said "we are going to have to take it out next year anyway."CallCall
Beyond what it had received by Oct. 8, the outlook "does not assume any further collection of tariff refunds," the release says.8-K
Also in the filings
The same 8-K, in an item the records do not tie to the forecast, names Rati Sahi Levesque a director from Dec. 1. She replaces Lauri Shanahan, who is retiring; Deckers says her retirement is not the result of any disagreement.8-K8-K
What to watch
Deckers' third quarter, which includes the holidays, ends. Fasching put its forecast at $3.52 to $3.60 a share, about 24 cents of it refunds.
Fiscal 2027 ends. The full-year forecast is $7.80 to $7.95, about 52 cents of it refunds already received.
The paper trail
Deckers' results releases on the fiscal 2027 forecast, May 21 through Oct. 22, 2026. An 8-K reports results or a major event.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21 | 8-K | Deckers | Fiscal 2026 results: a record $7.02 a share. Fiscal 2027 forecast $7.30 to $7.45, sales $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion; no refunds assumed. |
| July 23 | 8-K | Deckers | Forecast raised to $7.35 to $7.50; sales forecast unchanged; no refunds assumed. |
| Oct. 22, 4:09 p.m. | 8-K | Deckers | Forecast $7.80 to $7.95, including about $0.52 of refunds; sales forecast $5.700 billion to $5.725 billion. Board change. |
Sources
11 sources, 6 of them public records
Public records
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and updated outlookSEC EDGAR · Oct. 22, 2026
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K (Items 2.02, 5.02, 7.01)SEC EDGAR · Oct. 22, 2026
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K filing index (EDGAR acceptance time)SEC EDGAR · Oct. 22, 2026
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2: board appointmentSEC EDGAR · Oct. 22, 2026
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first-quarter fiscal 2027 results and outlookSEC EDGAR · July 23, 2026
- Deckers Outdoor Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlookSEC EDGAR · May 21, 2026
Reporting
- Deckers (DECK) Q2 2027 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · Oct. 22, 2026
- Earnings call transcript: Deckers Q2 2027Investing.com · Oct. 22, 2026
- "Judge rules companies are entitled to refunds for Trump tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court" (as published by WTOP)The Associated Press · March 4, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for DECK, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart, and the Oct. 23 intraday quote (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 23, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for DECKKeyVex · through Oct. 22, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends, through Oct. 22, 2026, the last close in KeyVex's data when this story was written. The Oct. 23 price is a 2:14 p.m. Eastern intraday quote from Tiingo's IEX feed, against the Oct. 22 close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Deckers' close at the start of the range shown. Prices before Deckers' September 2024 six-for-one split are adjusted for it. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Deckers stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- The forecast without refunds is KeyVex's math: each end of the Oct. 22 range minus the company's estimate of about $0.52 a share. $7.80 - $0.52 = $7.28; $7.95 - $0.52 = $7.43. Because the $0.52 is approximate, so are these. The sales cut is the May and July range minus the Oct. 22 range: $5.86 billion - $5.700 billion = $160 million; $5.91 billion - $5.725 billion = $185 million.
- Deckers' fiscal year ends March 31, so fiscal 2027 runs from April 2026 through March 2027, and its second quarter is July through September 2026. Earnings per share are diluted, as Deckers reports them. The share-count change compares the weighted average diluted shares in the quarter to Sept. 30, 2026 (135.3 million) with the same quarter a year earlier (147.7 million).
- Remarks from the call are checked against two published transcripts, The Motley Fool's and Investing.com's.