AMZN$248.00▼ 1.0%Anthropic lost $80.7 billion, its business $693 million. Most of the rest: Amazon's notes
Anthropic made its IPO filing public on Oct. 26. It and Amazon's own filings show most of the first-half loss came from notes that, by June 30, only Amazon still held. Amazon valued them at $97.9 billion.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 3 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 3 public recordsAMZN$248.00▼ 1.0%Close, Oct. 23. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- A loss usually means a company spent more than it took in. Anthropic's business lost $693 million in the first half of 2026, on $16.3 billion of revenue.
- Most of the rest is an accounting charge. Amazon lent Anthropic money through notes, loans that turn into shares at fixed prices as low as $2.0928. $6.2 billion is still owed.
- As Anthropic's value rose, those notes grew more valuable, and Anthropic must record the rise as a loss: $72.4 billion in six months, mostly on Amazon's notes. Amazon valued them at $97.9 billion.
- Anthropic marks the notes until they become shares or are paid off. At the IPO they convert, up to a cap of 12% of Anthropic, counted fully diluted, that Amazon can waive.
- Next: Amazon holds its third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 29 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
The filing: Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI models, made its IPO filing public on Oct. 26. It shows a net loss of $80.7 billion for the six months to June 30, on revenue of $16.3 billion.S-1 Anthropic has applied to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT; the share count and price range are still blank.S-1 KeyVex News is written with Claude, an AI model Anthropic makes.
The loss: Running the business lost $693 million. Most of the rest, $72.4 billion, came from one accounting line: the change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs. A convertible note is a loan that later turns into shares. Anthropic says the charge came mainly from its notes rising in value as its own valuation climbed.S-1 The same line was $1.0 billion in 2023 and $34.3 billion in 2025.S-1
Why it matters: At June 30, the notes still outstanding "consist entirely" of notes issued to Amazon, the filing says. In the second quarter alone, when only those notes were left, the charge was $59.6 billion.S-1 Amazon's $6.2 billion of notes can turn into shares at $2.0928 or $5.0478 each. In an April tender offer, buyers paid $25.9136 a share for Anthropic's common stock.S-1 Anthropic keeps marking the notes until they convert or are settled, and they are set to convert at the IPO.S-1
Amazon's stock and the story's key datesDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 23, 2026 ▲ 9.5%Show chartHide chart
- 1April 29, 2026 Amazon's first-quarter 10-Q, after the close. $12.3 billion of upward adjustments to its Anthropic preferred stock in the quarter. Close: $263.04.
- 2July 30, 2026 Amazon's second-quarter 10-Q, after the close. $50.5 billion of upward adjustments in the quarter; its Anthropic notes estimated at $97.9 billion at June 30. Close: $235.50.
- 3Oct. 23, 2026 Last close before Anthropic's filing. Anthropic made its registration statement public on Oct. 26 at 9:00 a.m. Close: $248.00.
View the data (204 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | $248.00 | −1.0% |
| 2026-10-22 | $250.38 | −4.6% |
| 2026-10-21 | $262.37 | −0.1% |
| 2026-10-20 | $262.63 | +0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | $262.45 | +5.0% |
| 2026-10-16 | $250.00 | −1.9% |
| 2026-10-15 | $254.76 | +0.3% |
| 2026-10-14 | $254.08 | −1.7% |
| 2026-10-13 | $258.58 | −0.4% |
| 2026-10-12 | $259.53 | −1.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | $262.43 | +3.3% |
| 2026-10-08 | $254.06 | −2.3% |
| 2026-10-07 | $259.92 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-06 | $256.29 | +1.9% |
| 2026-10-05 | $251.40 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | $251.52 | +1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | $248.23 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | $249.15 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | $246.67 | +0.2% |
| 2026-09-28 | $246.15 | −1.4% |
| 2026-09-25 | $249.67 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-24 | $249.38 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-23 | $249.27 | −2.2% |
| 2026-09-22 | $254.98 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-21 | $258.45 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-18 | $253.71 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-17 | $251.19 | +2.1% |
| 2026-09-16 | $245.96 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-15 | $248.42 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-14 | $253.54 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | $256.78 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | $251.89 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-09 | $252.40 | −1.8% |
| 2026-09-08 | $256.97 | −0.6% |
| 2026-09-04 | $258.51 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | $258.90 | +1.5% |
| 2026-09-02 | $254.98 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | $254.92 | −1.9% |
| 2026-08-31 | $259.77 | −2.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | $266.43 | +4.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $256.26 | −1.5% |
| 2026-08-26 | $260.28 | −0.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | $261.06 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | $262.07 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | $258.63 | −0.6% |
| 2026-08-20 | $260.11 | −2.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | $265.84 | +2.5% |
| 2026-08-18 | $259.45 | −0.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | $261.31 | −0.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | $262.65 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | $265.13 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-12 | $267.28 | −1.8% |
| 2026-08-11 | $272.27 | −2.1% |
| 2026-08-10 | $278.09 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-07 | $274.48 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-06 | $272.26 | −0.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | $272.65 | −1.7% |
| 2026-08-04 | $277.42 | −2.3% |
| 2026-08-03 | $284.02 | +4.6% |
| 2026-07-31 | $271.58 | +15.3% |
| 2026-07-30 | $235.50 | +3.9% |
| 2026-07-29 | $226.65 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-28 | $230.86 | −0.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | $231.39 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | $232.11 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | $233.66 | −4.6% |
| 2026-07-22 | $244.85 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | $247.55 | −1.0% |
| 2026-07-20 | $249.99 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | $247.23 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | $249.89 | −2.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | $254.96 | +3.0% |
| 2026-07-14 | $247.49 | +0.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | $247.31 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07-10 | $245.34 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | $247.04 | +1.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | $243.62 | −1.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | $245.98 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-06 | $244.16 | +0.6% |
| 2026-07-02 | $242.67 | +0.4% |
| 2026-07-01 | $241.70 | +1.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | $238.34 | −0.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | $240.14 | +3.2% |
| 2026-06-26 | $232.69 | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-25 | $227.01 | −3.1% |
| 2026-06-24 | $234.27 | +0.1% |
| 2026-06-23 | $234.11 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-22 | $232.79 | −4.7% |
| 2026-06-18 | $244.39 | +2.9% |
| 2026-06-17 | $237.50 | −3.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | $246.00 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | $246.02 | +3.1% |
| 2026-06-12 | $238.55 | −1.2% |
| 2026-06-11 | $241.51 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-10 | $238.00 | −2.5% |
| 2026-06-09 | $244.19 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-08 | $245.22 | −0.3% |
| 2026-06-05 | $246.03 | −3.1% |
| 2026-06-04 | $253.79 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-03 | $250.02 | −2.5% |
| 2026-06-02 | $256.52 | −1.8% |
| 2026-06-01 | $261.26 | −3.5% |
| 2026-05-29 | $270.64 | −1.2% |
| 2026-05-28 | $274.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-05-27 | $271.85 | +2.5% |
| 2026-05-26 | $265.29 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-22 | $266.32 | −0.8% |
| 2026-05-21 | $268.46 | +1.3% |
| 2026-05-20 | $265.01 | +2.2% |
| 2026-05-19 | $259.34 | −2.1% |
| 2026-05-18 | $264.86 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-15 | $264.14 | −1.2% |
| 2026-05-14 | $267.22 | −1.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | $270.13 | +1.6% |
| 2026-05-12 | $265.82 | −1.2% |
| 2026-05-11 | $268.99 | −1.4% |
| 2026-05-08 | $272.68 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | $271.17 | −1.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $274.99 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-05 | $273.55 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-04 | $272.05 | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-01 | $268.26 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | $265.06 | +0.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $263.04 | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-28 | $259.70 | −0.5% |
| 2026-04-27 | $261.12 | −1.1% |
| 2026-04-24 | $263.99 | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-23 | $255.08 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | $255.36 | +2.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | $249.91 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-20 | $248.28 | −0.9% |
| 2026-04-17 | $250.56 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | $249.70 | +0.5% |
| 2026-04-15 | $248.50 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-14 | $249.02 | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-13 | $239.89 | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-10 | $238.38 | +2.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | $233.65 | +5.6% |
| 2026-04-08 | $221.25 | +3.5% |
| 2026-04-07 | $213.77 | +0.5% |
| 2026-04-06 | $212.79 | +1.4% |
| 2026-04-02 | $209.77 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-01 | $210.57 | +1.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | $208.27 | +3.6% |
| 2026-03-30 | $200.95 | +0.8% |
| 2026-03-27 | $199.34 | −4.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | $207.54 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-25 | $211.71 | +2.2% |
| 2026-03-24 | $207.24 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-23 | $210.14 | +2.3% |
| 2026-03-20 | $205.37 | −1.6% |
| 2026-03-19 | $208.76 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-18 | $209.87 | −2.5% |
| 2026-03-17 | $215.20 | +1.6% |
| 2026-03-16 | $211.74 | +2.0% |
| 2026-03-13 | $207.67 | −0.9% |
| 2026-03-12 | $209.53 | −1.5% |
| 2026-03-11 | $212.65 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-10 | $214.33 | +0.4% |
| 2026-03-09 | $213.49 | +0.1% |
| 2026-03-06 | $213.21 | −2.6% |
| 2026-03-05 | $218.94 | +1.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | $216.82 | +3.9% |
| 2026-03-03 | $208.73 | +0.2% |
| 2026-03-02 | $208.39 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-27 | $210.00 | +1.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $207.92 | −1.3% |
| 2026-02-25 | $210.64 | +1.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | $208.56 | +1.6% |
| 2026-02-23 | $205.27 | −2.3% |
| 2026-02-20 | $210.11 | +2.6% |
| 2026-02-19 | $204.86 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $204.79 | +1.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | $201.15 | +1.2% |
| 2026-02-13 | $198.79 | −0.4% |
| 2026-02-12 | $199.60 | −2.2% |
| 2026-02-11 | $204.08 | −1.4% |
| 2026-02-10 | $206.96 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-09 | $208.72 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-06 | $210.32 | −5.6% |
| 2026-02-05 | $222.69 | −4.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | $232.99 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-03 | $238.62 | −1.8% |
| 2026-02-02 | $242.96 | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-30 | $239.30 | −1.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | $241.73 | −0.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | $243.01 | −0.7% |
| 2026-01-27 | $244.68 | +2.6% |
| 2026-01-26 | $238.42 | −0.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | $239.16 | +2.1% |
| 2026-01-22 | $234.34 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-21 | $231.31 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-20 | $231.00 | −3.4% |
| 2026-01-16 | $239.12 | +0.4% |
| 2026-01-15 | $238.18 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-14 | $236.65 | −2.5% |
| 2026-01-13 | $242.60 | −1.6% |
| 2026-01-12 | $246.47 | −0.4% |
| 2026-01-09 | $247.38 | +0.4% |
| 2026-01-08 | $246.29 | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | $241.56 | +0.3% |
| 2026-01-06 | $240.93 | +3.4% |
| 2026-01-05 | $233.06 | +2.9% |
| 2026-01-02 | $226.50 |
Amazon closed at $248.00 on Oct. 23. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
Where the $80.7 billion came from
View the data
| Anthropic, six months to June 30, 2026 | $ billions | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Operating loss (Running the business) | $0.7B | $693 million on $16.3 billion of revenue |
| Marking up its notes (And other liabilities) | $72.4B | $72,388 million change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs |
| Other expense (Financing agreements) | $8.8B | $8,757 million, mainly tied to its note purchase agreements |
| Net loss (First half of 2026) | $80.7B | $80,748 million, after $1,111 million of interest income and $21 million of taxes |
Source: Anthropic's Form S-1, consolidated statements of operations.
Below the operating line, another $8.8 billion came mainly from valuing the note purchase agreements Anthropic signed in 2026, it says.S-1
What Amazon lent, and what the notes turn into
Amazon invested $8.0 billion in Anthropic notes from 2023 to 2025, its 10-Q says. Some of them were already turned into preferred stock.10-Q At June 30, $6.2 billion of principal remained, and the notes carry no interest.S-1
The following table summarizes the notes outstanding under our NPAs as of June 30, 2026, which consist entirely of non-interest-bearing rollover notes issued to Amazon under the Amazon 2023 NPA and the Amazon 2024 NPA, neither of which provides for the issuance of additional notes.
At the IPO, they turn into non-voting shares at those fixed prices, or at the IPO price if that is lower. That would be about 1.84 billion shares at the fixed prices.S-1
There is a limit. No part of a note converts beyond the point where Amazon would hold more than 12% of Anthropic, counted on a fully diluted basis, unless Amazon waives that cap. What cannot convert stays a note and can convert at later quarter-ends.S-1
The same notes on Amazon's books
Anthropic's notes to Amazon, valued two ways at June 30, 2026Show chartHide chart
View the data
| The same notes, June 30, 2026 | $ billions | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Principal owed (Notes outstanding) | $6.2B | $6,203 million, all of it notes issued to Amazon |
| Amazon's estimate (Its 10-Q) | $97.9B | About $97.9 billion, the estimated fair value of Amazon's Anthropic notes |
| Anthropic's estimate (Its S-1) | $108.6B | $108,566 million, convertible notes payable at fair value |
Sources: Anthropic's Form S-1 (principal; convertible notes payable at fair value); Amazon's Form 10-Q for the second quarter (estimated fair value of its Anthropic notes).
Amazon estimated its Anthropic notes were worth about $97.9 billion at June 30, up from $45.8 billion at the end of 2025. Anthropic carried its notes at $108.6 billion.10-QS-1 Amazon says its estimates include discounts for lack of marketability; it records unrealized gains on the notes outside its profit until they convert.10-Q
Its Anthropic preferred stock did reach Amazon's profit. Amazon booked $62.8 billion of upward adjustments on it in the half, $50.5 billion of that in the second quarter, to reflect the prices of Anthropic's new funding rounds.10-Q10-Q Q1 Amazon's tax provision for the half included $15.9 billion of what it calls net discrete tax expense. It traces most of that to the Anthropic adjustments.10-Q
By KeyVex's math, Amazon carried its Anthropic stake at about $190.4 billion at June 30: $92.5 billion of preferred stock and the $97.9 billion of notes. The preferred includes $10.0 billion Amazon bought in the second quarter: $5.0 billion of Series G and $5.0 billion of Series H stock.10-Q
Backer, supplier and sales channel
Amazon is also Anthropic's supplier. In April, Anthropic committed to spend at least $110.0 billion with Amazon from May 2026 to April 2036, "regardless of actual usage." If it spends less, it pays Amazon the difference, with some exceptions.S-1 Google has a similar pair of deals: Anthropic committed to spend at least about $114.5 billion with Google through July 2033, and Google agreed to a financing facility with $20.0 billion still available.S-1
Amazon agreed to make up to $15.0 billion more available in exchange for new Anthropic shares or notes. It comes in $5.0 billion steps as computing-capacity milestones under their commercial agreements are met.S-1 Unconverted notes can be repaid in cash at maturity or, at Amazon's election, set off against amounts Amazon owes Anthropic under those agreements.S-1
Amazon also sells Anthropic's models. Sales through cloud marketplaces made up 48% of Anthropic's revenue in the half; its cloud providers are Amazon, Google and Microsoft.S-1
Anthropic's risk factors say its relationships with Amazon, Google and Microsoft "could give rise to conflicts of interest," because those companies invest in it, supply it, buy from it and compete with it.S-1
Two readings
"Amazon is going to be the biggest beneficiary because it can win twice," Harrison Rolfes, a senior analyst at PitchBook, told Yahoo Finance in September, before the filing was public: on compute sales and on its investment.Yahoo Finance
Julian Lim, writing in Startup Fortune, read the loss as mostly paper. The real risk, he wrote, is the at least $518 billion Anthropic has pledged for cloud and computing over ten years, a number that "should give a reader pause, far more than the $80.7 billion headline figure."Startup Fortune
The next numbers come from Amazon, which holds its third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 29; its next 10-Q will cover what it booked on Anthropic through Sept. 30.Amazon Where the notes finally convert depends on the IPO price, still blank in the filing.S-1
What to watch
Amazon holds its third-quarter earnings call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
Amazon's notes convert into non-voting shares at $2.0928 or $5.0478, or the IPO price if lower, up to its 12% cap.
Notes blocked by the cap can convert at each quarter-end. Up to $15.0 billion more from Amazon becomes available as computing-capacity milestones are met, for up to 30 months.
Anthropic's promise to spend at least $110.0 billion with Amazon runs from May 2026 to April 2036.
The paper trail
Filings cited here, April 29 through Oct. 26, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each one (Eastern).
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 29, 2026, 6:48 p.m. | 10-Q | Amazon | First quarter: $12.3 billion of upward adjustments to its Anthropic preferred stock. |
| July 30, 2026, 6:11 p.m. | 10-Q | Amazon | Second quarter: $50.5 billion more; its Anthropic notes estimated at $97.9 billion; $15.9 billion of net discrete tax expense. |
| Oct. 26, 2026, 9:00 a.m. | S-1 | Anthropic | IPO registration statement: the $80.7 billion loss, the notes owed to Amazon, the cloud promises. |
Sources
7 sources, 3 of them public records
Public records
- Anthropic, PBC, registration statement (Form S-1)SEC EDGAR · Oct. 26, 2026
- Amazon.com, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · July 30, 2026 (accepted; EDGAR filing date July 31)
- Amazon.com, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026SEC EDGAR · April 29, 2026 (accepted; EDGAR filing date April 30)
Rules and references
- Amazon will share its Q3 2026 earnings on October 29About Amazon (Amazon's newsroom) · Oct. 2026
Reporting
- "Anthropic's IPO filing sheds new light on who stands to make money from public debut" (David Hollerith)Yahoo Finance · Oct. 26, 2026
- "Anthropic lost $80.7 billion in six months, and most of it is a warning sign anyway" (Julian Lim)Startup Fortune · Oct. 26, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for AMZN, SPY and QQQ (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 23, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Anthropic's figures come from its Form S-1 as filed on Oct. 26, 2026; the six-month figures are unaudited. Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2026: $80,748 million, made up of an operating loss of $693 million, interest income of $1,111 million, a change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $72,388 million, other expense of $8,757 million and a $21 million tax provision. In Anthropic's Level 3 table, convertible notes payable rose from $41,677 million at Dec. 31, 2025, to $108,566 million at June 30, 2026, with a $72,388 million change in fair value and $5,499 million converted. Adjusted Operating Income is Anthropic's own non-GAAP measure.
- The notes outstanding at June 30, 2026: $2,186 million under the Amazon 2023 agreement, convertible at $2.0928 a share into 1,044,716,970 Class N shares, and $4,017 million under the Amazon 2024 agreement, at $5.0478 into 795,727,992 shares; $6,203 million and 1,840,444,962 shares in all, at the fixed prices. Class N shares carry no vote.
- Amazon's figures come from its 10-Qs. Amazon's notes and Anthropic's notes payable are the same instruments valued by two companies; Amazon's estimate (about $97.9 billion) and Anthropic's ($108,566 million) differ, and Amazon says its estimate includes discounts for lack of marketability. The $190.4 billion is KeyVex's sum of Amazon's two June 30 amounts ($92.5 billion of preferred stock and $97.9 billion of notes); Yahoo Finance reported the same total.
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends, through Oct. 23, 2026, the last close before the S-1 was made public. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Amazon's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Amazon stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider sales, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration, not a photograph of a real Anthropic or Amazon site. KeyVex News is written with Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic; this story rests only on the filings and named sources cited. This is a reading of public filings, not investment advice.