USOTrump says Iran is faking Hormuz tanker hits; US military says 95% of ships get through
Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims seven tankers were hit in a day; as of Oct. 23, no report KeyVex reviewed had named a ship. Other counts of the strait's traffic differ from Trump's, and US gasoline was $4.28 a gallon.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public recordsKeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 4 public recordsThe short versionTap to readTap to close
- President Trump said on Oct. 22 that Iran is "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else" around the Strait of Hormuz. A US military spokesperson said 95% of ships are getting through.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims seven tankers were hit in one day, but named none of them. The AP could not confirm it, and a British military monitor did not report it.
- Trump also says more oil now moves through the strait than before the war. Regional exports are near prewar levels, gCaptain reported, but counts of the strait itself are lower.
- What drivers see: US regular gasoline was $4.28 a gallon in the week of Oct. 19, against $2.94 the week before the war began. The government's next reading is due Oct. 26.
The news: President Trump said on Oct. 22 that Iran is "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else," answering Iran's claims of ship attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. He wrote that Iran is "doing everything they can to drive up the price of oil prior to the US Midterm Election."Al Jazeera
The US military: A US Central Command spokesperson, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, said Iran's mine claims are incorrect and that US forces have cleared the international shipping lanes of mines. The spokesperson said Iran is using missiles and drones, and that the strait remains open, with 95% of vessels getting through. The US military has been escorting ships through the waterway in increasing numbers, Al Jazeera reported.Al Jazeera
Iran's claim: Iran's Revolutionary Guard said seven tankers were struck: four caught fire while transferring oil, and three were disabled after striking mines. That would be the waterway's largest single-day toll since the war began on Feb. 28.Al Jazeera Iran said the four were moving oil for an American company, but it did not name the ships, their owners or the company.gCaptain The Associated Press could not independently confirm the claims. The UK Maritime Trade Operations, a British military monitor, did not report them.AP On Oct. 18, the Joint Maritime Information Center said there was "no substantiation" for an earlier Iranian claim that two supertankers had struck mines, gCaptain reported.gCaptain
Why it matters: Before the war, a fifth of the world's oil supplies passed through the strait, Al Jazeera noted.Al Jazeera Brent crude, the international standard for oil, hit $114 a barrel on Oct. 23, CBS News reported.CBS News That morning, CBS said none of the seven had been corroborated.CBS News None of the reports KeyVex reviewed had named a ship, so the claim can't yet be checked against a single vessel.gCaptainAP
The counts don't agree
Trump also wrote that more oil is moving through the strait now than before the war began.Al Jazeera Overall Middle East oil shipments have approached or exceeded prewar levels, helped by pipelines and transfers between ships offshore, gCaptain reported. Counts of the strait itself are lower. Flows through the strait, including those transfers, were about 82% of prewar levels, gCaptain reported, citing The Wall Street Journal. The UK Maritime Trade Operations logged 254 ship crossings in the seven days to Oct. 14, about 70% below pre-conflict levels, including US-reported crossings it says it cannot verify.gCaptain
The monitor's silence doesn't settle Iran's claim either. In its Oct. 16 assessment, it said most of the vessels targeted were not reporting incidents to it directly, gCaptain reported.gCaptain Lloyd's List Intelligence, a shipping data firm, counted 28 attacks on ships in October, the most since the war began, the AP reported.AP On Oct. 23, the United Arab Emirates reported a tanker oil spill affecting the beaches of Umm Al Quwain, CBS News reported; residents in the north of the country had reported oil smells in recent days. The UAE statement did not name the tanker or say what caused the spill.CBS News
What Washington is doing
On Oct. 21, the Treasury sanctioned a Panama- and Greece-based law firm, a ship manager, two shipping agents, five people tied to the law firm and nine vessels. It said the network helped Iran move oil, petrochemicals and steel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that "if you are supporting the Iranian regime, we will find you and sanction you."Treasury
All nine vessels are now on the government's sanctions list, KeyVex's copy of it shows. Seven are Panama-flagged cargo ships that Treasury says Roxette Maritime Shipping and Trading manages; two are small UAE-flagged support vessels it says Whales Shipping Line owns.TreasuryKeyVex data
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told the Financial Times that the war could last another year, CBS News reported. He said the US Navy can maintain its blockade of Iranian ports "for the foreseeable future."CBS News
Oil's year, in the government's numbers
CBS News put Brent at $112 a barrel on Oct. 22, its highest since May 18.CBS News The government tracks a different measure, the Brent spot price, and it has run higher. The US Energy Information Administration's weekly average of it was $127.43 a barrel in the week of Oct. 5, its 2026 high.EIAKeyVex data
View the data
| Week starting | Brent crude, weekly average spot price |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | $127.43 |
| 2026-09-28 | $120.03 |
| 2026-09-21 | $117.08 |
| 2026-09-14 | $124.15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $111.83 |
| 2026-08-31 | $99.09 |
| 2026-08-24 | $89.73 |
| 2026-08-17 | $94.20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $92.51 |
| 2026-08-03 | $87.86 |
| 2026-07-27 | $91.63 |
| 2026-07-20 | $96.12 |
| 2026-07-13 | $82.93 |
| 2026-07-06 | $73.33 |
| 2026-06-29 | $69.70 |
| 2026-06-22 | $73.63 |
| 2026-06-15 | $81.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | $93.76 |
| 2026-06-01 | $98.95 |
| 2026-05-25 | $97.05 |
| 2026-05-18 | $110.61 |
| 2026-05-11 | $110.53 |
| 2026-05-04 | $105.88 |
| 2026-04-27 | $119.63 |
| 2026-04-20 | $109.62 |
| 2026-04-13 | $114.43 |
| 2026-04-06 | $124.61 |
| 2026-03-30 | $123.94 |
| 2026-03-23 | $111.24 |
| 2026-03-16 | $111.40 |
| 2026-03-09 | $96.16 |
| 2026-03-02 | $85.28 |
| 2026-02-23 | $71.36 |
| 2026-02-16 | $71.66 |
| 2026-02-09 | $70.70 |
| 2026-02-02 | $69.84 |
| 2026-01-26 | $70.43 |
| 2026-01-19 | $66.99 |
| 2026-01-12 | $67.00 |
| 2026-01-05 | $62.93 |
| 2025-12-29 | $62.18 |
Source: US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price (RBRTE), weekly averages, via KeyVex. Each week is labelled by the date it starts. EIA's weekly Brent figures in KeyVex run through the week of Oct. 5.
That spot price averaged $71.36 a barrel in the week before the war began on Feb. 28, the week of Feb. 23. Three weeks later it was above $111. It peaked at $124.61 in the week of April 6, then fell back to $69.70 by the week of June 29. It climbed again, past $100 in September, to the October high.EIA
How the market closed on Oct. 22
The United States Oil Fund, which tracks oil futures, closed up 1.7%, and the SPDR S&P 500 fund fell 1.2%. An airline fund rose 1.4%. An energy fund fell 0.9%, and a defense-industry fund slipped 0.6%. Shares of tanker owners Frontline and Scorpio Tankers closed down less than 1%.Prices The records don't show what moved any of them.
At the pump
US regular gasoline averaged $2.94 a gallon on Feb. 23, five days before the war began. It peaked at $4.50 in May, eased to $3.78 in July, and was $4.28 in the week of Oct. 19. The government publishes its next weekly reading on Oct. 26.EIA
US gasoline's weekly retail price in 2026Show chartHide chart
View the data
| Week starting | US regular gasoline, weekly retail price |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | $4.28 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.33 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.46 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.48 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.32 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.07 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.08 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.05 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.01 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.08 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.10 |
| 2026-07-20 | $4.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | $3.85 |
| 2026-07-06 | $3.78 |
| 2026-06-29 | $3.83 |
| 2026-06-22 | $3.91 |
| 2026-06-15 | $4.05 |
| 2026-06-08 | $4.15 |
| 2026-06-01 | $4.30 |
| 2026-05-25 | $4.47 |
| 2026-05-18 | $4.49 |
| 2026-05-11 | $4.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | $4.45 |
| 2026-04-27 | $4.12 |
| 2026-04-20 | $4.04 |
| 2026-04-13 | $4.12 |
| 2026-04-06 | $4.12 |
| 2026-03-30 | $3.99 |
| 2026-03-23 | $3.96 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.72 |
| 2026-03-09 | $3.50 |
| 2026-03-02 | $3.02 |
| 2026-02-23 | $2.94 |
| 2026-02-16 | $2.92 |
| 2026-02-09 | $2.90 |
| 2026-02-02 | $2.87 |
| 2026-01-26 | $2.85 |
| 2026-01-19 | $2.81 |
| 2026-01-12 | $2.78 |
| 2026-01-05 | $2.80 |
| 2025-12-29 | $2.81 |
Source: US Energy Information Administration, weekly retail gasoline prices, via KeyVex. Each week is labelled by the date it starts.
What to watch
EIA's next weekly US gasoline price.
The US midterm election, which Trump tied to Iran's claims.
Sources
11 sources, 4 of them public records
Public records
- "Operation Economic Outcast Targets Iran's Shadow Fleet Networks"US Department of the Treasury · Oct. 21, 2026
- Iran-related designations, recent actionsOffice of Foreign Assets Control · Oct. 21, 2026
- Europe Brent spot price FOB (RBRTE), weeklyUS Energy Information Administration · 2026
- US regular gasoline retail price, all formulations, weeklyUS Energy Information Administration · 2026
Reporting
- "Iran says seven ships hit in Hormuz Strait, warns US of wider response" (Al Jazeera staff, with AFP and AP)Al Jazeera · Oct. 22, 2026
- "Iran Claims More Ships Struck Near Hormuz as Trump Accuses Tehran of 'Faking Hits'" (Mike Schuler)gCaptain · Oct. 22, 2026
- "Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears of a return to war grow"The Associated Press, via NBC News · Oct. 22, 2026
- Iran war live updatesCBS News · Oct. 22-23, 2026
Data
- Economic indicators: EIA energy seriesKeyVex · through Oct. 19, 2026
- OFAC Specially Designated Nationals listKeyVex · Oct. 23, 2026
- Daily closes for USO, SPY, JETS, XLE, ITA, FRO and STNG, Oct. 21 and 22 (Tiingo)KeyVex · Oct. 22, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Oil and gasoline prices are the US Energy Information Administration's weekly series as KeyVex stores them: Brent is the weekly average of the Europe Brent spot price (RBRTE), the price of physical cargoes; gasoline is the weekly US average retail price of regular gasoline, all formulations. Each week is labelled by the date it starts. EIA's weekly Brent figures in KeyVex ran through the week of Oct. 5 when this was written. Brent prices quoted in news reports can differ from this spot price.
- Oct. 22 moves are each fund's or stock's as-traded close against its Oct. 21 close, from KeyVex's daily prices (Tiingo). This story was written before the market opened on Oct. 23.
- The attack claims come from Iran's Revolutionary Guard as reported by Al Jazeera (with AFP and AP), the AP and gCaptain; KeyVex has not verified them, and neither had those outlets. The sanctioned vessels were checked against the OFAC list as KeyVex stored it on Oct. 23.
- The header image was generated for KeyVex by an image model. It is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.