PEP$128.34▲ 3.7%PepsiCo counted on tariff refunds in July. They came, and it still cut its outlook
PepsiCo beat third-quarter estimates on Oct. 8 and cut its full-year profit outlook. Its filings show tariff refunds supplied more than all of the quarter's 3% growth in core operating profit.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 5 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 5 public recordsPEP$128.34▲ 3.7%Close, Oct. 8. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- In July, PepsiCo expected core earnings per share, a profit measure that leaves out items it treats as one-time, to grow about 5% to 7% this year, possibly near the low end.
- Its finance chief said then that refunds of tariffs it paid in 2025 would supply about 1 point of that growth.
- The refunds came. Without them, third-quarter core operating profit, which grew 3%, would have slipped slightly, by KeyVex's math.
- PepsiCo then cut its forecast to 2.5% to 3.5% growth. Its finance chief said on the Oct. 8 call that margins are driving the cut.
- By KeyVex's math, the new range leaves about $2.19 to $2.27 of core EPS for the fourth quarter, against $2.26 a year earlier.
The forecast: PepsiCo cut its 2026 profit forecast on Oct. 8, in the same release that showed it beat analysts' third-quarter estimates.8-K It now expects core earnings per share, which leave out items it treats as one-time, to grow 2.5% to 3.5%. Before, it expected the low end of about 5% to 7%.8-K8-K Core EPS was $2.34 for the quarter, against the $2.29 analysts expected, according to LSEG figures cited by Investing Live.Investing Live
The refund: The quarter had help. Tariff refunds added 4 percentage points to core operating profit, the release says. That profit, measured before the same one-time items, grew 3%.8-K Take the refund points out and it would have slipped slightly, by KeyVex's math.8-K PepsiCo has now received "substantially all" of the refunds, its quarterly report says.10-Q
Why it matters: The refunds were not a surprise. In July, finance chief Steve Schmitt said they "will be about 1 full point of EPS growth for the year" and would help offset commodity costs.CallFood Dive So the refunds were already part of the year PepsiCo described when it affirmed its forecast. They arrived, and the forecast still came down.8-K
The stock: PepsiCo closed at $123.73 on Oct. 7, its lowest close since April 1, 2020, and 27% below its Feb. 6 high. On Oct. 8 it closed up 3.7%, at $128.34. The filings don't say why.Chart data
PepsiCo's stock and the story's key datesDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 8, 2026 ▼ 9.8%Show chartHide chart
- 1Feb. 3, 2026 PepsiCo affirms its 2026 outlook. Core EPS growth of about 5% to 7%, with fourth-quarter 2025 results and a 4% dividend increase.
- 2April 16, 2026 First-quarter results; outlook affirmed. Core EPS up 9% from a year earlier.
- 3July 9, 2026 Second-quarter results; outlook affirmed, possibly near the low end. The finance chief says tariff refunds will add about 1 point of EPS growth for the year.
- 4Oct. 7, 2026 Lowest close since April 2020. $123.73. That evening PepsiCo files its third-quarter report.
- 5Oct. 8, 2026 Third-quarter results; outlook cut. Core EPS growth now 2.5% to 3.5%. The stock closes up 3.7%.
View the data (193 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | $128.34 | +3.7% |
| 2026-10-07 | $123.73 | −1.6% |
| 2026-10-06 | $125.71 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-05 | $125.65 | −0.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | $125.89 | +0.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | $125.60 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | $126.72 | −1.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | $128.69 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | $128.50 | −0.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | $128.63 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | $128.15 | −1.6% |
| 2026-09-23 | $130.18 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-22 | $131.19 | +1.2% |
| 2026-09-21 | $129.59 | −0.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | $129.75 | −2.9% |
| 2026-09-17 | $133.66 | −0.5% |
| 2026-09-16 | $134.34 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-15 | $135.50 | −0.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | $136.34 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | $136.32 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-10 | $136.65 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-09 | $136.69 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-08 | $138.45 | +0.6% |
| 2026-09-04 | $137.63 | −1.7% |
| 2026-09-03 | $140.02 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | $140.52 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-01 | $139.79 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-31 | $140.34 | −0.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | $141.07 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $139.72 | −1.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | $142.19 | −0.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | $142.27 | −1.7% |
| 2026-08-24 | $144.67 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-21 | $143.48 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-20 | $142.08 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-19 | $142.58 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-18 | $140.13 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-17 | $138.24 | −1.8% |
| 2026-08-14 | $140.79 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-13 | $140.62 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | $138.70 | +0.2% |
| 2026-08-11 | $138.41 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-10 | $137.73 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | $139.02 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | $138.44 | −0.2% |
| 2026-08-05 | $138.78 | −0.2% |
| 2026-08-04 | $139.10 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-03 | $139.63 | +0.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | $139.56 | −0.5% |
| 2026-07-30 | $140.20 | −2.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | $143.50 | +0.4% |
| 2026-07-28 | $142.86 | +2.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | $139.79 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | $136.64 | +1.3% |
| 2026-07-23 | $134.95 | −0.5% |
| 2026-07-22 | $135.65 | +0.5% |
| 2026-07-21 | $135.00 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-20 | $135.46 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-17 | $137.12 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | $139.43 | +3.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | $135.40 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-14 | $135.45 | −2.2% |
| 2026-07-13 | $138.49 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07-10 | $137.38 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-09 | $137.86 | −3.3% |
| 2026-07-08 | $142.51 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-07 | $144.98 | +1.2% |
| 2026-07-06 | $143.29 | −0.6% |
| 2026-07-02 | $144.22 | +2.2% |
| 2026-07-01 | $141.16 | +4.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | $135.40 | −2.4% |
| 2026-06-29 | $138.68 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-26 | $141.39 | +1.3% |
| 2026-06-25 | $139.52 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-24 | $142.27 | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-23 | $142.05 | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-22 | $140.71 | −0.9% |
| 2026-06-18 | $142.02 | +0.3% |
| 2026-06-17 | $141.59 | −3.1% |
| 2026-06-16 | $146.12 | −0.1% |
| 2026-06-15 | $146.25 | +1.4% |
| 2026-06-12 | $144.27 | +0.4% |
| 2026-06-11 | $143.73 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-10 | $144.32 | +1.1% |
| 2026-06-09 | $142.78 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | $140.68 | −0.9% |
| 2026-06-05 | $141.92 | −0.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | $142.15 | −0.3% |
| 2026-06-03 | $142.54 | +0.4% |
| 2026-06-02 | $142.00 | +0.3% |
| 2026-06-01 | $141.52 | −1.9% |
| 2026-05-29 | $144.19 | −1.4% |
| 2026-05-28 | $146.29 | −1.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | $147.74 | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | $145.68 | −3.2% |
| 2026-05-22 | $150.57 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-21 | $148.85 | −0.3% |
| 2026-05-20 | $149.29 | −0.7% |
| 2026-05-19 | $150.37 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | $149.06 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-15 | $149.12 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | $148.67 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-13 | $149.27 | −1.7% |
| 2026-05-12 | $151.85 | +1.6% |
| 2026-05-11 | $149.41 | −3.4% |
| 2026-05-08 | $154.62 | −1.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | $156.29 | +0.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $155.96 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-05 | $155.04 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-04 | $154.59 | −1.8% |
| 2026-05-01 | $157.41 | −0.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | $158.49 | +2.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $155.29 | −0.6% |
| 2026-04-28 | $156.29 | +1.4% |
| 2026-04-27 | $154.10 | −0.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | $155.44 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $155.70 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-22 | $153.79 | −0.7% |
| 2026-04-21 | $154.92 | −1.3% |
| 2026-04-20 | $156.99 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-17 | $157.67 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-16 | $158.38 | +2.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | $154.85 | −0.6% |
| 2026-04-14 | $155.72 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-13 | $155.88 | −0.8% |
| 2026-04-10 | $157.06 | −0.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | $157.49 | +1.7% |
| 2026-04-08 | $154.80 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | $153.21 | −2.2% |
| 2026-04-06 | $156.73 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-02 | $157.01 | +1.5% |
| 2026-04-01 | $154.65 | −0.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | $155.29 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | $156.82 | +2.5% |
| 2026-03-27 | $153.04 | +1.5% |
| 2026-03-26 | $150.83 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-25 | $151.73 | +0.8% |
| 2026-03-24 | $150.59 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-23 | $150.88 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-20 | $150.04 | −1.8% |
| 2026-03-19 | $152.74 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-18 | $153.54 | −1.9% |
| 2026-03-17 | $156.50 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-16 | $157.72 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-13 | $159.88 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-12 | $158.86 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-11 | $160.15 | −0.4% |
| 2026-03-10 | $160.78 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-09 | $161.53 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-06 | $159.43 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-05 | $160.70 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | $163.92 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-03 | $164.91 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-02 | $167.28 | −1.4% |
| 2026-02-27 | $169.74 | +1.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $167.58 | −0.9% |
| 2026-02-25 | $169.17 | −0.2% |
| 2026-02-24 | $169.54 | +0.7% |
| 2026-02-23 | $168.32 | +2.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $164.94 | +0.2% |
| 2026-02-19 | $164.59 | +0.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $164.39 | +1.5% |
| 2026-02-17 | $161.92 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-13 | $165.94 | −0.8% |
| 2026-02-12 | $167.20 | −1.2% |
| 2026-02-11 | $169.15 | +1.3% |
| 2026-02-10 | $166.97 | +0.3% |
| 2026-02-09 | $166.47 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-06 | $170.49 | +1.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | $167.53 | +0.8% |
| 2026-02-04 | $166.18 | +2.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | $162.85 | +4.9% |
| 2026-02-02 | $155.20 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | $153.63 | +3.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $148.69 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-28 | $148.50 | −0.2% |
| 2026-01-27 | $148.78 | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-26 | $145.87 | +0.9% |
| 2026-01-23 | $144.58 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-22 | $144.40 | −1.6% |
| 2026-01-21 | $146.74 | −0.6% |
| 2026-01-20 | $147.66 | +0.9% |
| 2026-01-16 | $146.32 | −0.2% |
| 2026-01-15 | $146.57 | +0.4% |
| 2026-01-14 | $145.92 | +1.7% |
| 2026-01-13 | $143.48 | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-12 | $141.36 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $139.91 | +0.4% |
| 2026-01-08 | $139.37 | +1.7% |
| 2026-01-07 | $137.01 | −1.4% |
| 2026-01-06 | $138.96 | −0.7% |
| 2026-01-05 | $139.92 | −1.6% |
| 2026-01-02 | $142.23 |
Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex. PepsiCo released results before the market opened on Oct. 8; the chart ends at that day's close of $128.34.
Where the refunds came from
The refunds trace to the Supreme Court's ruling that many tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, were invalid. PepsiCo then filed claims with U.S. Customs and Border Protection.10-Q
Following this ruling, we submitted tariff recovery claims through the U.S. Customs and Border Protection seeking a refund of certain eligible IEEPA tariffs and received substantially all of the refunds of such tariffs.
Neither filing gives a dollar amount. The quarterly report gives a tariff figure for only one of its six units, North American beverages. Its reported operating profit rose 45%. The first item the report lists is a favorable net impact of charges and credits tied to its poppi acquisition. The net effect of tariffs, refunds included, and higher commodity costs added 23 points. Its volume fell 2%.10-Q
Levi Strauss's quarter also leaned on IEEPA refunds, KeyVex reported on Oct. 8.
What changed between July and October
Core EPS growth slowed each quarter this year: 9% in the first, 4% in the second, 2% in the third.8-K8-K8-KData
View the data
| Quarter | Core EPS growth | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 9% | Core EPS $1.61, against $1.48 a year earlier |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | Core EPS $2.20, against $2.12 a year earlier |
| Q3 2026 | 2% | Core EPS $2.34, against $2.29 a year earlier |
Sources: PepsiCo releases for the first, second and third quarters of 2026 (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1).
In July, Schmitt said the year "may be towards the low end of the EPS range" PepsiCo had given.Call
On Oct. 8 he said, "It's the margin piece that's driving the guide down in EPS." He added: "Input costs are trending higher, and mix has been a headwind in particular." Mix is the blend of products and packages sold.Call PepsiCo's hedges, contracts that set what it pays for some inputs, usually run six to 12 months, he said, and are starting to roll off.Call
The sales forecast held up: PepsiCo now expects net revenue growth of about 6%, the top of its earlier 4% to 6%. It kept its plan to return $8.9 billion to shareholders this year, $7.9 billion of it in dividends.8-K
Where the pressure sits
Schmitt said the third quarter had a tariff benefit in North American beverages. "Once that goes away, that puts some more underlying pressure on the North America beverages business," he said.Call Chief executive Ramon Laguarta said PepsiCo is "not competing well in soft drinks" and is cutting costs elsewhere, including overhead, to invest more in its North American drinks and food businesses.Call
Abroad, the picture differs. International businesses grew organic revenue 8% in the quarter and made 45% of PepsiCo's profit so far this year, the company said on the call.Call Laguarta called that strength "much more structural" than the weather and World Cup lift an analyst had raised.Call
Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman, asking about PepsiCo's U.S. snacks and marketing plans, said everything the company had been describing "sounds a little bit tactical" and asked whether it was time to "think bigger."Call Writing for Investing Live, Eamonn Sheridan said that stripping out the refund "leaves underlying margins under more pressure than the headline numbers imply."Investing Live
What the new range leaves for the fourth quarter
PepsiCo earned $8.14 a share in core EPS in 2025, and $6.15 in the first three quarters of 2026.8-K8-K Growth of 2.5% to 3.5% for the year leaves about $2.19 to $2.27 for the fourth quarter, by KeyVex's math. At the low end of the July outlook, the same math left about $2.40.Data
PepsiCo's fourth-quarter core EPS: last year, and what each outlook leavesShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Fourth-quarter core EPS | Per share | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025, actual (Reported Feb. 3) | $2.26 | Core EPS for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended Dec. 27, 2025 |
| Q4 2026 at the July outlook's low end (KeyVex's math) | $2.40 | $8.14 grown 5%, less $6.15 earned in the first three quarters |
| Q4 2026, top of new range (KeyVex's math) | $2.27 | $8.14 grown 3.5%, less $6.15 |
| Q4 2026, bottom of new range (KeyVex's math) | $2.19 | $8.14 grown 2.5%, less $6.15 |
Sources: PepsiCo releases for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first three quarters of 2026. 2026 values: 2025 core EPS of $8.14 grown at the outlook's rate, less $6.15 earned through the third quarter.
That runs from about 3% below to slightly above the $2.26 it earned a year earlier.8-KData Schmitt said PepsiCo would give its 2027 expectations in February, when it reports that quarter.Call
What to watch
PepsiCo reports its fourth quarter and, Schmitt said on the Oct. 8 call, gives its 2027 expectations.
The paper trail
Selected PepsiCo filings on its 2026 outlook, with the time EDGAR accepted each one. Each was filed after 5:30 p.m. and is dated the next day on EDGAR.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 2, 6:12 p.m. | 8-K | PepsiCo | Fourth-quarter 2025 results: core EPS $2.26 for the quarter, $8.14 for the year; 2026 outlook affirmed, core EPS growth of about 5% to 7%. |
| Apr. 15, 6:01 p.m. | 8-K | PepsiCo | First-quarter 2026 results: core EPS $1.61, up 9%; outlook affirmed. |
| July 8, 5:55 p.m. | 8-K | PepsiCo | Second-quarter results: core EPS $2.20, up 4%; outlook affirmed. |
| Oct. 7, 5:52 p.m. | 10-Q | PepsiCo | Third-quarter report: "substantially all" of the IEEPA tariff refunds received. |
| Oct. 7, 5:57 p.m. | 8-K | PepsiCo | Third-quarter results: core EPS $2.34, up 2%; 4-point tariff-refund benefit to core operating profit; core EPS outlook cut to 2.5% to 3.5% growth. |
Related coverage
Sources
11 sources, 5 of them public records
Public records
- PepsiCo, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 8, 2026
- PepsiCo, Inc., Form 10-Q for the 12 and 36 weeks ended Sept. 5, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 8, 2026
- PepsiCo, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · July 9, 2026
- PepsiCo, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Apr. 16, 2026
- PepsiCo, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 resultsSEC EDGAR · Feb. 3, 2026
Reporting
- PepsiCo third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · Oct. 8, 2026
- PepsiCo second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · July 9, 2026
- "PepsiCo CFO says tariff refund will help offset inflation"Food Dive · July 14, 2026
- "PepsiCo lowers profit guidance as cost pressure and a cautious US consumer bite"Investing Live · Oct. 8, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for PEP, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 8, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for PEPKeyVex · through Oct. 8, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to PepsiCo's close at the start of the range shown. "Lowest close since April 1, 2020" compares the Oct. 7, 2026 close of $123.73 with every as-traded close from Oct. 10, 2016; the last lower one was $118.12 on April 1, 2020. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's PepsiCo stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Core EPS and core operating profit are PepsiCo's own non-GAAP measures, which leave out items it treats as affecting comparability; the company defines them in its releases. GAAP EPS for the quarter was $2.23, against $1.90 a year earlier.
- Core operating profit without the refunds is KeyVex's math: the company reports core operating profit of $4,277 million against $4,137 million (up about 3.4%, which it rounds to 3%) and a 4-percentage-point favorable impact from tariff refunds, so the rest of the business contributed a change of about minus 0.6%. Because the company rounds the 4 points, the true figure lies somewhere between about minus 1.1% and minus 0.1%.
- Fourth-quarter figures are KeyVex's math: 2025 core EPS of $8.14 grown 2.5% and 3.5% gives $8.34 and $8.42 for 2026; less $6.15 earned in the first three quarters of 2026 ($1.61, $2.20 and $2.34) leaves about $2.19 to $2.27. At 5%, the low end of the July outlook, the same math gives about $2.40. PepsiCo's release gives a full-year range only, no fourth-quarter forecast.
- The July call quotes are from The Motley Fool's transcript of the July 9 call; Food Dive reported the refund remarks on July 14. The October call quotes are from The Motley Fool's transcript of the Oct. 8 call. Analysts' expectations are LSEG's, as cited by Investing Live.
