UNH$378.52▼ 0.2%UnitedHealth's first-half revisions to prior-year claims: $1.25 billion, vs. $320 million
UnitedHealth raised its 2026 profit outlook a third time on Oct. 13. By KeyVex's math, its medical cost ratio would still have been lower than a year earlier without $610 million of estimate revisions.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 9 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 9 public recordsUNH$378.52▼ 0.2%Close, Oct. 12. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- A health insurer books the cost of care when it is given, before the bills arrive, so it estimates. When later information shows the bills will come in lower, the difference reduces its medical costs.
- In the third quarter of 2026, revisions on 2026 care lowered UnitedHealth's reported medical costs by $610 million.
- Its medical care ratio, the share of premiums paid out for care, was 88.4%. Without the $610 million, it would have been about 89.1%, by KeyVex's math, still under 89.9% a year earlier.
- Its quarterly reports count revisions to earlier years' claims separately: $1.25 billion in the first half of 2026, against $320 million a year earlier.
- Chief executive Stephen Hemsley said the company would give a fuller update on its 2027 outlook before year-end.
The outlook: UnitedHealth Group raised its 2026 forecast for the third time on Oct. 13, before the market opened. It now expects adjusted earnings, its own profit measure, of at least $20.50 a share.8-K In July it expected $19.50 to $20.00.8-K Third-quarter adjusted earnings were $4.69 a share, against $2.92 a year earlier.8-K
The estimates: Part of the quarter's lower medical costs came from revising earlier estimates. UnitedHealth reported $610 million of net favorable reserve development tied to 2026 care: its new estimates of what it owed for care already given came in below what it had booked.8-K Its quarterly reports count revisions to earlier years' claims separately. Those came to $1.25 billion in the first half of 2026, against $320 million a year earlier.10-Q
Why it matters: The medical care ratio shows how much of each premium dollar goes to care. UnitedHealth's fell to 88.4% from 89.9% a year earlier.8-K8-K Without the $610 million, it would have been about 89.1%, by KeyVex's math from the release: still lower than a year earlier.8-K
The stock: The shares closed at $378.52 on Oct. 12, the day before the report: 34% above the Jan. 27 close and 11% below the July 16 close. Jan. 27 was the day of the first 2026 forecast; the stock closed down 19.6%.Chart data
UnitedHealth's stock and the story's key datesDaily close, Oct. 1, 2025 to Oct. 12, 2026 ▲ 8.7%Show chartHide chart
- 1Oct. 28, 2025 Third-quarter 2025 results. Medical care ratio 89.9%. The release reports $80 million of favorable reserve development, without saying for which year's care.
- 2Jan. 27, 2026 2026 outlook: adjusted EPS above $17.75. The stock closes down 19.6%, at $282.70.
- 3April 21, 2026 First outlook raise: above $18.25. First-quarter results; the release cites favorable reserve development without a dollar figure.
- 4July 16, 2026 Second raise: $19.50 to $20.00. Second-quarter results, with $860 million of net favorable development.
- 5Oct. 12, 2026 Last close before the third-quarter report. $378.52. Before the next day's open, UnitedHealth raises its outlook to at least $20.50.
View the data (259 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | $378.52 | −0.2% |
| 2026-10-09 | $379.30 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-08 | $370.95 | −1.3% |
| 2026-10-07 | $375.98 | −0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | $376.32 | −0.6% |
| 2026-10-05 | $378.58 | +1.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | $371.90 | +1.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | $365.20 | −0.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | $367.08 | −2.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | $374.94 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-28 | $377.83 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-25 | $376.59 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | $375.01 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-23 | $371.29 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | $372.95 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-21 | $377.56 | +0.2% |
| 2026-09-18 | $376.90 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-17 | $375.21 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-16 | $375.26 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-15 | $375.93 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-14 | $383.55 | +1.2% |
| 2026-09-11 | $379.09 | −2.4% |
| 2026-09-10 | $388.28 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-09 | $393.06 | −1.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | $400.84 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-04 | $397.14 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-03 | $400.94 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-02 | $399.66 | +0.8% |
| 2026-09-01 | $396.30 | +1.8% |
| 2026-08-31 | $389.41 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-28 | $392.95 | −0.5% |
| 2026-08-27 | $395.05 | −1.5% |
| 2026-08-26 | $401.01 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | $396.59 | −0.5% |
| 2026-08-24 | $398.76 | +2.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | $390.11 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-20 | $384.85 | −1.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | $388.61 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-18 | $393.93 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-17 | $395.62 | −1.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | $401.73 | +0.7% |
| 2026-08-13 | $399.06 | −1.6% |
| 2026-08-12 | $405.59 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-11 | $402.19 | −1.6% |
| 2026-08-10 | $408.74 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-07 | $407.08 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-06 | $403.97 | −2.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | $412.75 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-04 | $407.55 | −1.9% |
| 2026-08-03 | $415.36 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | $414.40 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-30 | $421.47 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-29 | $420.57 | −1.9% |
| 2026-07-28 | $428.79 | +2.7% |
| 2026-07-27 | $417.64 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-24 | $420.74 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | $423.56 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-22 | $431.31 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | $436.35 | +3.5% |
| 2026-07-20 | $421.55 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | $426.09 | +0.6% |
| 2026-07-16 | $423.38 | +1.2% |
| 2026-07-15 | $418.52 | −1.6% |
| 2026-07-14 | $425.19 | −0.9% |
| 2026-07-13 | $429.09 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07-10 | $424.62 | −1.6% |
| 2026-07-09 | $431.68 | +1.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | $425.60 | −0.6% |
| 2026-07-07 | $428.19 | +2.4% |
| 2026-07-06 | $417.99 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-02 | $425.36 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-01 | $426.54 | +2.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | $415.63 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | $419.82 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-26 | $427.89 | +3.0% |
| 2026-06-25 | $415.53 | +2.4% |
| 2026-06-24 | $405.80 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-23 | $409.25 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-22 | $406.68 | +1.4% |
| 2026-06-18 | $400.96 | +0.4% |
| 2026-06-17 | $399.53 | −2.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | $407.65 | −0.8% |
| 2026-06-15 | $411.04 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-12 | $408.52 | +0.7% |
| 2026-06-11 | $405.55 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-10 | $407.46 | −1.3% |
| 2026-06-09 | $413.00 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-08 | $406.57 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-05 | $399.47 | +0.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | $396.47 | +5.2% |
| 2026-06-03 | $377.00 | −0.2% |
| 2026-06-02 | $377.92 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-01 | $379.86 | −0.1% |
| 2026-05-29 | $380.31 | −0.6% |
| 2026-05-28 | $382.53 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-27 | $384.01 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-26 | $376.86 | −3.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | $388.47 | +1.6% |
| 2026-05-21 | $382.48 | −0.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | $383.30 | −1.5% |
| 2026-05-19 | $389.24 | −0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | $391.13 | −0.7% |
| 2026-05-15 | $393.85 | −1.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | $399.09 | −0.5% |
| 2026-05-13 | $401.16 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-12 | $396.39 | +3.1% |
| 2026-05-11 | $384.44 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | $379.98 | +2.8% |
| 2026-05-07 | $369.74 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | $367.28 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | $363.87 | −1.9% |
| 2026-05-04 | $370.75 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | $368.78 | −0.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | $370.48 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $370.74 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-28 | $366.77 | +3.4% |
| 2026-04-27 | $354.69 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-24 | $354.92 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-23 | $354.56 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | $353.52 | +2.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | $346.01 | +7.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | $323.48 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-17 | $324.63 | +2.6% |
| 2026-04-16 | $316.40 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | $314.05 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | $314.19 | +0.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | $313.00 | +2.8% |
| 2026-04-10 | $304.33 | −0.8% |
| 2026-04-09 | $306.91 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-08 | $305.98 | −0.6% |
| 2026-04-07 | $307.73 | +9.4% |
| 2026-04-06 | $281.36 | +1.5% |
| 2026-04-02 | $277.26 | +1.2% |
| 2026-04-01 | $273.98 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | $270.59 | +3.4% |
| 2026-03-30 | $261.79 | +1.1% |
| 2026-03-27 | $259.02 | −3.4% |
| 2026-03-26 | $268.05 | −0.9% |
| 2026-03-25 | $270.55 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-24 | $272.28 | +1.0% |
| 2026-03-23 | $269.54 | −2.2% |
| 2026-03-20 | $275.59 | −1.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | $280.44 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-18 | $284.33 | −1.1% |
| 2026-03-17 | $287.57 | +0.7% |
| 2026-03-16 | $285.49 | +1.2% |
| 2026-03-13 | $282.09 | +1.8% |
| 2026-03-12 | $277.05 | −2.9% |
| 2026-03-11 | $285.25 | +1.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | $282.34 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-09 | $285.17 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-06 | $286.48 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-05 | $288.77 | −1.1% |
| 2026-03-04 | $291.96 | +1.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | $289.21 | −1.9% |
| 2026-03-02 | $294.93 | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-27 | $293.27 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $286.66 | +0.9% |
| 2026-02-25 | $284.20 | +3.7% |
| 2026-02-24 | $273.95 | −3.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $282.34 | −2.6% |
| 2026-02-20 | $290.00 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | $289.93 | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-18 | $288.20 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | $289.09 | −1.4% |
| 2026-02-13 | $293.19 | +3.1% |
| 2026-02-12 | $284.37 | +2.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | $278.91 | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-10 | $273.22 | −0.9% |
| 2026-02-09 | $275.70 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-06 | $276.65 | +3.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $268.55 | −2.7% |
| 2026-02-04 | $275.92 | −2.9% |
| 2026-02-03 | $284.18 | −0.5% |
| 2026-02-02 | $285.59 | −0.5% |
| 2026-01-30 | $286.93 | −1.8% |
| 2026-01-29 | $292.29 | −0.6% |
| 2026-01-28 | $294.02 | +4.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | $282.70 | −19.6% |
| 2026-01-26 | $351.64 | −1.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | $356.26 | +0.5% |
| 2026-01-22 | $354.47 | +1.9% |
| 2026-01-21 | $347.75 | +2.8% |
| 2026-01-20 | $338.43 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-16 | $331.02 | −2.3% |
| 2026-01-15 | $338.96 | +1.2% |
| 2026-01-14 | $334.96 | +0.3% |
| 2026-01-13 | $333.93 | −1.9% |
| 2026-01-12 | $340.51 | −1.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $343.98 | −0.8% |
| 2026-01-08 | $346.85 | +1.5% |
| 2026-01-07 | $341.70 | −2.1% |
| 2026-01-06 | $348.97 | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-05 | $342.02 | +1.7% |
| 2026-01-02 | $336.40 | +1.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | $330.11 | −0.6% |
| 2025-12-30 | $332.16 | +1.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | $328.94 | −0.9% |
| 2025-12-26 | $331.83 | +1.3% |
| 2025-12-24 | $327.58 | +0.9% |
| 2025-12-23 | $324.80 | −0.1% |
| 2025-12-22 | $325.16 | −0.7% |
| 2025-12-19 | $327.42 | −0.2% |
| 2025-12-18 | $328.14 | −1.1% |
| 2025-12-17 | $331.63 | −0.8% |
| 2025-12-16 | $334.20 | −2.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $341.10 | −0.2% |
| 2025-12-12 | $341.84 | +1.5% |
| 2025-12-11 | $336.73 | +2.5% |
| 2025-12-10 | $328.37 | +1.5% |
| 2025-12-09 | $323.60 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-08 | $323.62 | −2.2% |
| 2025-12-05 | $330.91 | −0.8% |
| 2025-12-04 | $333.49 | −1.8% |
| 2025-12-03 | $339.71 | +4.7% |
| 2025-12-02 | $324.54 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-01 | $323.21 | −2.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $329.77 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-26 | $329.71 | +1.1% |
| 2025-11-25 | $326.28 | +2.3% |
| 2025-11-24 | $319.05 | −0.3% |
| 2025-11-21 | $319.97 | +2.7% |
| 2025-11-20 | $311.54 | +0.8% |
| 2025-11-19 | $309.09 | −1.4% |
| 2025-11-18 | $313.58 | −2.2% |
| 2025-11-17 | $320.52 | −0.4% |
| 2025-11-14 | $321.86 | −3.2% |
| 2025-11-13 | $332.52 | −1.9% |
| 2025-11-12 | $339.06 | +3.5% |
| 2025-11-11 | $327.45 | +1.8% |
| 2025-11-10 | $321.58 | −0.8% |
| 2025-11-07 | $324.21 | +0.8% |
| 2025-11-06 | $321.56 | −1.9% |
| 2025-11-05 | $327.74 | −0.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | $330.83 | −0.9% |
| 2025-11-03 | $333.79 | −2.3% |
| 2025-10-31 | $341.56 | −0.9% |
| 2025-10-30 | $344.75 | −3.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | $355.26 | −3.4% |
| 2025-10-28 | $367.84 | +0.5% |
| 2025-10-27 | $365.98 | +1.0% |
| 2025-10-24 | $362.50 | +0.6% |
| 2025-10-23 | $360.45 | −0.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | $361.49 | −1.1% |
| 2025-10-21 | $365.37 | +0.2% |
| 2025-10-20 | $364.48 | +2.2% |
| 2025-10-17 | $356.60 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-16 | $356.67 | −1.2% |
| 2025-10-15 | $361.15 | +0.3% |
| 2025-10-14 | $359.93 | +0.4% |
| 2025-10-13 | $358.66 | +1.2% |
| 2025-10-10 | $354.50 | −3.6% |
| 2025-10-09 | $367.69 | −0.6% |
| 2025-10-08 | $369.92 | +1.7% |
| 2025-10-07 | $363.66 | +1.4% |
| 2025-10-06 | $358.77 | −0.4% |
| 2025-10-03 | $360.20 | +1.8% |
| 2025-10-02 | $353.72 | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-01 | $348.30 |
Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex. UnitedHealth reported before the market opened on Oct. 13; the chart ends at the Oct. 12 close of $378.52, the last close in KeyVex's data when this story was written.
How reserve releases work
Until the bills arrive, the insurer carries its estimate as a liability. When the estimate comes down, the difference lowers medical costs in the quarter it changes. UnitedHealth calls that favorable development.10-K
Its earnings releases usually give a figure for each quarter. The first-quarter release cited favorable development without one.8-K The second quarter's was $860 million, the majority tied to 2026 care.8-K The third-quarter 2025 release reported $80 million, without saying which year's care it covered.8-K
The figure in the quarterly and annual reports covers earlier years' claims only. The first quarter of 2026 alone brought $1.05 billion.10-Q In 2025, the total fell from $320 million at June 30 to $30 million by September and ended the year at $140 million.10-Q10-KData
View the data
| Period | Favorable development on prior years' claims | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $840M | Full year, favorable development on prior years' claims (2025 Form 10-K) |
| 2024 | $700M | Full year (2025 Form 10-K) |
| 2025 | $140M | Full year (2025 Form 10-K) |
| 2026, first half | $1,250M | Six months ended June 30, 2026 (second-quarter Form 10-Q). The first half of 2025: $320 million |
Sources: UnitedHealth's 2025 Form 10-K (2023 to 2025) and its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
The reports give a reason for 2026's: "a favorable respiratory illness season along with various other individually insignificant factors."10-Q
The $610 million equals about 11% of the quarter's $5.5 billion in earnings before taxes, by KeyVex's math.8-K The Oct. 13 release does not say what drove the third quarter's revisions.8-K
Days claims payable, roughly how many days of medical costs the company holds for unpaid claims, were 47.0, the same as in June and up from 46.2 a year earlier.8-K
What the company says about costs
On the Oct. 13 call, Tim Noel, chief executive of the UnitedHealthcare insurance unit, said costs "remain stubbornly high across the entire healthcare landscape," particularly in specialty drugs and acute care.Call He said cost trends in commercial coverage, which includes plans bought through employers, were exceeding the 11% UnitedHealth had first expected.Call Those remarks were about cost trends. The reserve figures revise estimates for care already given.8-K
The release credits the lower ratio to medical cost management, benefit design changes, pricing discipline and care delivery changes. It says the ratio was also affected by the reserve development.8-K No analyst asked about reserve development on the call, according to Investing.com's transcript, and executives did not raise it.Call
What the new outlook leaves for the fourth quarter
UnitedHealth earned $18.30 a share in adjusted earnings in the first nine months.8-K An outlook of at least $20.50 leaves at least $2.20 for the fourth quarter, by KeyVex's math. A year earlier, the fourth quarter brought $2.11.8-KData
UnitedHealth's adjusted EPS by quarter, and the least the outlook leaves for the fourthShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Quarter | Adjusted EPS | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.11 | Adjusted EPS, actual |
| Q1 2026 | $7.23 | Adjusted EPS, actual |
| Q2 2026 | $6.38 | Adjusted EPS, actual |
| Q3 2026 | $4.69 | Adjusted EPS, actual |
| Q4 2026 | $2.20 | At least this much, by KeyVex's math: the outlook of at least $20.50 less $18.30 earned in the first nine months |
Sources: UnitedHealth releases of Jan. 27, April 21, July 16 and Oct. 13, 2026 (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1). Q4 2026: the outlook of at least $20.50 less $18.30 earned through Sept. 30.
Analysts pressed on the year's end. Barclays analyst Andrew Mok said, "Optum Health's EBIT guidance still appears to imply a meaningfully negative fourth quarter." EBIT is earnings before interest and taxes. An Optum Health executive said the fourth quarter reflects normal seasonal risk patterns.Call
The chief financial officer called "at least $20.50" a "solid run rate on which to grow."Call Chief executive Stephen Hemsley said the company would give a fuller update on its 2027 outlook before year-end.Call
What to watch
UnitedHealth's fuller update on its 2027 outlook, Hemsley said on the Oct. 13 call.
Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. UnitedHealth reported 2025's on Jan. 27.
The paper trail
UnitedHealth's quarterly results releases from Oct. 28, 2025 through Oct. 13, 2026, and the 10-K and 10-Qs this story cites, with the time EDGAR accepted each one (Eastern).
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 28, 2025, 6:02 a.m. | 8-K | UnitedHealth | Third-quarter 2025: medical care ratio 89.9%; $80 million of favorable reserve development, period of care not given. |
| Jan. 27, 2026, 6:02 a.m. | 8-K | UnitedHealth | Full-year 2025: $140 million of favorable reserve development; 2026 outlook of adjusted EPS above $17.75. |
| Mar. 2, 6:06 a.m. | 10-K | UnitedHealth | 2025 annual report: favorable development on prior years' claims of $140 million in 2025, $700 million in 2024, $840 million in 2023. |
| Apr. 21, 6:02 a.m. | 8-K | UnitedHealth | First quarter: favorable reserve development cited without a figure; outlook raised to above $18.25. |
| May 5, 4:38 p.m. | 10-Q | UnitedHealth | First-quarter report: $1,050 million of favorable development on prior years' claims, driven by "a favorable respiratory illness season" and other factors. |
| July 16, 6:00 a.m. | 8-K | UnitedHealth | Second quarter: $860 million of net favorable development; outlook raised to $19.50 to $20.00. |
| Aug. 10, 4:07 p.m. | 10-Q | UnitedHealth | Second-quarter report: $1,250 million of favorable development on prior years' claims in the first half, against $320 million a year earlier. |
| Oct. 13, 6:14 a.m. | 8-K | UnitedHealth | Third quarter: $610 million of net favorable development on 2026 care; medical care ratio 88.4%; outlook raised to at least $20.50. |
Sources
12 sources, 9 of them public records
Public records
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 13, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · July 16, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Apr. 21, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: 2025 results and 2026 outlookSEC EDGAR · Jan. 27, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 10-K for 2025SEC EDGAR · March 2, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Aug. 10, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026SEC EDGAR · May 5, 2026
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025SEC EDGAR · Oct. 28, 2025
- UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2025 resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 28, 2025
Reporting
- UnitedHealth third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptInvesting.com · Oct. 13, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for UNH, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 12, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for UNHKeyVex · through Oct. 12, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to UnitedHealth's close at the start of the range shown. The Oct. 12 close of $378.52 is 33.9% above the Jan. 27 close of $282.70 and 10.6% below the July 16 close of $423.38. The Jan. 27 move is from the Jan. 26 close of $351.64. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's UnitedHealth stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Adjusted EPS is UnitedHealth's own non-GAAP measure; the company reconciles it to GAAP in each release. GAAP EPS for the third quarter was $4.56, and the company's GAAP outlook for 2026 is at least $19.50.
- The medical care ratio without reserve development is KeyVex's math: the release reports third-quarter medical costs of $76,982 million on premiums of $87,078 million (88.4%). Adding back the $610 million gives $77,592 million, or about 89.1%. A year earlier, medical costs of $79,958 million on premiums of $88,979 million gave 89.9%, a quarter that included $80 million of favorable development.
- Two measures of reserve development appear in UnitedHealth's filings, and this story keeps them apart. The earnings releases give a figure for each quarter that can include revisions to the current year's claims ($80 million in the third quarter of 2025, $860 million in the second quarter of 2026, $610 million in the third). The 10-Q and 10-K tables of medical costs payable give only revisions to prior years' claims (the "Prior years" line): $1,050 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $1,250 million in the first half, against $320 million in the first half of 2025, $30 million in the first nine months of 2025, $140 million in all of 2025, $700 million in 2024 and $840 million in 2023. The two are not added together or compared with each other. The third-quarter 2025 release does not say which year's care its $80 million covered, so it is not compared with the $610 million either. Any third-quarter 2026 development on earlier years' claims will appear in the third-quarter 10-Q, not yet filed when this story was written; the ratio math removes only the $610 million.
- The $610 million is about 11% of third-quarter earnings before income taxes of $5,524 million, by KeyVex's math.
- The fourth-quarter figure is KeyVex's math: the outlook of at least $20.50 in adjusted EPS, less $18.30 earned in the first nine months ($7.23, $6.38 and $4.69), leaves at least $2.20. UnitedHealth's release gives a full-year floor only, no fourth-quarter forecast.
- Call quotes are from Investing.com's transcript of the Oct. 13 call.