Seagate's drive count was flat. Toshiba reportedly plans to double drive-making capacity
Seagate and Western Digital each fell about 10% on Oct. 2, a drop outlets tied to a Nikkei report on Toshiba's plan to double its hard-drive production capacity. Both U.S. makers' gross margins rose about 10 points last fiscal year.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public records
STX$848.99▼ 10.2%Close, Oct. 2. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- The three biggest hard-drive makers are Seagate, Western Digital and Toshiba. Seagate shipped about a third more storage last fiscal year, its 10-K shows; its finance chief said its drive count was "absolutely flat."
- Western Digital sold 25% more storage at 8% more per unit of storage. Each company's gross margin, the share of sales left after production costs, rose about 10 percentage points.
- Toshiba plans to double its capacity to make drives, Nikkei reported. Rosenblatt saw a bid to win back market share and a medium-term risk, Stocktwits reported.
- Citi's Asiya Merchant said the market may be overstating it, Investing.com reported: Toshiba relies on outside suppliers for key parts, and they would have to expand too.
- Seagate's next results cover the quarter that ended Oct. 2. In July it forecast revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
The report: Seagate Technology and Western Digital each closed down about 10% on Oct. 2.Chart dataPrices Outlets tied the drop to a report in Nikkei, the Japanese business daily, that Toshiba plans to double its hard-drive production capacity. Investing.com carried it late Oct. 1, New York time.Investing.comStocktwits Toshiba plans to spend about 60 billion yen at its plants in the Philippines, Nikkei reported, according to Investing.com.Investing.comastig.ph
The other two: Seagate and Western Digital have described a different path: more storage without more drive-making capacity. The disks and heads per Seagate drive "probably grew between 15% and 20%, and the units were absolutely flat," finance chief Gianluca Romano said of last year on its July 28 call.Transcript At Western Digital, delivering more storage "does not require spending CapEx to add unit capacity, but we are making the necessary investments in our heads and media operations," finance chief Kris Sennesael said on Aug. 5, according to two transcripts. CapEx is spending on plants and equipment.TranscriptTranscript
Why it matters: Both companies' results describe the same year: more storage sold, at higher prices per unit of storage, in what Western Digital's chief executive called a "very tight supply environment." Each one's gross margin rose about 10 percentage points.Transcript10-KResults Toshiba's plan, as reported, adds drive-making capacity. It would be its first major drive investment in about five years, Nikkei reported, according to Investing.com.Investing.com At about $380 million, it is less than either rival spent on property and equipment in its last fiscal year, their annual reports show.10-K10-K The figures are not like for like: Toshiba's covers one expansion, while each rival's is a full year of company-wide equipment spending.
Seagate's stock and the hard-drive storyDaily close, July 1 to Oct. 2, 2026 ▼ 7.2%Show chartHide chart
- 1July 28, 2026 Seagate reports its fiscal year. After the close. Its finance chief says drive units were flat while the disks and heads per drive probably grew 15% to 20%.
- 2Aug. 4, 2026 Seagate files its 10-K. 789 exabytes shipped, up from 595; $569 million spent on property and equipment.
- 3Aug. 5, 2026 Western Digital reports. After the close. Its finance chief says delivering more storage does not require capital spending to add unit capacity, though it is investing in heads and media, according to two transcripts.
- 4Oct. 2, 2026 The Toshiba report. Nikkei reports Toshiba's plan to double its hard-drive production capacity. Seagate closes down 10.2% at $848.99.
View the data (66 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $848.99 | −10.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | $945.57 | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | $922.34 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | $913.45 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-28 | $921.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | $916.83 | +1.2% |
| 2026-09-24 | $905.92 | −1.9% |
| 2026-09-23 | $923.86 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | $919.84 | +4.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | $877.33 | +2.2% |
| 2026-09-18 | $858.79 | +6.9% |
| 2026-09-17 | $803.13 | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-16 | $783.18 | +1.5% |
| 2026-09-15 | $771.81 | −4.2% |
| 2026-09-14 | $805.55 | −3.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | $830.17 | −3.7% |
| 2026-09-10 | $862.33 | −2.7% |
| 2026-09-09 | $885.92 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | $904.38 | +6.5% |
| 2026-09-04 | $849.28 | +6.3% |
| 2026-09-03 | $798.61 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-02 | $808.54 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | $816.64 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-31 | $828.38 | −0.2% |
| 2026-08-28 | $829.76 | −2.1% |
| 2026-08-27 | $847.20 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | $846.37 | +3.0% |
| 2026-08-25 | $821.67 | +3.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | $794.65 | −6.5% |
| 2026-08-21 | $850.00 | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-20 | $850.24 | +2.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | $832.56 | −7.9% |
| 2026-08-18 | $903.68 | −9.2% |
| 2026-08-17 | $994.79 | +2.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | $973.44 | +5.7% |
| 2026-08-13 | $921.37 | +4.9% |
| 2026-08-12 | $878.21 | +7.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | $820.52 | +2.4% |
| 2026-08-10 | $800.99 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-07 | $812.76 | −4.7% |
| 2026-08-06 | $852.95 | +1.8% |
| 2026-08-05 | $837.66 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-04 | $845.35 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-03 | $831.06 | −2.9% |
| 2026-07-31 | $856.13 | +0.5% |
| 2026-07-30 | $851.68 | +11.4% |
| 2026-07-29 | $764.43 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-28 | $747.30 | −8.5% |
| 2026-07-27 | $816.99 | −4.1% |
| 2026-07-24 | $851.69 | −6.8% |
| 2026-07-23 | $913.36 | +0.6% |
| 2026-07-22 | $908.10 | +1.8% |
| 2026-07-21 | $891.83 | +11.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | $802.45 | +1.9% |
| 2026-07-17 | $787.66 | +5.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | $745.49 | −10.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | $828.30 | −5.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | $878.31 | +2.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | $860.66 | −5.5% |
| 2026-07-10 | $910.34 | +2.3% |
| 2026-07-09 | $890.09 | +3.5% |
| 2026-07-08 | $860.02 | +3.9% |
| 2026-07-07 | $827.64 | −4.7% |
| 2026-07-06 | $868.26 | +5.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | $820.16 | −10.4% |
| 2026-07-01 | $915.19 |
Seagate's highest close in the ten years shown was $1,094.04, on June 22, 2026. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
How the two grew
Seagate shipped 789 exabytes of storage in the year to July 3, about a third more than the 595 it shipped a year earlier. That year had 53 weeks, one more than the year before. An exabyte is a billion gigabytes.10-K Revenue rose 34% to $12.2 billion. Its annual report, the 10-K, credits that mainly to more exabytes of its high-capacity nearline drives "and favorable pricing actions."10-K It credits the margin gain mainly to pricing and a shift to higher-capacity products.10-K
Western Digital's revenue rose 36% to $12.9 billion. Its 10-K says that came from a 25% rise in exabytes sold and an 8% rise in the average price per exabyte.10-KResults
Asked about pricing by a Morgan Stanley analyst, Romano said "the gap between supply and demand is now a little bit bigger than few quarters ago."Transcript Chief executive Dave Mosley said long-term supply agreements now cover most of Seagate's nearline output into calendar 2028, with contracts that set pricing terms for all of calendar 2027.Transcript Western Digital's chief executive, Irving Tan, said the tight market "provides us an opportunity for increased pricing leverage."Transcript
View the data
| Gross margin | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Seagate (fiscal 2025) | 35.2% | GAAP gross margin, year to June 27, 2025 |
| Seagate (fiscal 2026) | 45.6% | GAAP gross margin, year to July 3, 2026: up 10.4 points |
| Western Digital (fiscal 2025) | 38.8% | GAAP gross margin, year to June 27, 2025 |
| Western Digital (fiscal 2026) | 48.9% | GAAP gross margin, year to July 3, 2026: up 10.1 points |
Gross margin is the share of revenue left after the cost of making the products. Seagate's rose 10.4 points, Western Digital's 10.1. Sources: Seagate and Western Digital fiscal 2026 results, filed with Forms 8-K on July 28 and Aug. 5, 2026.
Toshiba's plan, in dollars
Toshiba has just over 10% of the market by storage capacity and aims for 30% over the medium term, Nikkei reported, according to Investing.com and astig.ph.Investing.comastig.ph New lines would make drives holding up to 40% more per unit, the report said.Investing.com
Outlets converted the 60 billion yen to about $380 million. Seagate paid $569 million for property and equipment in its last fiscal year, and Western Digital $418 million.10-K10-K Both expect to spend more in fiscal 2027: Seagate within 4% to 6% of revenue, Western Digital on its "heads and media operations" and automation.10-K10-K Heads read and write the data; media are the magnetic disks that hold it.
Toshiba's reported plan is smaller than either rival's yearly equipment spendingShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Amount | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| Seagate (property and equipment, fiscal 2026) | $569 million | Purchases of property, equipment and leasehold improvements, year to July 3, 2026 (10-K) |
| Western Digital (property, plant and equipment, fiscal 2026) | $418 million | Purchases of property, plant and equipment, year to July 3, 2026 (10-K) |
| Toshiba (planned hard-drive expansion, as reported) | $380 million | About 60 billion yen, as Nikkei reported; outlets converted it to about $380 million (one Investing.com piece: $400 million) |
Not like for like: the two U.S. figures cover a whole year's equipment spending; Toshiba's is one expansion plan, running to its fiscal 2027. Sources: Seagate and Western Digital 10-Ks; Nikkei, as reported by Investing.com.
What analysts said
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant said the market may be overstating the impact of Toshiba's plan, Investing.com reported. Toshiba depends on outside suppliers for critical components, she said, and they would have to raise output too.Investing.com Seagate's 10-K says it makes many of its own critical technologies, "including read/write heads, magnetic recording media."10-K The same filing says it relies on one or a few suppliers for some parts it does not make, including substrates for recording media and read/write heads.10-K
Morgan Stanley argued that the gap between supply and demand through 2028 still looks wider than Toshiba's planned addition, Stocktwits reported. Rosenblatt saw the plan less as a broad supply surge than as a bid to win back share toward Toshiba's 30% goal, though still a medium-term risk, according to the same report. Analysts at all three firms largely treated the drop as overdone, Stocktwits reported.Stocktwits
The stocks after the drop
Seagate closed at $848.99 on Oct. 2, still up 208% for the year. Western Digital closed at $415.29, up 141%.Chart dataPrices By KeyVex's math, from the share counts in their annual reports, the two lost about $39 billion in market value that day.10-K10-K
It was not either stock's worst day this year. Seagate fell 12.2% on June 26, and Western Digital fell 13.2% that day and 13.0% on Aug. 6.Prices
Neither Seagate nor Western Digital had filed anything with the SEC about Toshiba's plan as of Oct. 4. Nikkei reported that Toshiba aims to double its capacity by its fiscal 2027.Investing.com
Also in the filings
Separately, Seagate's chief executive, Dave Mosley, exercised 14,000 options and sold 30,000 Seagate shares on Oct. 1 for about $27.7 million, his two Form 4s show. The sales were made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan he adopted on Feb. 18, 2026, a schedule set in advance.Form 4Form 4
What to watch
Seagate's results for the quarter that ended Oct. 2. In July it forecast revenue of $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
Western Digital's first fiscal 2027 quarter. In August it forecast revenue up 42% to 49% from a year earlier.
Seagate's contracts set product configuration and pricing terms for the whole year, it said on July 28.
Toshiba's target for doubling its hard-drive production capacity, as Nikkei reported it.
The paper trail
The company filings this story cites, July 28 through Oct. 2, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each one.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 28, 4:07 p.m. | 8-K | Seagate | Fiscal fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results; forecast of $4.1 billion in revenue for the next quarter. |
| Aug. 4, 4:42 p.m. | 10-K | Seagate | 789 exabytes shipped; $569 million of property and equipment purchases; makes many of its own heads and media. |
| Aug. 5, 4:04 p.m. | 8-K | Western Digital | Fiscal 2026 results; revenue forecast up 42% to 49%. |
| Aug. 14, 4:20 p.m. | 10-K | Western Digital | Exabytes sold up 25%, price per exabyte up 8%; $418 million of equipment purchases. |
| Oct. 2, 4:07 p.m. | 4 (x2) | Dave Mosley | Two Form 4s: Seagate's chief executive reports selling 30,000 shares on Oct. 1 under a trading plan adopted Feb. 18, 2026. |
Sources
17 sources, 8 of them public records
Public records
- Seagate Technology Holdings plc, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 3, 2026SEC EDGAR · Aug. 4, 2026
- Seagate Technology Holdings plc, Form 8-K: fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · July 28, 2026
- Seagate, "Seagate Technology Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results" (Exhibit 99.1)SEC EDGAR · July 28, 2026
- Western Digital Corp., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 3, 2026SEC EDGAR · Aug. 14, 2026
- Western Digital Corp., Form 8-K: fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Aug. 5, 2026
- Western Digital, "WD Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results" (Exhibit 99.1)SEC EDGAR · Aug. 5, 2026
- Form 4, William D. Mosley (Seagate), Oct. 1, 2026 option exercise and salesSEC EDGAR · Oct. 2, 2026
- Form 4, William D. Mosley (Seagate), Oct. 1, 2026 sales, continuedSEC EDGAR · Oct. 2, 2026
Reporting
- Seagate fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call, corrected transcript (FactSet CallStreet), posted on Seagate's investor siteSeagate · July 28, 2026
- "Earnings call transcript: Western Digital beats Q4 2026 estimates, shares fall"Investing.com · Aug. 5, 2026
- Western Digital Q4 2026 earnings call transcriptMarketBeat · Aug. 2026
- "Toshiba to double hard disk output capacity amid AI data centre demand - Nikkei"Investing.com · Oct. 1, 2026
- "Seagate and Western Digital shares fall on Toshiba HDD expansion"Investing.com · Oct. 2, 2026
- "Toshiba to double hard drive output at its Laguna plant to feed the AI data center boom"astig.ph · Oct. 2026
- "STX, WDC Stocks Sink On Toshiba's Reported Plan To Double AI Hard-Disk Capacity: Analysts Call The Drop Overdone"Stocktwits · Oct. 2, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for STX and WDC, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 2, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for STXKeyVex · through Oct. 2, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. Daily moves are close to close: Seagate $945.57 to $848.99 (down 10.21%), Western Digital $462.56 to $415.29 (down 10.22%). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased to Seagate's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Seagate page, a selection of filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Market value lost: each company's share count on its 10-K cover (Seagate 226,644,518 as of July 31, 2026; Western Digital 360,540,944 as of Aug. 7, 2026). Each count times the Oct. 1 to Oct. 2 change in its close gives about $21.9 billion and $17.0 billion. Both have issued some shares since, in exchanges of convertible notes, so the total is approximate.
- Toshiba's spending: Nikkei's figure is about 60 billion yen. Investing.com, astig.ph and Startup Fortune converted it to about $380 million; a second Investing.com piece used $400 million. The comparison with Seagate's $569 million and Western Digital's $418 million holds at either figure. The two U.S. amounts are cash paid for property and equipment in the fiscal year ended July 3, 2026, from each 10-K's cash-flow statement.
- Both companies' fiscal 2026 ran 53 weeks, ending July 3, 2026, against 52 weeks in fiscal 2025, which adds slightly to every year-over-year change and to the spending totals. Gross margins are GAAP, from each company's fiscal 2026 results release. Year-to-date changes run from the Dec. 31, 2025 close (Seagate $275.39, Western Digital $172.27).