NKE$33.87▼ 3.6%At $0.41 a quarter, Nike's dividend tops its whole earnings forecast for the year
Nike forecast lower sales on Oct. 1 and set out a cost plan, Pace, with about $1 billion of charges, mostly severance, through fiscal 2031. Its chief financial officer said most of the savings arrive in fiscal 2029 and 2030.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public recordsNKE$33.87▼ 3.6%Close, Oct. 2. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Nike's forecast for adjusted earnings this fiscal year is $1.15 to $1.35 a share. At the $0.41 a quarter it last declared, its dividend comes to $1.64 a year.
- In every fiscal year from 2016 through 2026, Nike's earnings per share topped its dividends. Earnings per share fell 44% from fiscal 2022 to 2026, while the dividend rose every year.
- Nike expects Pace to save about $2.5 billion through fiscal 2031, before charges. Decisions on which jobs go begin in calendar 2027, its chief executive told employees, AFP reported.
- Asked on the Oct. 1 call where the dividend ranks, chief financial officer David Denton called it "a very significant priority."
- Nike plans to set out a financial framework for the next five years at an Investor Day in November, Denton said.
The forecast: Nike's earnings forecast for this fiscal year, released after the market closed on Oct. 1, is $1.15 to $1.35 a share.8-K That is adjusted earnings, which leave out about $0.15 a share of charges from a cost plan it calls Pace.8-K
The dividend: Nike declared a dividend of $0.41 a share for the quarter ended Aug. 31. Four quarters at that rate come to $1.64, more than the top of the forecast.10-Q
The record: In every fiscal year from 2016 through 2026, Nike's diluted earnings per share were higher than the dividends it declared, its annual reports show.10-K10-K10-K
The plan: Nike also said its revenue would fall by a high-single-digit percentage this fiscal year, which runs through May 2027.8-K Pace carries about $1 billion of charges, mostly severance, through fiscal 2031. The filing, a Form 8-K current report, does not say how many jobs will go.8-K
The stock: Nike's stock closed at $33.87 on Oct. 2, down 3.6% on the day.Chart data It had closed at $74.57 a year earlier, on Oct. 2, 2025.Chart data
Nike's stock and the year's key datesDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 2, 2026 ▼ 46.5%Show chartHide chart
- 1March 5, 2026 Nike files notice of about $300 million in severance charges. Its management approved the plan on Feb. 27. With earlier actions, the charges are mostly severance.
- 2April 1, 2026 The day after Nike's results for the quarter ended Feb. 28. The stock closes at $44.63, down 15.5%.
- 3June 23, 2026 Nike names David Denton chief financial officer. He had been Pfizer's chief financial officer since 2022.
- 4June 30, 2026 Nike reports fiscal 2026 results. Diluted earnings: $2.10 a share for the year ended May 31. Dividends declared: $1.63.
- 5Oct. 1, 2026 Nike announces Pace and its fiscal 2027 outlook, after the close. Revenue to decline high-single digits; adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.35 a share.
- 6Oct. 2, 2026 Nike files its quarterly report, after the close. The stock closed down 3.6% that day.
View the data (189 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $33.87 | −3.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | $35.15 | −0.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | $35.40 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | $35.84 | −1.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | $36.39 | +1.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | $35.75 | −0.7% |
| 2026-09-24 | $35.99 | −0.2% |
| 2026-09-23 | $36.05 | −0.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | $36.10 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | $36.10 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-18 | $35.51 | −2.3% |
| 2026-09-17 | $36.36 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-16 | $35.78 | −1.2% |
| 2026-09-15 | $36.22 | −2.2% |
| 2026-09-14 | $37.05 | +0.7% |
| 2026-09-11 | $36.80 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-10 | $36.62 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-09 | $37.35 | −2.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | $38.10 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-04 | $38.40 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | $38.77 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | $38.24 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-01 | $38.12 | −2.4% |
| 2026-08-31 | $39.06 | −1.4% |
| 2026-08-28 | $39.60 | +3.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $38.44 | −0.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | $38.59 | −2.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | $39.48 | −3.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | $40.75 | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-21 | $40.76 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-20 | $40.21 | −2.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | $41.05 | +2.5% |
| 2026-08-18 | $40.06 | +2.5% |
| 2026-08-17 | $39.09 | −4.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | $40.73 | −1.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | $41.23 | +1.8% |
| 2026-08-12 | $40.51 | −2.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | $41.32 | −1.9% |
| 2026-08-10 | $42.11 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | $41.70 | −0.7% |
| 2026-08-06 | $42.00 | −1.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | $42.45 | +2.2% |
| 2026-08-04 | $41.53 | −2.6% |
| 2026-08-03 | $42.64 | +2.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | $41.71 | −1.4% |
| 2026-07-30 | $42.29 | −2.2% |
| 2026-07-29 | $43.22 | +0.4% |
| 2026-07-28 | $43.05 | +2.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | $42.14 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07-24 | $41.70 | +1.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | $40.99 | −2.9% |
| 2026-07-22 | $42.21 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-21 | $42.96 | −1.2% |
| 2026-07-20 | $43.47 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-17 | $43.76 | −1.8% |
| 2026-07-16 | $44.57 | +4.2% |
| 2026-07-15 | $42.77 | −0.2% |
| 2026-07-14 | $42.86 | −2.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | $43.76 | −1.4% |
| 2026-07-10 | $44.37 | +3.7% |
| 2026-07-09 | $42.78 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-08 | $42.89 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-07 | $43.21 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-06 | $43.34 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-02 | $44.09 | +2.4% |
| 2026-07-01 | $43.06 | +4.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | $41.05 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | $41.48 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-26 | $40.75 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-25 | $40.90 | −2.2% |
| 2026-06-24 | $41.82 | −1.3% |
| 2026-06-23 | $42.38 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-22 | $43.19 | −4.4% |
| 2026-06-18 | $45.20 | +2.3% |
| 2026-06-17 | $44.19 | −1.9% |
| 2026-06-16 | $45.04 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-15 | $45.20 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-12 | $44.93 | −2.2% |
| 2026-06-11 | $45.96 | +4.5% |
| 2026-06-10 | $43.96 | −1.5% |
| 2026-06-09 | $44.65 | +3.3% |
| 2026-06-08 | $43.23 | +0.6% |
| 2026-06-05 | $42.98 | −1.5% |
| 2026-06-04 | $43.62 | −0.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | $43.81 | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-02 | $43.73 | −4.8% |
| 2026-06-01 | $45.93 | −0.6% |
| 2026-05-29 | $46.23 | −2.4% |
| 2026-05-28 | $47.37 | +3.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | $45.98 | +2.3% |
| 2026-05-26 | $44.94 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-22 | $44.67 | +0.6% |
| 2026-05-21 | $44.39 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-20 | $44.19 | +4.2% |
| 2026-05-19 | $42.42 | −0.4% |
| 2026-05-18 | $42.57 | +1.6% |
| 2026-05-15 | $41.88 | −0.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | $42.02 | −0.8% |
| 2026-05-13 | $42.34 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | $42.35 | −0.1% |
| 2026-05-11 | $42.39 | −4.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | $44.14 | −0.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | $44.41 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $43.88 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | $43.06 | −0.1% |
| 2026-05-04 | $43.09 | −3.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | $44.40 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $44.36 | −0.1% |
| 2026-04-29 | $44.39 | −1.4% |
| 2026-04-28 | $45.03 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-27 | $45.14 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | $44.69 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $44.78 | −2.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | $45.68 | −1.5% |
| 2026-04-21 | $46.39 | −0.2% |
| 2026-04-20 | $46.48 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | $46.03 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-16 | $45.70 | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-15 | $45.44 | +2.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | $44.20 | +3.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | $42.91 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-10 | $42.62 | −3.1% |
| 2026-04-09 | $44.00 | +2.0% |
| 2026-04-08 | $43.13 | +1.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | $42.69 | −3.0% |
| 2026-04-06 | $44.03 | −0.4% |
| 2026-04-02 | $44.19 | −1.0% |
| 2026-04-01 | $44.63 | −15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $52.82 | +3.1% |
| 2026-03-30 | $51.24 | −0.3% |
| 2026-03-27 | $51.37 | −1.3% |
| 2026-03-26 | $52.07 | −1.7% |
| 2026-03-25 | $52.98 | −1.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | $53.49 | +1.5% |
| 2026-03-23 | $52.71 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-20 | $52.37 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | $53.44 | −0.1% |
| 2026-03-18 | $53.47 | −3.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | $55.12 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-16 | $54.79 | +1.5% |
| 2026-03-13 | $53.98 | −0.3% |
| 2026-03-12 | $54.13 | −2.8% |
| 2026-03-11 | $55.70 | −0.7% |
| 2026-03-10 | $56.08 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-09 | $56.53 | −0.8% |
| 2026-03-06 | $57.01 | −1.7% |
| 2026-03-05 | $58.02 | −1.1% |
| 2026-03-04 | $58.64 | −1.3% |
| 2026-03-03 | $59.39 | −2.7% |
| 2026-03-02 | $61.01 | −1.9% |
| 2026-02-27 | $62.18 | −2.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | $63.95 | +0.9% |
| 2026-02-25 | $63.40 | −1.1% |
| 2026-02-24 | $64.09 | +1.6% |
| 2026-02-23 | $63.09 | −3.5% |
| 2026-02-20 | $65.40 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-19 | $65.61 | +0.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $65.55 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $64.82 | +2.7% |
| 2026-02-13 | $63.13 | +3.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $61.10 | −2.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | $62.35 | −1.1% |
| 2026-02-10 | $63.04 | +1.0% |
| 2026-02-09 | $62.41 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-06 | $63.92 | +1.9% |
| 2026-02-05 | $62.70 | −2.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | $64.22 | +5.4% |
| 2026-02-03 | $60.93 | −2.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | $62.18 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-30 | $61.81 | −1.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $62.60 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-28 | $62.24 | −1.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $63.09 | −2.9% |
| 2026-01-26 | $64.99 | −0.1% |
| 2026-01-23 | $65.04 | −0.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | $65.46 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-21 | $65.41 | +2.8% |
| 2026-01-20 | $63.63 | −1.2% |
| 2026-01-16 | $64.38 | −0.3% |
| 2026-01-15 | $64.59 | −1.5% |
| 2026-01-14 | $65.57 | −1.1% |
| 2026-01-13 | $66.30 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | $65.64 | −0.4% |
| 2026-01-09 | $65.92 | +1.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | $65.26 | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-07 | $63.22 | −3.3% |
| 2026-01-06 | $65.35 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-05 | $64.53 | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $63.28 |
Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
Earnings fell. The dividend kept rising.
Nike's fiscal year ends May 31. Its diluted earnings peaked at $3.75 a share in fiscal 2022. They were $2.10 in fiscal 2026, 44% lower. Over the same years, the dividends it declared rose 37%, to $1.63 a share.10-K10-K The fiscal 2026 figure includes a $986 million benefit for recovering tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unauthorized. Nike says that largely offset the costs of those tariffs that it recognized that year.10-K
View the data
| Fiscal year (ends May 31) | Diluted earnings per share | Dividends declared per share |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $2.10 | $1.63 |
| FY2025 | $2.16 | $1.57 |
| FY2024 | $3.73 | $1.45 |
| FY2023 | $3.23 | $1.325 |
| FY2022 | $3.75 | $1.19 |
| FY2021 | $3.56 | $1.07 |
| FY2020 | $1.60 | $0.955 |
| FY2019 | $2.49 | $0.86 |
| FY2018 | $1.17 | $0.78 |
| FY2017 | $2.51 | $0.70 |
| FY2016 | $2.16 | $0.62 |
Diluted earnings per share and dividends declared per common share, as reported. Sources: Nike Form 10-Ks for fiscal 2020, 2023 and 2026.
This year's forecast is on a different basis: adjusted earnings, which leave out restructuring and severance charges. Diluted earnings, which include them, would be lower by the Pace charges.8-K
This year's forecast against the dividendShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Per share | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend at the current rate ($0.41 a quarter, four quarters) | $1.64 | KeyVex's math: 4 x $0.41 declared for the quarter ended Aug. 31 |
| Fiscal 2027 forecast, top (Adjusted earnings per share) | $1.35 | Excludes about $0.15 of Pace charges |
| Fiscal 2027 forecast, bottom (Adjusted earnings per share) | $1.15 | Excludes about $0.15 of Pace charges |
| Fiscal 2026, actual (Diluted earnings per share) | $2.10 | Year ended May 31, 2026 |
The forecast is Nike's own, from its Oct. 1 release, and excludes about $0.15 a share of Pace charges. The dividend line multiplies the $0.41 declared for the quarter ended Aug. 31 by four, assuming the rate does not change.
What Pace costs, and when it pays
Pace folds in a cost plan Nike's management approved in February and disclosed in March. With earlier actions, it cost about $300 million in fiscal 2026, mostly severance.8-K8-K Pace's own charges come on top: about $300 million this fiscal year and the rest through fiscal 2031.8-K
The plan includes a new campus in India, changes to the supply chain and a reorganization into three regions in fiscal 2028.10-Q Decisions on which jobs are affected "will begin in calendar year 2027 and beyond," chief executive Elliott Hill told employees, Agence France-Presse reported.AFP
Nike expects the plan to save about $2.5 billion in total through fiscal 2031, before the charges and any reinvestment.8-K "We have begun taking actions and expect the majority of the program savings to be realized in fiscal years '29 and '30," David Denton said on the Oct. 1 call. He became chief financial officer in August.Call8-K
Apart from Pace, Nike is cutting the supply of some footwear and marking down inventory, its quarterly report says. The report, a Form 10-Q filed after the close on Oct. 2, says more actions in its Sportswear and Jordan businesses, and in Greater China, are expected to run past fiscal 2027 and to keep hurting revenue and profit.10-Q
What Nike pays out, and what it holds
In fiscal 2026, Nike's operations brought in $2.87 billion of cash, and it paid $2.41 billion in dividends. It spent $146 million on buybacks, down from about $3 billion a year earlier.10-K It paused repurchases in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and bought none in the quarter ended Aug. 31, its quarterly report says.10-Q
Nike held $8.4 billion of cash and short-term investments on Aug. 31. Nike said that, with cash from operations and access to outside funds, this will cover its capital needs for the next 12 months and beyond.10-Q
On the call, Michael Binetti of Evercore ISI said he thought that at the forecast's midpoint, Nike would pay out more than 100% of its earnings in dividends. He asked where the dividend ranks, given the business's investment needs. Denton called it "a very significant priority."Call
Under all scenarios, we have support for maintaining and ultimately growing the dividend over time.
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, called the outlook "shabby," AFP reported. "Nike's brand heat continues to fade," he said.AFP
Denton said Nike would give "a financial algorithm" at its Investor Day in November, covering the next five years of sales and profit.Call
What to watch
Nike's Investor Day, where the CFO said it will give "a financial algorithm" for the next five years.
Decisions on which jobs Pace affects begin, Hill told employees.
Nike's move to three regions: the Americas, Asia Pacific and Greater China, and Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Pace's charges are to be substantially incurred, and its $2.5 billion savings estimate runs through this year, by Nike's estimate.
The paper trail
Nike's filings on Pace and its outlook, March 5 through Oct. 2, 2026.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 5 | 8-K | Nike | Item 2.05: a plan approved Feb. 27 that, with earlier actions, was expected to cost about $300 million, mostly severance. |
| June 23 | 8-K | Nike | David Denton named chief financial officer. |
| July 15 | 10-K | Nike | Fiscal 2026: diluted EPS of $2.10, dividends declared of $1.63 a share, $146 million of buybacks. |
| Oct. 1, 4:15 p.m. | 8-K | Nike | Results for the quarter ended Aug. 31; Pace, with about $1 billion of charges and $2.5 billion of savings through fiscal 2031. |
| Oct. 2, 4:15 p.m. | 10-Q | Nike | Sportswear, Jordan and Greater China actions to run past fiscal 2027; no buybacks in the quarter. |
Sources
12 sources, 8 of them public records
Public records
- Nike Inc., Form 8-K: Items 2.02 and 2.05 (Pace)SEC EDGAR · Oct. 1, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fiscal 2027 first-quarter resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 1, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 2, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 8-K, Item 2.05 (cost plan approved Feb. 27, 2026)SEC EDGAR · March 5, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 8-K, Item 5.02 (David Denton named CFO)SEC EDGAR · June 23, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal 2026SEC EDGAR · July 15, 2026
- Nike Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal 2023SEC EDGAR · July 20, 2023
- Nike Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 (selected financial data, 2016 to 2020)SEC EDGAR · July 24, 2020
Reporting
- Nike Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript, Oct. 1, 2026The Motley Fool · Oct. 2, 2026
- "Nike plans job cuts as it forecasts lower sales" (Agence France-Presse, as syndicated)The Manila Times · Oct. 2, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for NKE, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 2, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for NKEKeyVex · through Oct. 2, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. Daily moves are close to close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Nike's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Nike stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- Nike's fiscal year ends May 31. Earnings per share are diluted, as reported, and dividends are dividends declared per common share, as reported in Nike's 10-Ks: fiscal 2016 to 2020 from the fiscal 2020 10-K's selected financial data, 2021 to 2023 from the fiscal 2023 10-K, and 2024 to 2026 from the fiscal 2026 10-K.
- The $1.64 dividend figure is KeyVex's math: the $0.41 declared for the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026, times four. It assumes the quarterly rate does not change. Nike's fiscal 2027 forecast is for adjusted diluted earnings per share, which excludes restructuring and severance charges; the forecast excludes about $0.15 a share of Pace charges.
- Percentage changes in earnings and dividends compare fiscal 2026 with fiscal 2022: $2.10 against $3.75, and $1.63 against $1.19.