GPC$123.52▼ 5.1%Genuine Parts' year still grows at $7.50. Its fourth quarter, at $1.51, does not
Genuine Parts cut the top of its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast on Oct. 20; its finance chief said it expects to finish toward the low end. At the $7.50 floor, KeyVex's math shows a fourth quarter below last year's.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 7 public recordsKeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 7 public recordsGPC$123.52▼ 5.1%Close, Oct. 20. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- A forecast range usually leaves room on both sides. Since February, Genuine Parts' 2026 range for adjusted earnings, which leave out costs such as restructuring and its planned split, has started at $7.50 a share.
- On Oct. 20 it cut the top to $7.75 from $8.00 and said it expects to finish toward the low end.
- It earned $5.99 a share through September, so $7.50 for the year would leave $1.51 for the fourth quarter, below last year's $1.55. A year of $7.55 or more would beat it, by KeyVex's math.
- Only one of its three segments posted lower segment profit than a year earlier: North America Automotive, part of the business that keeps the Genuine Parts name in a split planned for early 2027.
- Next on the record: investor days in New York in December, where the finance chief said the company would discuss each business's earnings power.
The news: Genuine Parts, a distributor of automotive and industrial replacement parts, reported higher third-quarter adjusted earnings on Oct. 20 and cut the top of its 2026 forecast.8-K The range, for adjusted earnings per share that leave out items such as restructuring and separation costs, is now $7.50 to $7.75, from $7.50 to $8.00.8-K The stock closed down 5.1% at $123.52 that day, its biggest one-day drop since Feb. 17.Chart data
The low end: Only the top of the range came down. On the call that morning, finance chief Bert Nappier said the company expects to finish the year "towards the lower end of the narrowed range," according to a transcript published by The Motley Fool.CallCall
Why it matters: That points to the lower part of the range. Through September, Genuine Parts earned $5.99 a share in adjusted profit, so $7.50 for the year would leave $1.51 for the fourth quarter.8-K A year earlier it earned $1.55 in that quarter, itself down from $1.61 the year before.8-K A full year of $7.55 or more would put the fourth quarter above that, by KeyVex's math. The year as a whole, at $7.50, would still top the $7.37 of 2025.8-K
The split: Of its three segments, only North America Automotive posted lower segment profit than a year earlier.8-K It is part of the automotive business that keeps the Genuine Parts name when the company splits in two, a separation it targets for the first quarter of 2027.10-Q8-K The industrial business becomes Motion.8-KCall
Genuine Parts' stock and its 2026 forecast datesDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 20, 2026 ▼ 0.4%Show chartHide chart
- 1Feb. 17, 2026 2026 forecast of $7.50 to $8.00, and the plan to split. Adjusted earnings per share forecast set; the standard-accounting (GAAP) forecast is $6.10 to $6.60. Genuine Parts closes down 14.6% at $125.74.
- 2April 21, 2026 First-quarter results; the forecast is reaffirmed. Genuine Parts closes at $115.00.
- 3July 21, 2026 Adjusted forecast reaffirmed; the standard-accounting (GAAP) forecast cut to $5.90 to $6.40. Genuine Parts closes at $119.12.
- 4Sept. 9, 2026 Court Carruthers named CEO-elect of Genuine Parts. He takes over when the separation closes. Genuine Parts closes at $135.24.
- 5Oct. 20, 2026 Range narrowed to $7.50 to $7.75; the company expects to finish toward the low end. The standard-accounting (GAAP) forecast is cut to $5.60 to $5.85. Genuine Parts closes down 5.1% at $123.52.
View the data (201 trading days)
| Date | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | $123.52 | −5.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | $130.18 | −2.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | $133.96 | +0.3% |
| 2026-10-15 | $133.51 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-14 | $131.63 | +0.7% |
| 2026-10-13 | $130.71 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-12 | $129.62 | +2.0% |
| 2026-10-09 | $127.02 | −0.9% |
| 2026-10-08 | $128.17 | +2.2% |
| 2026-10-07 | $125.41 | −1.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | $127.38 | +0.9% |
| 2026-10-05 | $126.24 | −0.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | $127.24 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | $125.12 | −0.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | $125.74 | −1.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | $126.95 | −0.9% |
| 2026-09-28 | $128.13 | −1.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | $129.61 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-24 | $129.26 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-23 | $128.76 | −0.6% |
| 2026-09-22 | $129.59 | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-21 | $126.45 | −1.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | $128.08 | −2.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | $130.88 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-16 | $130.52 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-15 | $131.01 | −1.7% |
| 2026-09-14 | $133.21 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-11 | $133.68 | −0.4% |
| 2026-09-10 | $134.16 | −0.8% |
| 2026-09-09 | $135.24 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | $134.06 | −2.9% |
| 2026-09-04 | $138.08 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-03 | $137.62 | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-02 | $137.15 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-01 | $134.84 | −0.6% |
| 2026-08-31 | $135.67 | −1.3% |
| 2026-08-28 | $137.51 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-27 | $136.70 | −2.0% |
| 2026-08-26 | $139.49 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | $137.95 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-24 | $135.69 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | $133.96 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08-20 | $132.92 | −1.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | $134.54 | +2.0% |
| 2026-08-18 | $131.89 | −0.5% |
| 2026-08-17 | $132.52 | −1.9% |
| 2026-08-14 | $135.03 | −0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | $135.35 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-12 | $134.01 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-11 | $135.09 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-10 | $134.54 | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-07 | $135.63 | +2.1% |
| 2026-08-06 | $132.79 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | $131.32 | −0.9% |
| 2026-08-04 | $132.55 | +3.1% |
| 2026-08-03 | $128.52 | +3.3% |
| 2026-07-31 | $124.37 | −0.4% |
| 2026-07-30 | $124.83 | −4.0% |
| 2026-07-29 | $129.98 | +0.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | $129.71 | +1.6% |
| 2026-07-27 | $127.70 | +2.8% |
| 2026-07-24 | $124.21 | +3.5% |
| 2026-07-23 | $120.05 | −0.3% |
| 2026-07-22 | $120.37 | +1.0% |
| 2026-07-21 | $119.12 | −2.7% |
| 2026-07-20 | $122.40 | −1.9% |
| 2026-07-17 | $124.82 | −0.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | $125.66 | +3.9% |
| 2026-07-15 | $121.00 | −0.9% |
| 2026-07-14 | $122.16 | −1.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | $123.52 | −1.7% |
| 2026-07-10 | $125.62 | +1.1% |
| 2026-07-09 | $124.27 | −0.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | $124.73 | −3.1% |
| 2026-07-07 | $128.67 | 0.0% |
| 2026-07-06 | $128.66 | −2.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | $132.57 | +12.9% |
| 2026-07-01 | $117.40 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | $117.98 | +0.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | $117.18 | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | $116.02 | +2.7% |
| 2026-06-25 | $112.99 | +2.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | $110.73 | +4.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | $106.47 | +1.3% |
| 2026-06-22 | $105.11 | −3.3% |
| 2026-06-18 | $108.70 | +2.4% |
| 2026-06-17 | $106.12 | −1.1% |
| 2026-06-16 | $107.27 | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-15 | $104.64 | +0.9% |
| 2026-06-12 | $103.75 | +1.5% |
| 2026-06-11 | $102.26 | +3.9% |
| 2026-06-10 | $98.43 | −1.0% |
| 2026-06-09 | $99.41 | +2.4% |
| 2026-06-08 | $97.07 | −1.1% |
| 2026-06-05 | $98.15 | −0.5% |
| 2026-06-04 | $98.63 | +0.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | $98.28 | −1.1% |
| 2026-06-02 | $99.35 | +2.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | $97.26 | −1.5% |
| 2026-05-29 | $98.70 | −0.6% |
| 2026-05-28 | $99.26 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-27 | $98.40 | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | $97.05 | −0.8% |
| 2026-05-22 | $97.87 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-21 | $97.62 | +2.8% |
| 2026-05-20 | $94.97 | +2.7% |
| 2026-05-19 | $92.47 | −0.8% |
| 2026-05-18 | $93.17 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-15 | $92.87 | −4.4% |
| 2026-05-14 | $97.19 | −1.7% |
| 2026-05-13 | $98.87 | −1.9% |
| 2026-05-12 | $100.74 | −0.7% |
| 2026-05-11 | $101.42 | −3.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | $104.72 | −0.5% |
| 2026-05-07 | $105.25 | −0.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $105.49 | +1.2% |
| 2026-05-05 | $104.29 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | $103.52 | −1.4% |
| 2026-05-01 | $104.99 | −2.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $107.23 | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $103.28 | −2.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $105.41 | −1.1% |
| 2026-04-27 | $106.56 | −2.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | $108.74 | −1.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | $109.79 | −1.7% |
| 2026-04-22 | $111.74 | −2.8% |
| 2026-04-21 | $115.00 | +2.1% |
| 2026-04-20 | $112.59 | −1.1% |
| 2026-04-17 | $113.79 | +2.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | $111.18 | +0.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | $110.44 | +0.5% |
| 2026-04-14 | $109.90 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-13 | $109.79 | +2.1% |
| 2026-04-10 | $107.51 | −1.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | $108.56 | +1.1% |
| 2026-04-08 | $107.41 | +3.4% |
| 2026-04-07 | $103.84 | −1.2% |
| 2026-04-06 | $105.15 | +1.6% |
| 2026-04-02 | $103.47 | −1.6% |
| 2026-04-01 | $105.18 | −0.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $105.75 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-30 | $104.35 | −0.6% |
| 2026-03-27 | $105.02 | −0.2% |
| 2026-03-26 | $105.28 | +0.2% |
| 2026-03-25 | $105.12 | +2.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | $103.01 | +1.9% |
| 2026-03-23 | $101.06 | +4.9% |
| 2026-03-20 | $96.38 | −2.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | $99.09 | −1.6% |
| 2026-03-18 | $100.72 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | $102.82 | −1.1% |
| 2026-03-16 | $104.01 | −1.6% |
| 2026-03-13 | $105.74 | −1.2% |
| 2026-03-12 | $107.01 | −2.0% |
| 2026-03-11 | $109.20 | +0.2% |
| 2026-03-10 | $108.96 | −2.6% |
| 2026-03-09 | $111.84 | −3.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | $115.52 | −1.4% |
| 2026-03-05 | $117.11 | +1.3% |
| 2026-03-04 | $115.64 | −0.7% |
| 2026-03-03 | $116.42 | −1.8% |
| 2026-03-02 | $118.55 | −0.6% |
| 2026-02-27 | $119.26 | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | $116.86 | −0.1% |
| 2026-02-25 | $116.92 | −1.6% |
| 2026-02-24 | $118.82 | +2.3% |
| 2026-02-23 | $116.16 | −1.6% |
| 2026-02-20 | $118.06 | −1.1% |
| 2026-02-19 | $119.37 | −1.3% |
| 2026-02-18 | $120.91 | −3.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | $125.74 | −14.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | $147.16 | −0.3% |
| 2026-02-12 | $147.61 | −1.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | $149.26 | +1.8% |
| 2026-02-10 | $146.68 | +0.5% |
| 2026-02-09 | $146.02 | −1.7% |
| 2026-02-06 | $148.51 | +1.6% |
| 2026-02-05 | $146.21 | −1.2% |
| 2026-02-04 | $147.95 | +3.6% |
| 2026-02-03 | $142.84 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-02 | $141.26 | +1.6% |
| 2026-01-30 | $138.99 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-29 | $138.88 | −0.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | $140.02 | +0.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | $139.38 | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-26 | $139.18 | +1.1% |
| 2026-01-23 | $137.63 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | $136.84 | +0.4% |
| 2026-01-21 | $136.24 | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-20 | $131.97 | −3.6% |
| 2026-01-16 | $136.94 | +0.6% |
| 2026-01-15 | $136.16 | +1.8% |
| 2026-01-14 | $133.80 | +1.4% |
| 2026-01-13 | $131.97 | +2.1% |
| 2026-01-12 | $129.21 | +0.7% |
| 2026-01-09 | $128.34 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-08 | $126.73 | +3.4% |
| 2026-01-07 | $122.56 | −1.6% |
| 2026-01-06 | $124.50 | +0.9% |
| 2026-01-05 | $123.38 | −0.5% |
| 2026-01-02 | $124.00 |
The stock's 2026 closing low was $92.47, on May 19. On Oct. 20, as Genuine Parts fell 5.1%, SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, rose 0.3%. Source: Tiingo end-of-day closes, as traded, via KeyVex.
How 2026 compares
Adjusted earnings rose to $2.07 a share in the third quarter from $1.98, and sales rose 4.2% to $6.5 billion.8-K "Our teams delivered on another solid quarter," Nappier said.CallCall
At the top of the new range, $7.75, the fourth quarter would come to $1.76, above last year's. At the bottom it would be about 2.6% below, by KeyVex's math from its releases.8-K8-K
At $7.50, the full year would be up 1.8% from 2025, but still below the $8.16 of 2024.8-K Nappier said the new range is up 3.5% at its midpoint versus 2025.CallCall
View the data
| Adjusted earnings per share | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 forecast (Adjusted earnings per share, narrowed Oct. 20) | $7.50 to $7.75 | $7.50 to $7.75, from $7.50 to $8.00. The company expects to finish towards the lower end. |
| 2025 actual (Adjusted earnings per share) | $7.37 | $7.37, Genuine Parts' 2025 results release |
| 2024 actual (Adjusted earnings per share) | $8.16 | $8.16, Genuine Parts' 2025 results release |
The 2026 band is the range narrowed on Oct. 20. Sources: Genuine Parts' Q3 2026 and full-year 2025 results releases.
Where the squeeze is
North America Automotive's segment EBITDA, a measure of operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, fell 2.9% to $194 million in the quarter, from $200 million. Its margin slipped to 7.6%.8-K The industrial business's rose 11.2% to $317 million, and international automotive's rose 4.7%.8-K
Third-quarter profit change, by Genuine Parts segmentShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Segment | Change in segment EBITDA, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| North America Automotive | -2.9% | $194 million, from $200 million; margin 7.6%, down 0.4 point |
| International Automotive | +4.7% | $141 million, from $135 million; margin 9.0%, flat |
| Industrial (Motion) | +11.2% | $317 million, from $285 million; margin 13.2%, up 0.6 point |
North America Automotive and International Automotive form the business that keeps the Genuine Parts name; Industrial becomes Motion. Source: Genuine Parts' Q3 2026 results release, segment information.
An analyst speaking for UBS's Michael Lasser asked how much of the gap between rising sales and a falling margin was transitory cost pressure "versus a structural change in the earnings power of the business."CallCall
Nappier said the segment's $6 million drop came from operating costs. Freight, fuel and rent rose $15 million, and the company gave NAPA's U.S. hourly workers a merit raise in the summer, he said. Without the inflation-driven costs, he said, the segment's margin would have improved by about 0.2 point.CallCall
He put the cost of what the company calls the Iran conflict at $16 million in the third quarter. For the second half he now expects $30 million to $40 million, up from $20 million to $30 million.CallCall Diesel was up 50% from a year earlier and U.S. unleaded gasoline 30%, he said.CallCall
Motion's outlook drew a question too. D.A. Davidson's Christopher Dankert said its implied fourth-quarter sales outlook "looks a little bit weaker," on a two-year basis and against typical seasonality. "I think we are being a little bit prudent," Nappier answered. "I would not overread anything. Motion's performing very well," he said.Call
The forecast under standard accounting
Genuine Parts also gives a forecast under standard accounting rules, known as GAAP. It counts expected restructuring costs and only the split costs booked so far. That forecast has fallen twice. It started the year at $6.10 to $6.60 a share.8-K In July it became $5.90 to $6.40.8-K On Oct. 20 it became $5.60 to $5.85.8-K
The adjusted floor never moved, so the gap between the two low ends widened from $1.40 a share in February to $1.90, by KeyVex's math. The adjusted forecast leaves out one-time separation costs, Nappier said.CallCall Those costs came to $55 million through September.10-Q
Two companies in early 2027
Will Stengel, the chairman and chief executive, will lead Motion after the split, he said on the call.CallCall Court Carruthers was named chief executive-elect of Genuine Parts in September and takes over when the split closes.8-K
Asked how the quarter changed each company's earnings outlook, Nappier said the company would discuss "the earnings power for each business" at its investor days in New York in December.CallCall
What to watch
Investor days in New York for the automotive business (Dec. 8) and Motion (Dec. 9), where the company said it would discuss each one's earnings power.
The split's target: Genuine Parts keeps the automotive business, and Motion becomes its own public company.
The paper trail
Genuine Parts' filings on the 2026 forecast and the split, Feb. 17 through Oct. 20, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each one. An 8-K reports a major event or results; a 10-Q is the quarterly report.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 17, 7:09 a.m. | 8-K | Genuine Parts | 2025 results; 2026 forecast of $7.50 to $8.00 adjusted, $6.10 to $6.60 GAAP; the plan to split. |
| April 21 | 8-K | Genuine Parts | First-quarter results; the full-year forecast reaffirmed. |
| July 21, 7:34 a.m. | 8-K | Genuine Parts | Adjusted forecast reaffirmed; GAAP forecast cut to $5.90 to $6.40. |
| Sept. 9 | 8-K | Genuine Parts | Court Carruthers appointed chief executive-elect. |
| Oct. 20, 7:47 a.m. | 8-K | Genuine Parts | Third-quarter results; adjusted forecast narrowed to $7.50 to $7.75, GAAP to $5.60 to $5.85. |
| Oct. 20, 11:03 a.m. | 10-Q | Genuine Parts | Quarterly report: the split's terms and $55 million of separation costs through September. |
Sources
11 sources, 7 of them public records
Public records
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter 2026 results and narrowed 2026 outlookSEC EDGAR · Oct. 20, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 20, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 results and updated outlookSEC EDGAR · July 21, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: first-quarter 2026 results, outlook reaffirmedSEC EDGAR · April 21, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and 2026 outlookSEC EDGAR · Feb. 17, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2: plan to separate the automotive and industrial businessesSEC EDGAR · Feb. 17, 2026
- Genuine Parts Co., Form 8-K: appointment of Court Carruthers as chief executive officer-electSEC EDGAR · Sept. 9, 2026
Reporting
- Earnings call transcript: Genuine Parts Q3 2026Investing.com · Oct. 20, 2026
- Genuine Parts (GPC) Q3 2026 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · Oct. 20, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for GPC, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 20, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for GPCKeyVex · through Oct. 20, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends, through Oct. 20, 2026, the last close in KeyVex's data when this story was written. Daily moves are close to close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Genuine Parts' close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Genuine Parts stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider trades, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- The fourth-quarter figures are KeyVex's math: the full-year forecast ($7.50 or $7.75) minus the $5.99 of adjusted earnings per share Genuine Parts reported for the first nine months. $7.50 - $5.99 = $1.51; $7.75 - $5.99 = $1.76. The comparison is with the $1.55 the company reported for the fourth quarter of 2025.
- The gap between the forecasts is the adjusted low end minus the GAAP low end: $7.50 - $6.10 = $1.40 in the Feb. 17 forecast and $7.50 - $5.60 = $1.90 in the Oct. 20 forecast.
- Remarks from the call are checked against two published transcripts, The Motley Fool's and Investing.com's; The Motley Fool says parts of its transcript were made with AI tools. Adjusted figures are the company's own: they leave out restructuring costs, separation costs and other items the company lists in its reconciliations. Segment EBITDA is the company's measure, from the segment table in its results release.