
DAL$82.170.0%Delta's forecast includes 40 cents a gallon from its refinery. Best since 2024: 13 cents.
Delta cut its 2026 profit forecast on Oct. 9, and its finance chief said all of the cut was fuel, Reuters reported. Its October-to-December forecast includes about three times the refinery's best quarter since 2024 began, Delta's releases show.
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 21 public records
KeyVex News··5 min readFact-checked against 21 public records
DAL$82.170.0%Close, Oct. 9. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Delta owns an oil refinery. Its profit offsets part of the airline's fuel bill, and Delta reports that offset each quarter in cents per gallon of jet fuel.
- Since 2024 began, the offset has never topped 13 cents. It reached 31 cents in 2022. Delta's forecast for October to December includes about 40 cents.
- This year Delta's refinery forecasts missed both ways. About $300 million forecast for the June quarter, which had an outage, became about $120 million by KeyVex's math. September: forecast 5 cents, got 13.
- The mechanics: at last quarter's fuel use, each cent of refinery benefit above or below the forecast moves the quarter's fuel bill by about $11.5 million, by KeyVex's math.
- Delta reports results for the December quarter in January.
The cut: Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 profit forecast on Oct. 9, to $5.10 to $5.60 a share in adjusted earnings. In July it had affirmed $6.50 to $7.50.8-K8-K Asked what drove the cut, finance chief Erik Snell told reporters, "All of it is fuel," Reuters reported.Reuters
The refinery: Unlike other major U.S. airlines, Delta owns an oil refinery, Reuters reported. Its Monroe Energy unit runs the Trainer refinery outside Philadelphia, which typically produces about 200,000 barrels of refined products a day.Reuters10-Q8-K Each quarter, Delta reports how much the refinery lowered what it paid per gallon of jet fuel.8-K
The comparison: Delta's forecast for October to December includes a refinery benefit of about 40 cents a gallon. That is about three times the refinery's best quarter since 2024 began, the 13 cents of the quarter just ended.8-KChart data It has done more before: 31 cents in the June 2022 quarter and 25 cents in the March 2023 quarter. No quarter since the start of 2022 reached 40.8-K8-K8-K This year its record against Delta's own forecasts has run both ways: well short in June, a quarter with an outage, and well above in September.8-K8-K
Delta's stock and the refinery's key datesDaily close, Jan. 2 to Oct. 9, 2026 ▲ 19.0%Show chartHide chart
What the refinery has delivered
Of the 11 quarters since 2024 began, the releases report a refinery loss in three and a breakeven in one. From April 2022 through March 2023, it ran from 21 to 31 cents.Chart data This year the benefit rose: 6 cents a gallon from January to March, 11 from April to June, 13 from July to September.8-K8-K8-K
View the data
| Quarter | Refinery benefit per gallon | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 31¢ | "31¢ per gallon benefit" from refinery operating income of $269 million |
| Q3 2022 | 21¢ | Benefit of 21¢ per gallon |
| Q4 2022 | 30¢ | Benefit of 30¢ per gallon |
| Q1 2023 | 25¢ | Benefit of 25¢ per gallon |
| Q2 2023 | 4¢ | Benefit of 4¢ per gallon |
| Q3 2023 | 11¢ | Benefit of 11¢ per gallon |
| Q4 2023 | 0¢ | "breakeven refinery contribution following the planned maintenance at the refinery facilities" |
| Q1 2024 | 5¢ | Benefit of 5¢ per gallon |
| Q2 2024 | 6¢ | Benefit of 6¢ per gallon |
| Q3 2024 | -3¢ | "refinery loss of 3¢ per gallon" |
| Q4 2024 | -4¢ | "refinery loss of 4¢ per gallon" |
| Q1 2025 | 0¢ | "breakeven refinery contribution" |
| Q2 2025 | -1¢ | "refinery loss of 1¢ per gallon" |
| Q3 2025 | 5¢ | Benefit of 5¢ per gallon |
| Q4 2025 | 11¢ | Benefit of 11¢ per gallon |
| Q1 2026 | 6¢ | Benefit of 6¢ per gallon |
| Q2 2026 | 11¢ | 11¢, "inclusive of a 5¢ discrete impact from a temporary refinery outage" |
| Q3 2026 | 13¢ | Benefit of 13¢ per gallon. July's forecast had included 5¢ |
| Q4 2026 forecast | 40¢ | Forecast: "approximately $0.40 per gallon", at the fuel forward curve as of Oct. 2 |
The last column is a forecast, at the fuel forward curve as of Oct. 2, 2026. Sources: Delta's results releases, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, July 2022 through Oct. 9, 2026.
On April 8, Delta said its June-quarter outlook included a refinery benefit of about $300 million.8-K Then a temporary outage halted production in the middle of June, Delta's quarterly report to the SEC, its 10-Q, says.10-Q The June quarter's benefit came to 11 cents a gallon, "inclusive of a 5¢ discrete impact from a temporary refinery outage."8-K Across the 1.1 billion gallons Delta burned that quarter, that is about $120 million, by KeyVex's math.10-Q
The outage also reduced capacity in the September quarter. In that quarter, the refinery segment had an operating loss of $33 million, against income of $53 million a year earlier, Delta's 10-Q shows. It attributes the drop mainly to volatile crude prices and the outage. The two are different measures: the 13 cents is an adjusted figure that leaves out some hedge results tied to the refinery's inventory, and the segment's result includes them.10-Q8-K
In July, Delta forecast September-quarter earnings of $2.00 to $2.50 a share, with a refinery benefit of 5 cents a gallon.8-K The refinery delivered 13. Earnings came in at $1.72 a share. Delta absorbed more than $500 million of fuel costs above its July guidance, Snell said in the release.8-K
What the forecast rests on
Delta's December-quarter forecast is $1.15 to $1.65 a share. It assumes fuel at the forward curve as of Oct. 2, the prices set for future delivery that day, and an all-in price of about $4.25 a gallon, including the refinery's 40 cents.8-K Delta burned 1.146 billion gallons in the September quarter.10-Q At that rate, each 10 cents a gallon is about $115 million, by KeyVex's math.
The refinery helps when the gap between crude oil and refined fuel prices widens, Reuters noted. Its protection "varies with refining margins," and it "can lose money when those margins weaken." Snell called it "a partial offset to fuel prices that no one else does."Reuters On the company's call, Snell said the full-year outlook includes a refinery benefit of more than $700 million. He put the December quarter's at "roughly 3x the September quarter level," with the refinery "now fully online."Call
The forecast also assumes December-quarter revenue grows about 20%, and chief executive Ed Bastian said in the release that "demand remains strong."8-K Deutsche Bank analysts expect the industry to recover a smaller share of higher fuel costs through revenue in the fourth quarter, Reuters reported. They do not expect full recovery until early 2027.Reuters
By the end of September, the refinery was back at normal production, Delta's 10-Q says. Delta expects it "to return to profitability in the December 2026 quarter."10-Q
What to watch
The December quarter, the one the 40-cent refinery forecast covers, ends.
Delta reports December-quarter and full-year results. Last year's came on Jan. 13.
The paper trail
Delta's results filings, Jan. 13 through Oct. 9, 2026, with the time EDGAR accepted each one (Eastern).
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 13, 6:30 a.m. | 8-K | Delta | December-quarter 2025 results: refinery benefit 11 cents a gallon; 4 cents for the year. |
| April 8, 6:30 a.m. | 8-K | Delta | March-quarter results: 6 cents. June-quarter outlook includes a refinery benefit of about $300 million. |
| July 10, 6:30 a.m. | 8-K | Delta | June-quarter results: 11 cents, including a 5-cent outage hit. September-quarter outlook includes 5 cents; full year affirmed at $6.50 to $7.50. |
| July 10, 4:17 p.m. | 10-Q | Delta | 1,122 million gallons of fuel used in the June quarter. |
| Oct. 9, 6:30 a.m. | 8-K | Delta | September-quarter results: 13 cents. December-quarter outlook includes about 40 cents; full year cut to $5.10 to $5.60. |
| Oct. 9, 4:22 p.m. | 10-Q | Delta | Refinery segment operating loss of $33 million after a mid-June outage; return to profitability expected in the December quarter. |
Sources
25 sources, 21 of them public records
Public records
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: September quarter 2026 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 9, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · Oct. 9, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: June quarter 2026 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · July 10, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026SEC EDGAR · July 10, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: March quarter 2026 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · April 8, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: December quarter and full year 2025 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Jan. 13, 2026
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: September quarter 2025 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 9, 2025
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: June quarter 2025 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · July 10, 2025
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: March quarter 2025 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · April 9, 2025
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: December quarter and full year 2024 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Jan. 10, 2025
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: September quarter 2024 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 10, 2024
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: June quarter 2024 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · July 11, 2024
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: March quarter 2024 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · April 10, 2024
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: December quarter and full year 2023 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Jan. 12, 2024
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: September quarter 2023 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 12, 2023
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: June quarter 2023 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · July 13, 2023
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: March quarter 2023 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · April 13, 2023
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: December quarter and full year 2022 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Jan. 13, 2023
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: September quarter 2022 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · Oct. 13, 2022
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: June quarter 2022 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · July 13, 2022
- Delta Air Lines, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: March quarter 2022 financial resultsSEC EDGAR · April 13, 2022
Reporting
- "Delta Air slashes profit forecast as $6 billion fuel-cost surge outstrips fare gains" (Reuters, as syndicated)Reuters, via Hydrocarbon Processing · Oct. 9, 2026
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q3 2026 earnings call transcriptThe Motley Fool · Oct. 9, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for DAL, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 9, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, Form 144, 8-K and lobbying records for DALKeyVex · through Oct. 9, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. Daily moves are close to close. Every Delta close in the chart's Story range is in its data table. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, also as traded, rebased to Delta's close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Delta stock page, a selection of congressional trades, insider sales, Form 144 notices, 8-Ks and lobbying filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- The refinery benefit per gallon is Delta's own figure, as each quarter's results release reported it, inside its adjusted fuel price. The chart starts with the June 2022 quarter; the March 2022 quarter's release reported 7 cents. Delta changed how it treats some refinery hedge results starting in 2026 and says it adjusted earlier periods' reconciliations to match; the chart uses each figure as its own release reported it. The 10-Q's refinery segment operating result is a different, unadjusted measure.
- KeyVex's math: the June-quarter benefit in dollars is 11 cents times 1,122 million gallons, about $123 million (the per-gallon figure is rounded to a cent, so the text says about $120 million). Each 10 cents a gallon at the September quarter's 1,146 million gallons is about $114.6 million.
- Earnings per share figures are Delta's adjusted figures unless the text says otherwise.




