
Black Hills expects its Google deal to provide about half its 2025 profit in 2030
Black Hills said Oct. 6 it will build $1.8 billion of gas generation for a planned Google data center in Wyoming. Its filings show the deal's size beside its 2025 profit, and how a merger ties NorthWestern Energy to it.
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public records
KeyVex News··6 min readFact-checked against 8 public records
BKH$70.74▲ 0.4%Close, Oct. 6. Prices from Tiingo.The short versionTap to readTap to close
- Black Hills earned $291.6 million for its common shareholders in all of 2025, its results show.
- It now expects one project, to power a planned Google data center in Wyoming, to provide about $150 million of net income in 2030. That is about half its 2025 total.
- Black Hills and NorthWestern Energy agreed in 2025 to merge. Each NorthWestern share is to become 0.98 Black Hills share, so NorthWestern's owners would hold about 44% of the combined company.
- The merger still needs Montana's Public Service Commission, its last approval left as of July. A decision is due by Oct. 12 and can be extended to Nov. 10, the Daily Montanan reported.
The deal: Black Hills said after the market closed on Oct. 6 that it had signed agreements to serve a planned Google data center in Cheyenne, Wyoming.8-K The agreements took effect Sept. 30 and run through 2048. Black Hills will spend $1.8 billion from 2027 to 2029 on new natural gas generation to serve the site.8-K
The scale: Black Hills expects the project to provide about $150 million of net income in 2030.8-K That is about half the $291.6 million it earned for common shareholders in all of 2025.8-K Separately, Black Hills has a long-term target of 4% to 6% annual growth in adjusted earnings per share.8-K
The partner: NorthWestern Energy is not named in the Google release.8-K The two companies agreed in August 2025 to merge, with each NorthWestern share to become 0.98 Black Hills share. NorthWestern's owners would then hold about 44% of the combined company.8-K At 1:20 p.m. ET on Oct. 7, both stocks were up about 8.8% from their Oct. 6 closes, on the IEX exchange.IEX quotes As of July, Montana's regulators were the merger's last needed approval, NorthWestern said.Release
Black Hills' stock and the deal's key datesDaily close, Aug. 1, 2025 to Oct. 6, 2026 ▲ 22.3%Show chartHide chart
What Black Hills is building
Black Hills will build 564 megawatts of gas-fired generation at its Cheyenne Prairie plant, through an affiliate outside its regulated utility.8-K With some power bought on the market, it will supply up to 590 megawatts over the grid. It will also manage about 2.1 gigawatts (2,100 megawatts) from other Wyoming generators for Google, through a private microgrid, a separate local grid, for a management fee.8-K
Service is to start in late 2027 and reach the data center's peak load in 2030. Black Hills expects to earn a return on the plant from the start of construction in 2027. It also expects about $2.4 billion of unlevered free cash flow, cash before debt costs, through 2048, after the $1.8 billion it spends.8-K
Google has already provided $399 million of refundable advances, money for long lead-time equipment that Black Hills expects to repay by June 30, 2027.8-K
The agreements and supporting regulatory mechanisms are "structured so that Google bears all costs associated with serving the planned data center throughout the life of the project," said Linn Evans, Black Hills' president and chief executive.8-K The release also lists risks, among them securing regulatory approvals and counterparties failing to perform.8-K
View the data
| Net income | Millions of dollars | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Black Hills, all of 2025 (Net income available for common stock) | $291.6M | GAAP, from its Feb. 4, 2026 results release |
| NorthWestern Energy, all of 2025 (Net income) | $181.1M | $181,092,000, from its 2025 Form 10-K |
| The Google project, in 2030 (What Black Hills expects it to provide) | $150.0M | "Approximately $150 million of net income in 2030," Black Hills' Oct. 6 release says |
The 2030 figure is Black Hills' expectation, not a result. Sources: Black Hills' Oct. 6, 2026 and Feb. 4, 2026 releases; NorthWestern's 2025 Form 10-K.8-K10-K
What the plan said before
In February, Black Hills said its five-year plan counted 600 megawatts of data center load by 2030, from Microsoft's expansion and a new Meta AI data center.8-K It said the same in August.8-K
The same August release described progress toward agreements on an unnamed 1.8-gigawatt data center project in Cheyenne. Those agreements and others "would be additive to our plan," Evans said then.8-K On April 22, Black Hills' Wyoming utility had agreed with that project's customer to buy generation equipment, and the customer's refundable advances were raised in July to $377 million, the release said. The Oct. 6 release does not say whether Google's deal is that project.8-K8-K
Freedom Broker analyst Matvey Tayts, whose firm raised its rating on the stock, said the Google contract "changes BKH's growth profile rather than simply adding a project," Investing.com reported.Investing.com
How the merger ties the two stocks
For scale, NorthWestern's net income for all of 2025 was $181.1 million.10-K Because the swap is fixed, the gap between the two prices shows how closely NorthWestern has traded to 0.98 Black Hills share. It was widest, 6.5%, on Jan. 27, and 0.6% on Oct. 6. At 1:20 p.m. on Oct. 7 it was about 0.5%, by KeyVex's math.Gap data
How far NorthWestern traded below 0.98 Black Hills shareShow chartHide chart
View the data
| Close | NorthWestern's discount to 0.98 Black Hills share |
|---|---|
| Oct. 6, 2026 | 0.58% |
| Oct. 5, 2026 | 0.45% |
| Oct. 2, 2026 | 0.39% |
| Oct. 1, 2026 | 0.30% |
| Sept. 30, 2026 | 0.43% |
| Sept. 29, 2026 | 0.25% |
| Sept. 28, 2026 | 0.40% |
| Sept. 25, 2026 | 0.31% |
| Sept. 24, 2026 | 0.67% |
| Sept. 23, 2026 | 0.58% |
| Sept. 22, 2026 | 0.66% |
| Sept. 21, 2026 | 0.98% |
| Sept. 18, 2026 | 0.83% |
| Sept. 17, 2026 | 0.85% |
| Sept. 16, 2026 | 0.83% |
| Sept. 15, 2026 | 0.85% |
| Sept. 14, 2026 | 0.81% |
| Sept. 11, 2026 | 0.91% |
| Sept. 10, 2026 | 1.16% |
| Sept. 9, 2026 | 1.11% |
| Sept. 8, 2026 | 1.27% |
| Sept. 4, 2026 | 1.35% |
| Sept. 3, 2026 | 1.30% |
| Sept. 2, 2026 | 1.33% |
| Sept. 1, 2026 | 1.47% |
| Aug. 31, 2026 | 1.55% |
| Aug. 28, 2026 | 1.44% |
| Aug. 27, 2026 | 1.31% |
| Aug. 26, 2026 | 1.14% |
| Aug. 25, 2026 | 0.95% |
| Aug. 24, 2026 | 1.32% |
| Aug. 21, 2026 | 1.15% |
| Aug. 20, 2026 | 1.41% |
| Aug. 19, 2026 | 1.60% |
| Aug. 18, 2026 | 1.50% |
| Aug. 17, 2026 | 1.53% |
| Aug. 14, 2026 | 1.37% |
| Aug. 13, 2026 | 1.30% |
| Aug. 12, 2026 | 1.59% |
| Aug. 11, 2026 | 1.59% |
| Aug. 10, 2026 | 1.39% |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | 1.46% |
| Aug. 6, 2026 | 1.44% |
| Aug. 5, 2026 | 1.63% |
| Aug. 4, 2026 | 1.32% |
| Aug. 3, 2026 | 1.30% |
| July 31, 2026 | 1.50% |
| July 30, 2026 | 1.49% |
| July 29, 2026 | 1.22% |
| July 28, 2026 | 1.38% |
| July 27, 2026 | 1.32% |
| July 24, 2026 | 1.25% |
| July 23, 2026 | 1.42% |
| July 22, 2026 | 1.29% |
| July 21, 2026 | 1.39% |
| July 20, 2026 | 1.52% |
| July 17, 2026 | 1.45% |
| July 16, 2026 | 1.38% |
| July 15, 2026 | 1.38% |
| July 14, 2026 | 1.51% |
| July 13, 2026 | 1.46% |
| July 10, 2026 | 1.35% |
| July 9, 2026 | 1.37% |
| July 8, 2026 | 1.56% |
| July 7, 2026 | 1.44% |
| July 6, 2026 | 1.45% |
| July 2, 2026 | 1.37% |
| July 1, 2026 | 0.99% |
| June 30, 2026 | 1.77% |
| June 29, 2026 | 1.66% |
| June 26, 2026 | 1.48% |
| June 25, 2026 | 1.90% |
| June 24, 2026 | 1.80% |
| June 23, 2026 | 1.95% |
| June 22, 2026 | 2.10% |
| June 18, 2026 | 1.98% |
| June 17, 2026 | 1.93% |
| June 16, 2026 | 2.05% |
| June 15, 2026 | 2.15% |
| June 12, 2026 | 1.36% |
| June 11, 2026 | 1.26% |
| June 10, 2026 | 1.11% |
| June 9, 2026 | 1.12% |
| June 8, 2026 | 1.27% |
| June 5, 2026 | 1.20% |
| June 4, 2026 | 1.21% |
| June 3, 2026 | 1.26% |
| June 2, 2026 | 1.15% |
| June 1, 2026 | 1.13% |
| May 29, 2026 | 1.06% |
| May 28, 2026 | 1.04% |
| May 27, 2026 | 0.90% |
| May 26, 2026 | 1.13% |
| May 22, 2026 | 1.20% |
| May 21, 2026 | 1.22% |
| May 20, 2026 | 1.14% |
| May 19, 2026 | 1.19% |
| May 18, 2026 | 1.41% |
| May 15, 2026 | 1.60% |
| May 14, 2026 | 1.76% |
| May 13, 2026 | 1.91% |
| May 12, 2026 | 1.80% |
| May 11, 2026 | 1.67% |
| May 8, 2026 | 1.81% |
| May 7, 2026 | 1.77% |
| May 6, 2026 | 1.88% |
| May 5, 2026 | 1.90% |
| May 4, 2026 | 2.03% |
| May 1, 2026 | 2.03% |
| April 30, 2026 | 1.96% |
| April 29, 2026 | 2.04% |
| April 28, 2026 | 1.84% |
| April 27, 2026 | 1.66% |
| April 24, 2026 | 2.06% |
| April 23, 2026 | 2.09% |
| April 22, 2026 | 2.31% |
| April 21, 2026 | 2.15% |
| April 20, 2026 | 2.37% |
| April 17, 2026 | 2.77% |
| April 16, 2026 | 2.65% |
| April 15, 2026 | 2.22% |
| April 14, 2026 | 2.38% |
| April 13, 2026 | 2.53% |
| April 10, 2026 | 2.37% |
| April 9, 2026 | 2.51% |
| April 8, 2026 | 2.51% |
| April 7, 2026 | 2.57% |
| April 6, 2026 | 2.47% |
| April 2, 2026 | 2.63% |
| April 1, 2026 | 3.03% |
| March 31, 2026 | 3.06% |
| March 30, 2026 | 2.82% |
| March 27, 2026 | 3.13% |
| March 26, 2026 | 3.13% |
| March 25, 2026 | 3.13% |
| March 24, 2026 | 2.92% |
| March 23, 2026 | 3.00% |
| March 20, 2026 | 4.04% |
| March 19, 2026 | 3.80% |
| March 18, 2026 | 3.60% |
| March 17, 2026 | 3.55% |
| March 16, 2026 | 3.39% |
| March 13, 2026 | 3.65% |
| March 12, 2026 | 2.87% |
| March 11, 2026 | 2.56% |
| March 10, 2026 | 2.82% |
| March 9, 2026 | 2.53% |
| March 6, 2026 | 3.23% |
| March 5, 2026 | 3.38% |
| March 4, 2026 | 3.47% |
| March 3, 2026 | 2.79% |
| March 2, 2026 | 2.87% |
| Feb. 27, 2026 | 3.08% |
| Feb. 26, 2026 | 3.50% |
| Feb. 25, 2026 | 3.24% |
| Feb. 24, 2026 | 3.91% |
| Feb. 23, 2026 | 3.90% |
| Feb. 20, 2026 | 4.11% |
| Feb. 19, 2026 | 4.31% |
| Feb. 18, 2026 | 4.40% |
| Feb. 17, 2026 | 3.91% |
| Feb. 13, 2026 | 3.98% |
| Feb. 12, 2026 | 4.12% |
| Feb. 11, 2026 | 3.81% |
| Feb. 10, 2026 | 3.67% |
| Feb. 9, 2026 | 3.87% |
| Feb. 6, 2026 | 3.77% |
| Feb. 5, 2026 | 4.26% |
| Feb. 4, 2026 | 4.67% |
| Feb. 3, 2026 | 4.48% |
| Feb. 2, 2026 | 4.72% |
| Jan. 30, 2026 | 5.12% |
| Jan. 29, 2026 | 5.22% |
| Jan. 28, 2026 | 5.96% |
| Jan. 27, 2026 | 6.52% |
| Jan. 26, 2026 | 6.44% |
| Jan. 23, 2026 | 5.35% |
| Jan. 22, 2026 | 4.54% |
| Jan. 21, 2026 | 4.75% |
| Jan. 20, 2026 | 4.54% |
| Jan. 16, 2026 | 4.40% |
| Jan. 15, 2026 | 4.52% |
| Jan. 14, 2026 | 4.39% |
| Jan. 13, 2026 | 4.23% |
| Jan. 12, 2026 | 4.81% |
| Jan. 9, 2026 | 4.76% |
| Jan. 8, 2026 | 5.05% |
| Jan. 7, 2026 | 4.74% |
| Jan. 6, 2026 | 4.46% |
| Jan. 5, 2026 | 4.90% |
| Jan. 2, 2026 | 5.14% |
| Dec. 31, 2025 | 5.13% |
| Dec. 30, 2025 | 5.14% |
| Dec. 29, 2025 | 5.11% |
| Dec. 26, 2025 | 5.34% |
| Dec. 24, 2025 | 5.10% |
| Dec. 23, 2025 | 4.75% |
| Dec. 22, 2025 | 5.25% |
| Dec. 19, 2025 | 5.03% |
| Dec. 18, 2025 | 4.90% |
| Dec. 17, 2025 | 4.97% |
| Dec. 16, 2025 | 5.48% |
| Dec. 15, 2025 | 5.69% |
| Dec. 12, 2025 | 4.69% |
| Dec. 11, 2025 | 3.84% |
| Dec. 10, 2025 | 3.99% |
| Dec. 9, 2025 | 4.07% |
| Dec. 8, 2025 | 4.39% |
| Dec. 5, 2025 | 4.33% |
| Dec. 4, 2025 | 4.33% |
| Dec. 3, 2025 | 4.31% |
| Dec. 2, 2025 | 4.57% |
| Dec. 1, 2025 | 4.28% |
| Nov. 28, 2025 | 4.46% |
| Nov. 26, 2025 | 4.53% |
| Nov. 25, 2025 | 4.31% |
| Nov. 24, 2025 | 4.17% |
| Nov. 21, 2025 | 4.34% |
| Nov. 20, 2025 | 4.34% |
| Nov. 19, 2025 | 4.33% |
| Nov. 18, 2025 | 4.45% |
| Nov. 17, 2025 | 4.30% |
| Nov. 14, 2025 | 5.01% |
| Nov. 13, 2025 | 5.35% |
| Nov. 12, 2025 | 4.83% |
| Nov. 11, 2025 | 4.86% |
| Nov. 10, 2025 | 5.09% |
| Nov. 7, 2025 | 4.84% |
| Nov. 6, 2025 | 4.78% |
| Nov. 5, 2025 | 3.85% |
| Nov. 4, 2025 | 3.91% |
| Nov. 3, 2025 | 4.06% |
| Oct. 31, 2025 | 4.01% |
| Oct. 30, 2025 | 3.81% |
| Oct. 29, 2025 | 4.26% |
| Oct. 28, 2025 | 4.19% |
| Oct. 27, 2025 | 3.97% |
| Oct. 24, 2025 | 3.88% |
| Oct. 23, 2025 | 3.84% |
| Oct. 22, 2025 | 3.62% |
| Oct. 21, 2025 | 3.36% |
| Oct. 20, 2025 | 4.18% |
| Oct. 17, 2025 | 4.14% |
| Oct. 16, 2025 | 3.37% |
| Oct. 15, 2025 | 2.99% |
| Oct. 14, 2025 | 2.51% |
| Oct. 13, 2025 | 2.56% |
| Oct. 10, 2025 | 2.54% |
| Oct. 9, 2025 | 2.54% |
| Oct. 8, 2025 | 2.55% |
| Oct. 7, 2025 | 1.84% |
| Oct. 6, 2025 | 2.02% |
| Oct. 3, 2025 | 2.10% |
| Oct. 2, 2025 | 2.62% |
| Oct. 1, 2025 | 2.92% |
| Sept. 30, 2025 | 2.90% |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | 2.98% |
| Sept. 26, 2025 | 2.80% |
| Sept. 25, 2025 | 2.80% |
| Sept. 24, 2025 | 2.40% |
| Sept. 23, 2025 | 2.57% |
| Sept. 22, 2025 | 2.43% |
| Sept. 19, 2025 | 2.36% |
| Sept. 18, 2025 | 1.90% |
| Sept. 17, 2025 | 2.48% |
| Sept. 16, 2025 | 2.86% |
| Sept. 15, 2025 | 2.80% |
| Sept. 12, 2025 | 1.83% |
| Sept. 11, 2025 | 1.94% |
| Sept. 10, 2025 | 1.71% |
| Sept. 9, 2025 | 1.44% |
| Sept. 8, 2025 | 1.42% |
| Sept. 5, 2025 | 0.93% |
| Sept. 4, 2025 | 1.13% |
| Sept. 3, 2025 | 1.82% |
| Sept. 2, 2025 | 1.88% |
| Aug. 29, 2025 | 1.88% |
| Aug. 28, 2025 | 1.75% |
| Aug. 27, 2025 | 1.68% |
| Aug. 26, 2025 | 1.31% |
| Aug. 25, 2025 | 2.07% |
| Aug. 22, 2025 | 2.24% |
| Aug. 21, 2025 | 2.49% |
| Aug. 20, 2025 | 2.26% |
| Aug. 19, 2025 | 2.08% |
0% would mean a NorthWestern share cost exactly 0.98 times a Black Hills share. Source: Tiingo closes, as traded, via KeyVex; exchange ratio from the merger agreement.8-K
What Montana still has to decide
Federal regulators and Nebraska approved the merger in May, and South Dakota in June. That leaves Montana's Public Service Commission as the only regulatory approval still needed, NorthWestern said in July.Release
Monica Tranel, a lawyer for the Montana Farmers Union and 350 Montana, which oppose the merger, argues the commission should set conditions on the new parent company. On Sept. 24, before the Google announcement, the Daily Montanan reported her view that Montana's utility would be about 30% of the new company's regulated business.Daily Montanan
This is the only time this commission will touch the parent entity, and it's imperative conditions be imposed now.
One condition she gave as an example: keeping Montana's capital from shoring up problems in another state, such as a failed data center, the Daily Montanan reported.Daily Montanan She did not refer to Google or Cheyenne in that report; the Google agreements were announced 12 days later.
NorthWestern reached a settlement with some key parties in Montana in April, which the commission must approve, it said in July.Release A court challenge over whether a newly seated commissioner may vote was still pending as of Sept. 24, the Daily Montanan reported. The commission's decision is due by Oct. 12 and can be extended to Nov. 10, it reported.Daily Montanan Black Hills expects to close the merger by the end of 2026.8-K
What to watch
Montana's Public Service Commission faces its deadline to decide on the merger, the Daily Montanan reported.
The latest the commission can decide, if it extends the deadline.
When Black Hills expects the merger to close. It also plans to file for a Wyoming transmission expansion in the fourth quarter.
Black Hills expects to have repaid Google's $399 million of refundable advances.
Service to the Cheyenne data center is to begin.
The data center's planned peak load, and the year Black Hills expects about $150 million of net income from the project.
The paper trail
The filings this story rests on, Aug. 19, 2025, through Oct. 6, 2026.
| Filed (ET) | Form | Filer | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2025 | 8-K | Black Hills | Merger agreement with NorthWestern: 0.98 Black Hills share for each NorthWestern share; owners split about 56% and 44%. |
| Feb. 4, 2026 | 8-K | Black Hills | 2025 results: $291.6 million of net income for common stock; 600 MW of data center load in the five-year plan. |
| Feb. 12, 2026 | 10-K | NorthWestern | 2025 net income of $181.1 million. |
| July 30, 2026 | 8-K | NorthWestern | Second-quarter results: Montana is the merger's only remaining regulatory approval. |
| Aug. 5, 2026 | 8-K | Black Hills | Second-quarter results: 600 MW by 2030 from Microsoft and Meta; a 1.8 GW Cheyenne project would be additive. |
| Aug. 17, 2026 | 8-K | Black Hills | Pro forma combined results for the merger. |
| Oct. 6, 2026, 4:19 p.m. | 8-K | Black Hills | Agreements to serve Google's planned Cheyenne data center: $1.8 billion of generation, about $150 million of net income expected in 2030. |
Sources
12 sources, 8 of them public records
Public records
- Black Hills Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: "Black Hills Corp. Executes Definitive Agreements to Serve Google's Planned Data Center in Cheyenne, Wyoming"SEC EDGAR · Oct. 6, 2026
- Black Hills Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99: second-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · Aug. 5, 2026
- Black Hills Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 resultsSEC EDGAR · Feb. 4, 2026
- Black Hills Corp., Form 10-K for 2025SEC EDGAR · Feb. 11, 2026
- Black Hills Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: merger announcement with NorthWestern EnergySEC EDGAR · Aug. 19, 2025
- Black Hills Corp., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2: unaudited pro forma combined financial informationSEC EDGAR · Aug. 17, 2026
- NorthWestern Energy Group, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 resultsSEC EDGAR · July 30, 2026
- NorthWestern Energy Group, Form 10-K for 2025SEC EDGAR · Feb. 12, 2026
Reporting
- "Public Service Commission votes to take up merger decision with new member"Daily Montanan · Sept. 24, 2026
- "Freedom Broker upgrades Black Hills stock rating on Google data center deal"Investing.com · Oct. 7, 2026
Data
- End-of-day prices for BKH and NWE, and for SPY and QQQ on the chart; IEX quotes for BKH and NWE on Oct. 7 (Tiingo)KeyVex · through Oct. 7, 2026
- The chart's Filings layer: KeyVex's Congress trade, insider trade, 8-K and lobbying records for BKHKeyVex · through Oct. 6, 2026
How we got these numbers
- Net income figures are as reported: Black Hills' net income available for common stock (GAAP) and NorthWestern's net income for 2025. The $150 million for 2030 is Black Hills' own expectation in its Oct. 6 release, not a result. "About half" is $150 million divided by $291.6 million, 51.4%.
- Prices are end-of-day closes as traded, not adjusted for dividends. The Oct. 7 prices are Tiingo IEX quotes at 1:20 p.m. ET: Black Hills $76.945, NorthWestern $75.01. Each is compared with its Oct. 6 close ($70.74, $68.92). IEX is one exchange, and prices moved through the day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lines follow SPY and QQQ, rebased to Black Hills' close at the start of the range shown. The Filings switch shows the filing markers from KeyVex's Black Hills page, a selection of filings: not every filing, and not only those tied to this story.
- For each of 285 trading days, Aug. 19, 2025, to Oct. 6, 2026, the gap chart divides NorthWestern's close by 0.98 times Black Hills' close. It shows how far below 1 the result was, and ignores dividends either company pays before the merger closes.





